German MP Kiesewitter: The situation in the Taiwan Strait will face challenges from 2027 to 2029

Roderich, a German member of parliament and foreign affairs expert of the ruling Christian Democratic Union (CDU), visited Taiwan for the third time in mid-September this year. Kiesewetter, who wore a brooch with the Taiwanese flag on his suit in an interview with Deutsche Welle on September 17, said that Taiwan is an important country. If Western countries are overwhelmed by the Russia-Ukraine war, the situation in the Taiwan Strait will face challenges when Europe, the United States and Taiwan hold important elections from 2027 to 2029.

Kisevit said China was supporting Russia's horrific war in Ukraine, in which it also had support from North Korea and Iran. These CRINK countries (referred to as China, Russia, Iran and North Korea) are fighting against the rules-based international order. "We must choose sides and make a clear commitment to support those countries that support the rules-based international order."

When asked about China's previous warning that China might attack Taiwan in the next 10 years as the West is exhausted by the Russia-Ukraine war, how is it currently assessing the risks in the Taiwan Strait? Kisevit pointed out that Ukraine, the Persian Gulf and the Taiwan Strait should be viewed holistically as different battlefields. For these CRINK countries, these are actually battlefields for coordination. Therefore, "our defense and support must also be coordinated, and these three theaters must be treated as one."

Since the battlefields are interconnected, joint attacks or joint raids are possible. Assuming that Russia and Iran can contain the US aircraft carrier or the deployment of US military forces, creating a vacuum around Taiwan, or the public focus turns to Ukraine and gradually away from Taiwan, things may happen; assuming that Ukraine or Western Europe are under greater pressure than they are now, China may take advantage of the situation to achieve certain goals. Therefore, if the West's attention turns to other battlefields, Germany should observe the situation very carefully.

Kisevit said that the Russia-Ukraine war was foreseeable years before the outbreak, especially a few months ago. He was one of the few politicians who pointed out that the Russia-Ukraine war would break out on February 22, 2022. Based on his military background and observations on related issues, he also saw some signals that must be taken very seriously. The situation in the Taiwan Strait from 2027 to 2029 is extremely challenging, and Germany must assume that certain things may happen.

In response to China's invasion of Taiwan, will it be a full-scale military attack, blockade, or an escalation of gray zone tactics? Kiesewitt pointed out that China may combine the two, but the main focus will be on gray zone tactics. For example, it could ask a specific country to reduce shipments to Taiwan or even not ship to Taiwan, or launch legal battles and increase pressure on industries and trade unions in different countries to reduce exports or willingness to cooperate. There are many dirty tricks that China can use, and Germany must be alert to this.

He said that the characteristic of war is that it is difficult to predict, and the same is true for aggressors. Therefore, Germany must think in different scenarios and be prepared. It also needs to realize that modern war is not just a military war, but a battlefield shaped by cognitive warfare, hybrid warfare, and state terrorism.

When asked what would Germany do if a war really breaks out in the Taiwan Strait? Kisevit said that Taiwan knows very well that, just like Ukraine, "in extreme circumstances, you can only rely on yourself. Only by being self-reliant can you convince others to support you." Therefore, Taiwan must rely on itself first, and other countries will help. "Taiwan is a trustworthy country and is showing us that they are willing to defend themselves. Next, it depends on the decisions of individual countries."

In 2024, two German warships passed through the Taiwan Strait. In an interview in 2025, Kiesewitt suggested that such "naval exercises should be normalized." In this regard, Kiesewite once again said in an interview, what is wrong with this suggestion? There is nothing to talk about. Germany should do this directly. The German government regards the Taiwan Strait as international waters, so there is nothing to talk about. Including the Atlantic Ocean, Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean, they are all international waters, so why should we declare them? When necessary, just show up.

Regarding the brooch pinned on his suit, when asked whether he was worried that publicly displaying the flag of the Republic of China would bring him trouble, Kiesewitt said: "I like this brooch because it shows the friendship between Taiwan and Germany, and I bought it myself. I will also wear it when I visit Taiwanese institutions in Berlin or attend events with Taiwanese friends. Why not?"