Xi Jinping’s visit to the United States focuses on trade, technology and Taiwan. Xu Yuren reminds Taiwan to pay attention to four major observation points

Chinese President Xi Jinping arrived in Washington on the 23rd local time in the United States for a three-day visit. Xu Yuren, a senior researcher at a Washington think tank and former legislator, pointed out that the hotel where Xi Jinping collapsed is opposite the think tank where he works. Currently, fences have been erected around the hotel, and a large number of supporters and opponents have gathered. He also reminded that Taiwan should pay close attention to the "four specific observation points" and pay attention to whether the United States and China are engaging in exchanges of interests under the table. In addition, compare the post-meeting press releases from the White House and Xinhua News Agency. If the U.S. statement changes from "not supporting Taiwan independence" to "opposing Taiwan independence," or if only the Chinese version contains the Taiwan paragraph and the U.S. does not refute it, this is a warning sign.

Xu Yuren posted on Facebook today that Xi Jinping will arrive at the White House on the 24th, U.S. time. This will be his first visit to the United States in ten years. The outside world focused this ten-year-old high-level meeting on the "three Ts" - Trade, Technology and Taiwan. Xu said that the urgency of the AI ​​issue has increased significantly in this meeting, and his judgment is that there will be "small agreements" but not "big deals." Possible negotiations include a U.S.-China AI dialogue mechanism, etc., or a reaffirmation that "decisions on the use of nuclear weapons must be controlled by humans." In addition, there will be limited information exchange on non-state actors using AI to launch cyber attacks and develop biological weapons.

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And major issues including export controls, model distillation disputes, slowing down development, national security framework, governance dominance and other major issues may not be able to reach an agreement.

As for what Taiwan should pay attention to, Xu Yuren pointed out that what Taiwan should pay most attention to is not the AI ​​provisions themselves, but whether AI, chips, and arms sales will be put into the same transaction package. The four points to observe include: 1. The gap between Taiwan’s wording and the press releases from both sides. 2. The whereabouts of US$14 billion in arms sales. 3. The spillover effects of loosened chip controls. 4. Whether the AI ​​hotline covers the Taiwan Strait.

Xu Yuren said that he compared the post-meeting press releases from the White House and Xinhua News Agency. If the U.S. statement changes from "not supporting Taiwan independence" to "opposing Taiwan independence," or if only the Chinese version contains the Taiwan paragraph and the U.S. does not refute it, this is a warning sign. Trump's off-the-cuff remarks often carry higher risks than formal documents. In addition, the US$14 billion arms sales to Taiwan are still awaiting final approval. If there are vague statements such as "postponement" or "re-examination" after the summit, it means that arms sales have become bargaining chips. The timing is worth noting.