Renewed violence in the Ethiopian Tigray region and the collapse of the peace agreement

About four years ago, a peace agreement ended a brutal war in Ethiopia's northern Tigray region, one of the bloodiest conflicts of the 21st century. Now, violence has returned, but the front lines have changed.

Tigray rebels are fighting against the federal government again, while forces that were once enemies fight side by side.

On Wednesday, Tigray forces seized three airports that were under the control of the federal government, just as fighting broke out in the neighboring Amhara and Afar regions.

These hostilities undermined the 2022 peace agreement, which ended a war estimated to have killed some 600,000 people. Relations between the federal government and Tigray's leaders have been deteriorating for months.

It remains unclear what sparked the latest fighting, with both sides giving conflicting accounts of its beginning.

The Tigray regional government said that federal forces launched the attack first, and that it had ordered its forces to respond, describing it as a "defensive war." On the other hand, Getachew Reda, advisor to Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, said that the Tigray People's Liberation Front launched a "comprehensive attack" on government sites in Afar and Amhara, and took control of the three airports in Tigray, accusing the Front of taking its irresponsible practices to "new levels."

The renewed violence this week comes after nearly two months of limited clashes. The Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED), a non-governmental organization, said that fighting between Tigray forces and federal forces began near the Ethiopian border with Sudan on August 1. Both sides also accused each other of starting those clashes.

According to the organization, this was followed by drone strikes by federal forces, and movements by Tigray forces, which pushed tanks and artillery south this month.

Ethiopian Airlines suspended all flights to Tigray after taking control of the airports.

How did Ethiopia reach this stage?

The Tigray People's Liberation Front was once the most powerful political force in Ethiopia. It dominated the coalition that ruled the country for about three decades, even though Tigrayans make up a relatively small percentage of Ethiopia's population.

That changed after Abiy Ahmed took over as prime minister in 2018, following years of anti-government protests. Abiy Ahmed made political reforms and concluded a peace agreement with neighboring Eritrea, which earned him the Nobel Peace Prize a year later.

But relations with the Tigray People's Liberation Front deteriorated. In 2019, Abiy Ahmed replaced the old ruling coalition with the Prosperity Party, and the Front refused to join it.

After the national elections were postponed due to the “Covid-19” pandemic, the Tigray region held its own regional elections despite the objections of Addis Ababa.

In November 2020, Tigray forces attacked federal government military bases in the region. Abiy Ahmed sent forces to the region, then Eritrean forces and Amhara fighters participated alongside the federal army.

By the war's end two years later, millions of people had been displaced from their homes, and parts of Tigray were pushed to the brink of famine. Both sides have faced accusations of serious human rights violations.

Why did the peace agreement fail?

Hostilities ended when the federal government and the Tigray People's Liberation Front signed an African Union-brokered agreement in Pretoria, South Africa, on 2 November 2022.

Under the agreement, Tigray forces were to hand over their weapons, and federal authority would return to the region. The agreement also stipulated the resumption of humanitarian aid and basic services, and a transitional administration was later established to govern Tigray until elections were held.

But key disputes remain, including the dispute over territory claimed by both Tigray and Amhara, and the return of people displaced by the war. Meanwhile, Eritrea, whose forces fought alongside federal forces, was not a party to the agreement.

Sorafil Getahun, an Ethiopian researcher in geopolitical affairs, told CNN: “The agreement did not collapse overnight, but was systematically emptied of its content over a period of three years.”

Getahun added that both sides bear responsibility. He accused the federal government of not implementing key parts of the agreement, including the return of displaced people, and the Tigray People's Liberation Front of violating it by regaining control of the regional administration and rebuilding its military forces.

The Tigray People's Liberation Front was also divided by an internal power struggle, further weakening the peace process. Rival factions emerged around the head of the Front, Debretsion Gebremichael, and the head of the transitional administration in Tigray, Getachew Reda, who was one of the Front's top officials. Gebremichael Redda's faction later expelled him from the party, and Abiy appointed Ahmed as the new leader of the transitional administration in April 2025.

A month later, Gebremichael's faction regained control of the Tigray government. He restored the regional legislative council that had existed before the war, and appointed Gebremichael as president of the region.

On Sunday, the Tigray People's Liberation Front joined six other armed groups in a new coalition seeking to overthrow Abiy Ahmed's government and establish a transitional administration. The coalition includes former enemies who fought on both sides of the conflict in the last war.

Tigray People's Liberation Front spokesman Michael Asghedom told The Associated Press that the groups will cooperate politically and militarily. When asked whether joining the coalition violated the Pretoria Agreement, Asghedom said the agreement was “no longer valid.”

The Amhara nationalist Fano movement fought alongside the federal government against the Tigray People's Liberation Front during the last war, before turning against it in 2023. The Oromo Liberation Army, which has long been fighting Abiy Ahmed's government in the Oromia region, is also a member of the coalition.

Reuters reported on Wednesday that Tigray forces are fighting alongside the Fano group in Amhara and a local armed group in Afar.

But Getahun doubted the alliance's ability to last for long.

The Tigray People's Liberation Front and Fano remain divided over disputed territories, particularly western Tigray, and coalition members have different political and military goals.

“This is a temporary marriage of convenience against a common enemy, not a long-term political agreement,” Getahun said.

Belene Seyoum, Abiy Ahmed's spokeswoman, told Reuters on Monday that the groups were already cooperating with financial support from Eritrea. Relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea have deteriorated since the two countries' forces fought together in the previous war, although the Eritrean government has repeatedly denied supporting Ethiopian armed groups.

The African Union said on Wednesday that controlling airports contradicts the Pretoria Agreement, and urged both parties to reduce the escalation. He also requested the help of former Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo, who helped broker the 2022 agreement.

Could the war spread to other regions?

Tigray has not yet recovered from the previous war, with local communities still rebuilding what the war destroyed, and many displaced people still unable to return to their homes.

Ethiopia is already facing armed conflicts in Amhara and Oromia, and the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project says the federal army was "exhausted" before renewed fighting with the Tigray People's Liberation Front. However, the armed groups included in the new coalition differ in their combat capabilities. Many groups lack the organization or recruits necessary to launch large-scale operations, while others remain largely confined to local areas, according to the organization.

There is also a risk that the Eritrean army will become involved in the fighting. Tensions have escalated between the two countries due to Ethiopia's efforts to gain access to the Red Sea, including through the Eritrean port of Assab. The African Union urged neighboring countries to avoid any moves that could lead to inflaming the conflict.

The region is already facing the repercussions of the war in Sudan, along with ongoing tensions between Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan over the Nile River.

Getahun warned that the current fighting could become more destructive than the previous conflict.

“A renewed war will likely end up being much bloodier and more widespread than the fighting between 2020 and 2022,” he said.