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台南市議員第11選區選情分析:9搶6競爭激烈
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自由时报49 minutes agoPolitics2 min readChina

台南市議員第11選區選情分析:9搶6競爭激烈

人口成長帶動名額增加,現任者力拚連霸,多位挑戰者捲土重來

Quick Look

台南市議員第11選區因人口增長,應選名額增至6席。現任議員郭鴻儀、鄭佳欣、陳皇宇、杜素吟、吳禹寰力拚連霸,加上許又仁、翁語含、劉正昌及新人郭如芳,形成9搶6激烈戰局。

AI-generated summary

Why It Matters

台南市第11選區(南關線)在總統與市長選舉中綠營優勢明顯,但在議員選舉中無黨籍候選人長期表現強勢。

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台南議員選舉第11選區因人口成長,應選名額從原本的5席再增1席,包含現任的民進黨籍郭鴻儀、鄭佳欣、陳皇宇,以及無黨籍杜素吟、吳禹寰,力拚連霸,4年前落選頭的無黨籍許又仁,還有改披國民黨戰袍的翁語含與台聯的劉正昌等都捲土重來,8人是老面孔,加上全新參選的郭如芳,形成9搶6,競爭激烈。

第11選區涵蓋仁德、歸仁、關廟、龍崎等,也稱為「南關線」,總統、立委、市長等選舉中,基本盤一向綠大於藍,又有「民主聖地」封號,但在議員之爭,反而由無黨籍選將佔上風,民進黨起初不具優勢,持續努力下,直到4年前,席次才首度過半。

尋求8連霸的資深老將杜素吟,以及前縣議長吳健保之子吳禹寰在最近2屆的得票數都在領先群,實力可見一斑;民進黨維持原有的3席提名,郭鴻儀、鄭佳欣、陳皇宇4年來積極深耕,問政表現與地方經營深獲鄉親肯定,再拚「全壘打」,5位現任勤跑基層,時常在各大公開活動同框、合影,服務口碑不錯,選情都被看好。

許又仁4年前不到600票的些微差距落敗,重整旗鼓,持續走訪基層,凝聚支持者,原本實力就不弱,加上該選區席次增加,也被認為頗有機會;第3度角逐市議員的翁語含,之前都以無黨籍參選,鎩羽而歸,後來轉入藍營,今年再戰,希望爭取政黨支持者的死忠票源;縣市合併迄今,在議員的選舉上,南關線一直是國民黨的苦戰區,前3屆都僅提1席,仍無法當選,這次再推人選,得票數能否突破,備受關注。

郭如芳原規劃以民眾黨參選,最終卻用無黨籍登記;劉正昌曾以民進黨當選第2屆市議員,爭取連任失利,睽違8年,轉由台聯身份「重出江湖」。

What to Watch

AI outlook — possibilities, not facts

  • 第11選區應選名額增加至6席,將由9名候選人爭奪。

    Very likely · Within months

Open Questions

  • 國民黨候選人翁語含能否突破藍營在該選區的苦戰困境?
  • 新人郭如芳的參選對現任者選票的影響程度為何?

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