
AI-generated summary
The International Day for Disaster Reduction is established on October 13 every year to enhance public awareness and response capabilities to natural disasters. The 2026 theme focuses on 'Building a Safe and Resilient Home', emphasizing improving disaster prevention preparedness and emergency response capabilities from the smallest units such as housing, families, and communities. The National Climate Center monitors the formation of the strongest El Niño event in history in September 2026, which is expected to affect global climate patterns and increase the risk of geological disasters such as extreme precipitation and flash floods in my country.
October 13, 2026
It is the 37th International Day for Disaster Reduction
This year's theme is
"Building a safe and resilient home"
Emphasis on safety around home
From housing, family, community, etc.
Starting from building the resilience capacity of the “smallest unit” in disaster response
Focus on improving disaster prevention preparedness
and emergency response capabilities
According to the National Climate Center
Already formed once in September 2026
Super strong El Niño event
It is expected that in the next three months
Sea surface temperatures in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific will continue to rise
Reaching peak value in late autumn and early winter
This El Niño event
will become a systematic monitoring
The strongest El Niño event
What does this mean? Let’s take a look together
Super strong El Niño "arrives", the risk of flash floods should not be underestimated
The National Climate Center predicts that this autumn (October-November), most of the central and eastern parts of my country will experience excessive precipitation, with most of Jiangnan and the eastern part of southwest China experiencing 50% to 80% excess precipitation. Risks of extreme precipitation, flash floods, landslides, and debris flows are high. At the same time, autumn rains in West China are generally more abundant, with a spatial distribution of "more in the south and less in the north".
Flash floods are characterized by strong suddenness, rapid confluence, high destructive power, and short escape time. They can often destroy roads and houses in just a few dozen minutes, threatening people's lives and safety.
From a review of typical flash flood disaster events in recent years, there are three key points that must be guarded against:
In terms of risk points, disasters mostly occur in risk areas such as ravine and river settlements, construction areas, valley scenic spots, and upstream and downstream of bridges;
During critical periods, disaster events causing casualties almost all occur in the early hours of the night;
In terms of key targets, the casualties caused by the disaster are mainly concentrated in mobile workers such as working, camping, and river tracing, as well as vulnerable groups such as the elderly and children left behind in mountainous areas.
What do you think of the early warning? Remember the four-color password "blue, yellow, orange and red"
At present, the water conservancy department closely monitors changes in rainfall, water regimes, and flood conditions, strengthens monitoring and early warning of weak links such as flash floods and small and medium-sized river floods, dynamically adjusts early warning thresholds, implements a "response" mechanism for disaster early warning, and pays close attention to the five key links of "who organizes, transfers whom, when to transfer, where to transfer, and not to return without permission" to ensure that people in dangerous areas can "transfer, settle safely, and return without permission."
Let’s take a look at what the “four-color signals” of flash flood disaster meteorological risk warnings represent!
Blue warning - it may happen, pay more attention to weather changes and warning information;
Yellow warning - it is more likely to cause harm to personal safety and infrastructure, so be prepared for transfer in advance;
Orange Alert - High possibility, great threat to personal safety and infrastructure, follow the arrangements and move in an orderly manner;
Red alert - the possibility is very high, you must evacuate immediately, and all personnel in the danger area must be relocated immediately.
After receiving the warning, do not hesitate and do not be greedy for property. A flash flood may only give you a few minutes.
How to escape from a flash flood?
When encountering flash floods in the wild
Go in the right direction and run fast
Make a decisive decision and move to the high ground on both sides of the ditch without hesitation
Never escape along the direction of the ditch
If you are surrounded by floods
Try to contact the fire department as soon as possible
Get in touch with the public security and other rescue departments
Report your position and danger
While waiting for outside rescue
We should also proactively send out distress signals
Such as fire, smoke, flags or loud shouts, etc.
If floods continue to rise
It is difficult to protect yourself in a temporary refuge
Make full use of existing equipment or door panels
Use wooden beds, large pieces of foam and other floating materials to escape
If you have been caught in a flood
Be sure to grab the fixed ones as much as possible
Or something that can float to seek an opportunity to escape
It was found that the high-voltage line tower was tilted
Or when the telephone pole is broken and hanging down
Be sure to get away quickly
Prevent electric shock
Must remember
See how they "outperform" flash floods
·Ba County, Hanzhong Town, Shaanxi Province
On May 24, Ba County, Hanzhong Town, Shaanxi Province encountered extreme rainstorms. The average area rainfall reached 45.3 mm within two hours, and the maximum hourly rainfall intensity was 74.2 mm. The rain measuring radar of the Shaanxi Provincial Department of Water Resources captured the strong echo clouds in advance and issued an alarm at about 17:00. At 18:30, the risk level was urgently upgraded to a yellow approaching warning, and the first wave of high-risk people began to move. At 20:10, the warning was upgraded to orange. The provincial, municipal and county levels responded simultaneously and escalated the response. After receiving the early warning information, Zhenba County responded quickly and urged those responsible for grassroots flood control to immediately relocate people from dangerous areas in Yudu Town, Guanyin Town, Sanyuan Town, Changling Town and other places. A total of 857 households and 1,876 people have been relocated. At 23:00, when the peak of the Yinjia River, Yushui River and other rivers in Zhenba County reached its peak, all people in the danger zone had been evacuated and there were no casualties.
·Mabian County, Leshan, Sichuan
At 16:00 on July 10, the water conservancy rain measuring radar captured heavy rainfall clouds continuing to move towards Mabian County. Mabian County immediately issued a risk warning to relevant towns and villages. At 19:00, the radar echo continued to increase in Rongding Town. Mabian County once again pushed relevant forecast information to the grassroots front lines, requiring preparations for risk avoidance and transfer. From 6:00 to 7:00 on the 11th, Mabian County issued a total of 120 early warning and transfer information to 13 flash flood hazard areas. At 7:10 on the 11th, the Ministry of Water Resources issued a yellow flash flood warning to Mabian County. The Provincial Department of Water Resources once again issued a wake-up call to Mabian County, and a total of 1,412 households and 4,814 people were relocated. At about 7:30, flash floods broke out in many towns and villages in Mabian County, without any casualties.
· Maguan County and Hekou County, Wenshan, Yunnan
From 20:00 on May 17 to 8:00 on May 18, Maguan County, Wenshan Prefecture, in the upper reaches of the Daliangzi River, encountered extremely heavy rainfall. The rainfall in 1 hour reached 130 mm, and the rainfall in 6 hours reached 316 mm, both exceeding the maximum values since the hydrological data were recorded in Maguan County. At 23:05 that night, the "four warnings" system took the lead in capturing the risk of extreme rain conditions and immediately issued heavy rain and flash flood warnings to Maguan and Hekou counties. At 23:20, the "four warnings" system automatically triggered an immediate transfer warning, simultaneously issued warnings to 147 responsible persons in Maguan and Hekou counties and completed automatic "calls and responses." Organized the relocation of 114 households with 289 people in Maguan County and the relocation of 56 households with 150 people in Hekou County.
Less than two days apart, from 22:00 on May 19 to 1:00 on May 20, Maguan County once again encountered heavy rainfall. At 22:55 on May 19, the "Four Precautions" system issued a heavy rain and flash flood warning to Maguan County; at 23:40, the "Four Precautions" system issued a preparatory transfer warning to Maguan and Hekou counties, and issued an immediate transfer warning 10 minutes later, automatically "responding" to 115 responsible persons; at 0:01 on the 20th, the Qiaotou Township Government of Hekou County immediately organized the evacuation of the masses to a safe area, and all the people were safely resettled.
"Building a safe and resilient home"
Not just a slogan
But real action
Facing the strongest El Niño in history
Water conservancy workers are ready
It is the duty to defend one’s territory
Keep the land and do your duty
On this International Day for Disaster Reduction
Let us pay attention to flash flood disaster prevention
Learn to read warnings
Master risk avoidance skills
Let’s build together a world that belongs to each of us
Safe and Resilient Home
(Source: China Water Conservancy WeChat official account)
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
In the next three months, more precipitation will continue to occur in the central and eastern parts of my country, Jiangnan and southwest regions, and risks such as extreme precipitation and flash floods, landslides, and debris flows will remain high.
Very likely · Within months
With the continuous optimization of the early warning response mechanism and the improvement of public awareness of disaster prevention, successful transfer cases like Zhenba County in Shaanxi, Mabian County in Sichuan, Maguan County and Hekou County in Yunnan will be replicated in more areas, and casualties caused by flash floods are expected to be further reduced.
Likely · Within months

The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has established an important habitat for Bryde's whales on Weizhou Island, Beihai, Guangxi, with a sea area of 335.43 square kilometers and a fishing ban period of 8.5 months. It aims to protect the national first-level protected wild animal Bryde's whales and their habitats, and fill the gap in the protection of the habitats of large coastal whales in my country.

The Central Meteorological Observatory issued a medium-term weather forecast on the 13th. In the next ten days, the cumulative precipitation in the eastern part of the northwest region and other places will be 20 to 50 mm, with more than 200 mm in some places; the temperature in Jiangnan, southern China and other places will be 3 to 5°C higher; the northeastern region and other places will have a 4 to 6°C cooling on the 13th; there will be widespread precipitation north of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River from the 16th to the 18th; there will be a typhoon in the northwest Pacific Ocean, which will have no impact on our country.

Jia Xingxing, director of Taiwan Integrated Disaster Prevention Engineering Technology Consulting Company, pointed out that there have been three major changes in the recent weather: flash northeast winds, autumn high temperatures soaring to 32-33 degrees, and stronger northeast monsoons starting on the 21st. Guam's low-pressure system may develop into Typhoon Qiangpi, the 25th typhoon this year, as soon as the 14th. The high temperature in the central and southern parts will remain at 30-31 degrees, and there will be less rainfall. Only sporadic short-term rain will occur in the mountainous areas and southern Gaoping in the afternoon. South Korea was affected by two waves of fronts, with heavy rainfall on the 13th and 18th. It rained heavily in Seoul, so it is recommended to prepare rain gear.

Tropical Disturbance 96W is located in the low-latitude waters southeast of Guam. It is expected to gradually integrate and develop in the next 2 to 3 days. It may intensify into a typhoon after Thursday at the earliest. However, various weather models have obvious differences in the time, location and extent of its northward turn. It remains to be seen whether it will approach Taiwan in the future.

Affected by the cold air, the temperature in the north has dropped significantly, and the lowest temperature in many places in the Northeast has dropped to near freezing point. The highest temperature in Harbin on the 14th was only 10°C, and the lowest temperature will fall below freezing point on the morning of the 15th. In the south, affected by the intersection of cold and warm air, rainfall will occur from the southwest to the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. There will be heavy rain or heavy rain in local areas, and we need to be alert to secondary disasters.

Yesterday, moderate to heavy rains occurred in Shanxi, Hebei, Liaoning and other places. Inner Mongolia and North China and other places experienced cooling. This morning, heavy fog appeared in central and southern North China and Jiangsu and other places. Cold air will continue to affect the northern region on the 13th, and attention should be paid to the impact of strong wind cooling on health and traffic; from the 13th to the 15th, there will be a heavy rainfall process from the eastern part of southwest China to the northern part of Jiangnan. The cumulative rainfall in some areas is relatively large, and secondary disaster prevention needs to be strengthened.