Brazil is preparing for tense presidential elections between Lula da Silva and Flavio Bolsonaro

Voters in Brazil, which is witnessing a sharp division, are preparing to elect a new president on Sunday, in light of a heated competition between the current left-wing president, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, and the right-wing senator, Flavio Bolsonaro.

About 159 million people are eligible to cast their votes.

It is not expected that any of the candidates most likely to win will obtain the absolute majority needed to win decisively in the first round, which makes a runoff between them on October 25 likely.

The campaign focused on crime, the role of the state, the independence of the Supreme Court, and relations with the United States.

On the eve of the start of the first round of elections, Lula da Silva and his conservative rival concluded their election campaigns, on Saturday, with field tours to mobilize their supporters.

Lula da Silva (80 years old), who is seeking a fourth non-consecutive presidential term, chose the city of Sao Paulo in the southeast of the country to communicate with his voters.

Lula addressed his supporters, saying: “Tomorrow we will win the elections in the first round.”

Sao Paulo is the city where Lula da Silva concluded his election campaign four years ago, when he narrowly won in the second round over the far-right Jair Bolsonaro, the father of his main rival this year.

Jair Montero (60 years old) told Agence France-Presse while waiting for the president to arrive in the largest city in Latin America: “This last battle for Lula is like my personal battle.”

As for Flavio Bolsonaro (45 years old), he is participating in a motorcycle rally about 400 kilometers away.

He hopes to benefit from the conservative wave that has swept Latin America in recent years, as happened in Argentina and Colombia. US President Donald Trump is following the elections “closely.”

“Don't vote in two batches, do it all at once this Sunday,” Bolsonaro said in a video posted before the motorcycle rally.

“We need immediate change,” said Bolsonaro supporter Marcelo Berisime, a 50-year-old shop owner.

The latest opinion polls show a close proximity between the two main candidates, indicating that deciding the race between them will likely require a second round, which will be on October 25.

“Let's make Lula president again.”

In São Paulo, among the crowds of Lula’s supporters who wore red, the color of the Workers’ Party to which he belongs, some wore hats or wore T-shirts bearing the phrase “Make Lula President Again,” winking from the channel of Trump’s slogan “Make America Great Again.”

“Trump wants to make Brazil his backyard, and we have to stop him at all costs,” said Adriana Lima, a 44-year-old teacher. “That’s why these elections are important.”

Lula raised the slogan of sovereignty during his election campaign, and accused the Trump administration of seeking to seize Brazil's resources, including rare minerals.

Thiago Lororito, a 35-year-old accountant, said: “Brazil needs someone to defend the colors of our flag, not someone who wants to hand them over to the United States.”

Trump has not publicly expressed his support for Flavio Bolsonaro, but he received him at the White House in May.

Trump is an ally of Jair Bolsonaro, who is currently under house arrest after being sentenced to 27 years in prison for attempting a coup.

“Trump should intervene”

Eliane Boscolo (47 years old), who wore a T-shirt bearing the words “God, Family, Homeland,” commented: “Trump should intervene.” (...) We do not live in a democracy today. We, the common people, cannot even live a decent life.”

Elian joined a park in the town of Santa Barbara Dueste, where motorcycles and ATVs were lined up in preparation for the procession, which was called the “Victory Parade.” The procession, led by Flavio Bolsonaro, is scheduled to travel approximately 20 kilometers to the neighboring town of Americana.

Lula and Bolsonaro exchanged continuous attacks during the election campaign, without recording direct confrontations between them during televised debates.

Flavio Bolsonaro seeks to exploit popular discontent with the government after 4 years during which the right held the left responsible for the high cost of living and insecurity.

The electoral debate was not limited to exchanging ideas, but rather it went beyond shedding light on various scandals, affecting even the conservative senator, who is in turn subject to investigation on charges of corruption and money laundering.

On the eve of the first round, some are still hesitant to make their decision, such as Patricia Catherine de Souza (35 years old), a resident of Rio de Janeiro, who said: “This political debate, for me, is a waste of time. But since the elections are tomorrow, I am studying things carefully so that I can vote wisely, lest I regret it later.”

The electoral campaign for the first round of the Brazilian presidential elections scheduled for Sunday is approaching its end, amid a tense atmosphere that saw a television debate canceled at the last minute.

Leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (80 years old) is seeking a fourth non-consecutive presidential term, while his main competitor will be right-wing Senator Flavio Bolsonaro (45 years old), the son of the far-right former president Jair Bolsonaro (2019-2022).

US President Donald Trump said that he is following these “extremely important” elections in the largest country in Latin America “very closely,” according to Agence France-Presse.

Latin America has recently witnessed a remarkable rise of the right, with candidates who enjoy Trump's support coming to power, as in Colombia and Peru.

Lula is slightly ahead of Bolsonaro in opinion polls, but it appears that the competition will be intense between the two most likely candidates if a second round of elections is held on October 25.

In this second round, an opinion poll conducted by the Datafolha Foundation showed the current president’s lead in voting intentions by 48 percent, compared to 45 percent for his competitor.

TV Globo, the largest television network in Brazil, announced on Thursday evening that it had canceled its presidential debate at the last minute, shortly after Flavio Bolsonaro withdrew from it.

Lula had previously indicated that he would be absent from the debate, thus avoiding falling into the trap of confrontation with Bolsonaro's son and other less prominent right-wing candidates.

Flavio, through the “X” platform, denounced the “censorship” of the Supreme Electoral Court, which ruled that it is not permissible to leave an empty chair in the studio to indicate Lula’s absence. He believed that the court’s decision constituted “judicial interference in the elections.” Which leads to an “imbalance.”

Tensions later worsened after a backpack thrown in front of the Supreme Court in Brasilia raised fears that it contained an explosive device, before police officers ruled out any danger.

The court building is located in the famous “Three Powers” ​​Square in Brasilia, which also hosts the Planalto Presidential Palace and the Parliament.

Controversy over the country's patron saint

In the final phase of the election campaign, controversy erupted over Our Lady of Aparecida, the patron saint of Brazil, which has the second highest percentage of Christians in the world.

Publications widely circulated on social media stated that Bolsonaro would remove the title of patron saint of the country from Our Lady of Aparecida if he came to power. The majority of members of the Electoral Court approved, in an electronic vote, an order deleting these publications.

This issue is considered sensitive in a country where Our Lady of Aparecida is of great importance to Catholics, who are the majority and most likely to support Lula, according to opinion polls.

The controversial posts were based on a bill introduced by a conservative member of Congress in 2007, aimed at restricting the veneration of Our Lady of Aparecida to Catholics, but it was frozen the following year, and Lula stressed that “insulting Our Lady of Aparecida is unacceptable.”

"Sovereignty"

During the election campaign, Lula presented himself as a defender of Brazil's “sovereignty,” accusing Trump of trying to interfere in the elections.

Last year, Washington imposed high customs duties on Brazil, citing a persecution campaign against Jair Bolsonaro, who was sentenced to 27 years in prison for trying to overthrow Lula in 2022.

Brazilian Attorney General Jorge Messias asked the police on Thursday to investigate a plan attributed to the US government to use public funds to promote the “far-right agenda” in Brazil.

The reason for this measure is due to an article published in the British newspaper The Guardian, which reported that Washington had allocated one million dollars to fund civil society organizations opposed to the Brazilian Supreme Court.

This Sunday, Brazilians will go to the polls in the first round of the presidential and legislative elections, in which current President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is trying to renew his term for the third time, in a heated confrontation against the far-right candidate Flavio Bolsonaro, whom the administration of US President Donald Trump is betting on to expand the circle of expansion of right-wing regimes loyal to Washington in Latin America. Trump has publicly supported right-wing candidates who won elections in Chile, Colombia and Peru in recent months.

In the speech he delivered last week before the United Nations General Assembly, the Brazilian President warned against foreign interference in the affairs of states, and said that “Brazil cannot be accommodated by any backyard,” in a clear reference to the efforts made by the Trump administration publicly to help his rival win.

All polls published so far indicate that Lula has a slight lead over Bolsonaro in the first round, which requires going to a second round whose fate depends on the alliances that each party can establish with other parties and forces.

In the first round, Lula (80 years old) has a slight lead over Senator Bolsonaro (45 years old), the son of former far-right President Jair Bolsonaro.

Jair Bolsonaro nominated his son Flavio as a presidential candidate after he was sentenced to 27 years in prison. Flavio, who was not widely known until recently, presents himself as a "moderate" version of his father. He promised to pursue a strict policy in combating crime, pledging to build huge prisons subject to maximum security.

Many registered voters have not yet decided on their choices, following a campaign dominated by scandals that shook both camps. Joel da Silva (42 years old), a doorman in Rio de Janeiro who had previously voted for both Lula and Jair Bolsonaro in previous elections, told Agence France-Presse: “I have not made up my mind yet, because corruption is so blatant, it is difficult.” It is likely that about 160 million voters will have to decide the competition between the most likely candidates in a second round on October 25.

Lula, one of the most prominent symbols of the left in the world, returned to power remarkably in 2023, after spending a period in prison following his conviction for corruption, before the sentences were later overturned for procedural reasons related to jurisdiction.

In his statements and the speeches he delivered at his election festivals, Lula appears confident of victory, and is betting on continuing the political and economic program he put in place for his current term, which is based on a generous package of aid for poor and modest families, and strengthening the health insurance system, most of whose services were cut off by former President Jair Bolsonaro, in addition to an ambitious plan to support the industrial and infrastructure sector, and giving the federal security services broad powers to maintain security, which constitutes a major concern for Brazilians, and the focus of his rival’s program. Which calls for the armed forces to be freed to confront violence in cities.

Lula summarizes his electoral program with the following slogan: a greater role for the state in supporting social policies and investing in key public facilities to reduce disparities among the population. The program is based on 4 main axes: These are sovereignty, the democratic system, the participation of local communities, and the reduction of social disparities.

On the security level, Lula proposes a program that completely contradicts Bolsonaro’s program, which is based on tightening repressive measures and penalties and facilitating the possession of weapons for the civilian population and the conditions for their use. He proposes focusing on intelligence information, enhancing cooperation between the security services and the judiciary, drying up sources of funding for criminal organizations, and ensuring civil rights.

Lula's program includes a plan to put all security agencies under one cloak, allocating $10 billion to finance equipping the police with modern technological equipment, and using cameras on the security forces' uniforms to monitor the abuses that have spread widely in recent years and caused hundreds of deaths.

Among the new measures included in Lula's program is an increase in taxes on major wealth and Brazilian companies abroad, to finance investment in infrastructure and increase the productive capacity of the industrial sector, which has witnessed a decline in the recent period. The program focuses on enhancing the production of medicines locally to reduce dependence on abroad, and not to repeat the crisis that Brazil suffered during the “Covid” pandemic, which caused a very large number of victims due to the lack of timely availability of vaccines and therapeutic medicines.

Environmental policy also constitutes one of the basic pillars of Lula's program, especially since his first term fell short of the expectations and hopes placed upon him to combat forest degradation and unjust cutting in the Amazon forest, which is considered the "lungs of the world" and alone produces 10 percent of the Earth's oxygen. The measures included in the program aim to stop the deterioration of Brazilian forests once and for all within the year 2030. The program also includes a package of projects to achieve full national sovereignty over energy resources and ways to extract them, and self-sufficiency in sensitive minerals.

However, the interest of the Lula camp in the final stage of the electoral campaign remains focused on the possibilities of American interference in the electoral process, which the intelligence services had raised to the maximum degree, in addition to fears that Washington would impose new economic sanctions on Brazil if the competition in the second round was, as expected, between Lula and Bolsonaro. Lula had relatively succeeded in calming the atmosphere that was at its most tense between Brazil and the United States after the intense pressure exerted by Donald Trump to prevent the Brazilian president from being referred to trial, and he held two meetings with the American president that contributed to resolving some of the hot issues between the two parties.