◎ Ma Zhunwei
From July 16 to 20, 2026, Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul paid an official visit to China. He went to Shanghai, Chengdu and Beijing, and met with Chinese President Xi Jinping, Premier Li Qiang and Chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress Zhao Leji. He also attended the "2026 World Artificial Intelligence Conference" in Shanghai. This is Anutin's first official visit to China after taking office as Prime Minister, and it is also an important high-level interaction in the 51st year of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and Thailand. In addition to issuing a joint statement "Towards a Prosperous China-Thailand Community with a Shared Future", the two sides also signed 15 cooperation documents, covering the fields of economy and trade, science and technology, education, public health, anti-money laundering, Beidou satellite, nuclear fusion and deep space exploration, showing that China-Thailand relations are gradually transforming from traditional economic and trade cooperation to a comprehensive strategic cooperation on the three tracks of "economy, security and science and technology".
In the past, Thailand's diplomacy has always been highly flexible, maintaining a balance among major powers such as the United States, China, and Japan. In particular, Thailand, as an ally of the United States, has not completely turned to Beijing due to the deepening of China-Thailand economic and trade relations. However, this visit brought a turning point. The two sides decided to establish a "2+2 ministerial dialogue mechanism" between the ministers of foreign affairs and defense. This arrangement means that China-Thailand interaction is no longer limited to economy, trade, tourism and infrastructure, but is turning to strategic security dialogue. In fact, the two sides agreed to deepen military exchanges, joint exercises, personnel training, information exchange, defense technology and non-traditional security cooperation. From a regional strategic perspective, this will increase China's influence on Thailand's security policy, and may also enable Bangkok to adopt a more obvious "two-sided engagement" strategy in the future competition between the United States and China, increasing its own diplomatic room for maneuver.
At this meeting, the two sides signed 15 agreements, covering emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence education, intellectual property rights, Beidou navigation, nuclear fusion and deep space exploration. In the past, China's investment in Thailand was mainly based on infrastructure construction and manufacturing, but now it is gradually turning to high-tech industrial chain absorption. For Thailand, if it can use Chinese capital, technology and market to accelerate industrial upgrading, it will help strengthen its status as a manufacturing center in Southeast Asia; but on the other hand, the large-scale entry of Chinese companies, especially electric vehicles, digital technology and electronics industries, may also further increase the dependence of Thai industries on the Chinese supply chain.
In recent years, telecommunications fraud, human trafficking, money laundering and cross-border crimes have become increasingly serious problems at the borders of Thailand, Myanmar and Cambodia, and have become an important domestic political issue in Thailand. This time, Thailand and China specifically agreed to strengthen the exchange of intelligence, financial transactions and criminal investigation information, and jointly combat online fraud, human trafficking and money laundering. This kind of cooperation meets Thailand's domestic governance needs, but it also allows China to gradually establish closer institutional cooperation with the law enforcement, security and intelligence agencies of Southeast Asian countries through cross-border crime management, thus expanding Beijing's role in the security governance system of the Indo-China Peninsula.
The "China-Thailand Joint Statement" proposed to strengthen coordination in multilateral structures such as "ASEAN-China", "Lancang-Mekong" cooperation and ACMECS. China is trying to extend bilateral relations to the level of regional governance of the Mekong River and ASEAN. For Thailand, deepening cooperation with China will increase its diplomatic leverage in dealing with issues involving Thailand, Cambodia, Myanmar, and the Mekong River. However, Bangkok must still be careful to avoid overreliance on Beijing, otherwise it may reduce its long-term strategic autonomy between the United States and China.
In the joint statement between Thailand and China, Thailand reiterated the "one-China policy" and recognized the government of the People's Republic of China as the only legal government representing all of China. It also included more political words such as "supports peaceful reunification" and "does not support any form of Taiwan independence." Although this does not mean that Thailand will completely follow China's Taiwan policy, Beijing is clearly using high-level diplomacy and economic and trade cooperation to require Southeast Asian countries to give a clearer political stance on issues involving Taiwan and other "core interests." Obvious examples include Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar's "theory of military reunification of Taiwan" not long ago. Taiwan should prevent ASEAN countries from biasing their stance on the Taiwan Strait due to deepening cooperation with China.
The Anutin government is continuing Thailand's traditional flexible diplomacy. As the competition between the United States and China intensifies, it maintains the United States in terms of security, deepens China in the economy, emphasizes the centrality of ASEAN in diplomacy, and maintains the maximum space for strategic autonomy through multi-party exchanges. As China's influence continues to enter the Indochina Peninsula, Thailand is adjusting its strategic balance in the competition between the United States and China. This change may affect future regional security in South Asia and also affect the Taiwan Strait, which deserves continued attention.
