Rising oil prices continue to worry markets and investors. After renewed attacks on Saudi Arabia and on ships in the Persian Gulf, these increased sharply. At the start of the week, crude oil prices temporarily rose by up to 3.9 percent to more than $108 per barrel, but then gave up some of the gains. West Texas Intermediate, the American reference variety, was trading near $103. Investors feared that oil prices could remain high for a longer period of time and thus fuel inflation worldwide.
The Dax got off to a weaker start to the week. “With every further surge in oil prices, there is growing concern that inflation could be fueled and the central banks could be put under pressure,” said market analyst Timo Emden from the broker Captrader. The DAX remains caught in the tension of an uncertainty cocktail of geopolitical risks, monetary policy question marks and AI concerns.
The dollar rose on Monday, US government bonds performed inconsistently. Gold temporarily fell by almost one percent and was trading at just over $4,300 per troy ounce. “The geopolitical risk premium has returned to the crude oil market with full force,” wrote DZ Bank analyst Linda Yu.
She sees the escalating military confrontation in the Middle East as the main driver. “Even with military escort, passage for merchant ships remains extremely risky,” Yu said. Now the alternative routes across the Bab al-Mandab Strait came under increasing pressure. The consequences are already noticeable: Saudi Arabia's production collapsed in August because plants had to be shut down after drone attacks and there was a lack of transport capacity.
According to the analyst, there is no imminent relief in sight. “As long as the attacks continue and the Strait of Hormuz remains impassable, oil prices are likely to remain elevated,” says Yu. If the attacks in the Red Sea intensify or further energy systems are damaged, there could even be a risk of another price jump in the short term.
“New, escalating skirmishes between America and Iran are having a huge impact on the stock market mood,” notes Robert Halver from Baader Bank. According to him, the world may have to get used to an oil price even above $100. “Because there are no signs that Iran is ready for real negotiations.”
Because of oil and natural gas prices and the sharp rise in yields, Commerzbank expects the consolidation to continue. “Since the reporting season only picks up again in October, macro data and geopolitical factors in particular are likely to cause movement on the stock markets,” said analyst André Sadowsky.
At the start of the week, the markets priced in a probability of almost 90 percent that the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates on Wednesday. The US Federal Reserve will meet this Wednesday. The ECB already raised interest rates last week. “After the slight upside surprise in core inflation in the current inflation figures published on Friday, an interest rate move by the Fed is priced in at around 87 percent,” reports Leon Ferdinand Bost from Metzler. “We do not believe that the committee can oppose the financial markets on Wednesday.”
