What are the codes of this deep crisis in Yemen? The process from Zaydis to the Houthis!

Oğuzcan Atış / Milliyet.com.tr – Forces affiliated with the Saudi Arabia-backed Yemen government announced that they took control of the Zubab region and surrounding strategic points in the Taiz province in the west of the country, near the Babülmandeb Strait, within the scope of the new military operation launched against the Houthis. The region was captured by the Iranian-backed Houthis as a result of the clashes last month. According to information provided by the Yemeni state agency, Saudi Arabia-backed forces regained control of the strategic Red Sea port city of Muha after fierce clashes and air support. While local sources state that Saudi Arabia's air support to Yemeni government forces is currently continuing, time will tell how the conflicts in the region will take shape. So, what is the history of the current conflicts in Yemen? From a historical perspective, what can be said about the future of current conflicts? Historian-writer Mustafa Batuhan Bozkurt talked about it for Milliyet.com.tr.

Stating that political unity has not been achieved in Yemen for centuries, Bozkurt stated that this can be noticed when looking at the geographical structure of Yemen and said, "There are wide valleys and desert areas such as Hadhramut in the east of the country, and very steep and high mountainous regions in the west. This fragmented geography has made it difficult for a single central power to establish permanent dominance over the entire country in Yemen throughout history. That is why strong local centers of power have been able to maintain their existence in different regions for a long time." He explained that it was difficult to manage the geography of Yemen during the period when the Ottoman Empire conquered the region.

'IT HAS ALWAYS BEEN A REGION ADMINISTERED BY LOCAL FORCES'

Stating that people such as Lala Mustafa Pasha were appointed in the Ottoman Empire's attempts to dominate Yemen, and Özdemiroğlu Osman Pasha actually served in the region, Bozkurt pointed out that despite this, central dominance could not be established permanently in Yemen. Bozkurt stated that the Zaydi imams gained power, especially in the north, and in the following period, the dynasty of imams called Qāsimis became one of the most important political actors in the region. Emphasizing that Yemen has always been a place governed by local forces and that this is a matter of geography, Bozkurt pointed out that the country was divided into North and South Yemen in its modern history and then united, and said, "If we look at it from this perspective, we can say that the pain of this lack of unity still continues in Yemen."

Emphasizing that Zaydism represents a different understanding of Shiism than Twelver Imam Shiism, Bozkurt stated that the sect took its name from Zeyd bin Ali, the son of Imam Zeynelabidin. Reminding that Abu Hanife, the mujtahid of the Hanafi sect, also supported the rebellion launched by Zayd bin Ali against the Umayyad rule, he explained that this rebellion was harshly suppressed and Zayd was killed. Pointing out that different understandings of imamate became more evident within the Shiite tradition after this process, Bozkurt said that the line continuing through Muhammad al-Baqir formed the basis of Twelve Imam Shiism over time. He stated that in this tradition, imams continue in a certain lineage and are considered innocent, while Zaydis developed a different understanding of imamate. Accordingly, the imam had to be from the Ahl al-Bayt lineage, have justice and scientific competence, openly declare his claim to imamate, and be able to gather support around him.

For this reason, Bozkurt stated that the Zaydite understanding of imamate has a character that is more open to political struggle and the demand for actual power, and noted that a more cautious line against political authority has developed over time in Twelve Imam Shiism. He added that an important element in the Zaydi tradition is that the imam takes action against the administration and claims power when necessary. Stating that Zaydism has established close contacts with the Sunni tradition in some legal and theological issues, Bozkurt stated that this is especially seen in the relations established throughout history with Hanafism and Mu'tazila. Stating that Yahya bin Hüseyin, known as Hâdî-İlelhak, came to the Sa'da region in 897 and established authority among the local tribes, Bozkurt explained that the Hâdeviyye tradition, one of the main branches of Yemeni Zaydism, was also shaped in this process.

"Of course, Zaydism is not dominant in Yemen to the same extent in every period; it sometimes strengthens and sometimes retreats. During the Ottoman period, Qāsimi imams especially came to the fore and established a strong political authority in the north of Yemen. The important thing here is not to confuse the Zaydis with today's Houthi movement. Zaydis are a religious and political tradition that has existed in the region for centuries; Houthis are much more recent. It is a modern movement that emerged from this environment. The coffee trade carried out through the Muha Port during the Qāsimi period significantly increases the economic power of Yemen. The name of the word 'mocha' that we use today comes from the Muha Port. At the beginning of the 20th century, the Zaydi imamate revolted against the Ottoman rule. İsmet İnönü was among the Ottoman officers who took part in this process, which was shaped by the rebellion of Imam Yahya. Yahya did not launch a new rebellion against the Ottomans during the First World War. After the Ottoman Empire withdrew from the region, the Zaydi Imamate established its own state in North Yemen and became one of the main local powers in the region against British influence.”—Historian-writer Mustafa Batuhan Bozkurt.

HOW DID THE ZAIDIS TURN INTO THE HOUTHI?

Stating that education and youth movements aimed at strengthening the Zaydi identity against the Salafi movements spreading from Saudi Arabia in the Sa'da region of Yemen in the 1990s played an important role in the emergence of the Houthis, Bozkurt said that this circle became politicized around Hussein Bedreddin al-Houthi over time. Stating that today's movement took its name from the al-Hûsî family, he emphasized that the Houthis are a modern movement that emerged from the Zaydi tradition but turned into an independent political and military structure over time.

Yemenis holding a banner of Abdul Malik al-Houthi, the current leader of the Houthis

Stating that the Houthis started to establish contact with Iran since the 1990s, but that this relationship gained a more distinct and institutional character, especially in the following years, Bozkurt said, "We see that Iran has established political and strategic relations not only with groups belonging to the Twelver Imam Shiism in the region, but also with movements from different sectarian traditions. Over time, the Houthis have become one of the important actors of this regional network, which is called the 'Axis of Resistance' today."

'THE ISSUE IS WHO WILL MANAGE THE MERGER'

Stating that he does not expect Yemen to be permanently divided into North and South as in the past, Bozkurt said that the political history of the country makes it difficult to make definitive judgments on this issue. Pointing out that the Houthis have today turned into an effective political-military actor on both a local and regional scale, similar to Hezbollah in Lebanon, he said:

"I do not expect Yemen to be permanently divided into two, but that geography is always open to surprises. In the past, anti-colonial movements led to the establishment of a socialist state in South Yemen, and the first and only Marxist state of the Arab Geography was established in Yemen. In fact, the Dhofar uprising, supported by socialist South Yemen, had progressed to the point of giving rise to the possibility of a Marxist movement with strong Maoist influences coming to power in Oman. However, foreign interventions, especially Britain, also took place." "With its influence, the Sultanate's administration was strengthened and the rebellion was suppressed. Today, the Houthis have an advantage that can directly affect world trade through the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandap. We may see a de facto divided Yemen in the short or medium term, but I do not think this will be permanent. The North and the South have clashed in the past and then united again. In my opinion, the main issue is not whether Yemen will be united, but under which political power it will be united."

Reminding that the tension between Saudi Arabia and Yemen has a long history, Bozkurt stated that for Riyadh, the emergence of a strong Houthi administration that has established close relations with Iran on the southern border poses an important security problem. He stated that Yemen is not a new arena of regional power struggles, and that the south of Arabia has become a part of wider geopolitical competitions since the Sassanid period.

Stating that the Houthis are currently positioned within the "Axis of Resistance" against Israel and the USA, Bozkurt pointed out that at a time when some of the Arab states in the region are taking steps towards normalization with Israel and greater integration into the global economic system, the genocide in Gaza and the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea that started in response to this have made this process more complicated. He stated that although the United States wants to shift its strategic weight to the Asia-Pacific in the long term, the crises in the Middle East continue to keep Washington in the region, and noted that the Yemen issue has therefore become a broad regional problem that cannot be explained only by the balance of power within the country.