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Back超强厄尔尼诺来袭，山洪避险务必知晓
超强厄尔尼诺来袭，山洪避险务必知晓
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中国新闻网2 hours agoEnvironment3 min readChinaView translation

超强厄尔尼诺来袭，山洪避险务必知晓

国际减灾日厄尔尼诺山洪灾害

Quick Look

2026年国际减灾日主题为‘建设安全韧性家园’，国家气候中心宣布2026年9月形成有史以来最强厄尔尼诺事件，预计将导致我国中东部等地秋季降水偏多，山洪等地质灾害风险升高。文章详细解读了山洪灾害的特点、高风险时段和人群，解释了气象预警‘蓝黄橙红’四色信号的含义及应对措施，并通过陕西镇巴县、四川马边县、云南马关县和河口县三个典型案例，展示了预警叫应机制在实际中的有效执行，实现了人员安全转移、零伤亡的目标。

AI-generated summary

Why It Matters

国际减灾日每年10月13日设立，旨在提升公众对自然灾害的防范意识和应对能力。2026年主题聚焦‘建设安全韧性家园’，强调从住房、家庭、社区等最小单元提升灾害预防准备和应急响应能力。国家气候中心监测到2026年9月形成有史以来最强厄尔尼诺事件，预计将影响全球气候模式，增加我国极端降水和山洪等地质灾害风险。

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2026年10月13日

是第37个国际减灾日

今年的主题是

“建设安全韧性家园"

强调围绕家园安全

从住房、家庭、社区等

灾害应对“最小单元”韧性能力建设出发

着力提升灾害预防准备

和应急响应能力

据国家气候中心消息

2026年9月已形成一次

超强厄尔尼诺事件

预计未来三个月

赤道中东太平洋海表温度将继续升高

在秋末冬初达到峰值

此次厄尔尼诺事件

将成为有系统性监测以来

最强厄尔尼诺事件

这意味着什么？一起来看看吧

超强厄尔尼诺“驾到”，山洪风险不可小觑

国家气候中心预测，今年秋季(10—11月)，我国中东部大部降水偏多，江南大部和西南地区东部局部偏多5至8成，极端降水及山洪、滑坡、泥石流等风险高。与此同时，华西秋雨总体偏多，呈“南多北少”空间分布。

山洪具有突发性强、汇流速度快、破坏力大、避险时间短的特点，往往在短短几十分钟内就能冲毁道路、房屋，威胁群众生命安全。

从近年典型山洪灾害事件复盘检视看，有三个重点必须防范：

风险点位上，灾害多发生在山沟河道聚居地、施工工区、溪谷景点、桥梁上下游等风险区域；

关键时段上，造成人员伤亡的灾害事件几乎全部发生在夜间凌晨；

重点对象上，因灾伤亡人员主要集中在务工、宿营、溯溪等流动人员和山区留守老人、儿童等脆弱人群。

预警怎么看？记住“蓝黄橙红”四色密码

当前，水利部门密切监视雨情、水情、汛情变化，对山洪灾害和中小河流洪水等薄弱环节强化监测预警，动态调整预警阈值，落实临灾预警“叫应”机制，抓实抓细“谁组织、转移谁、何时转、转何处、不擅返”五个关键环节，确保危险区群众“转得出、安得下、不擅返”。

山洪灾害气象风险预警的“四色信号”代表什么，一起来看一看！

蓝色预警——可能发生，多留意天气变化和预警信息；

黄色预警——可能性较大，可能对人身安全和基础设施造成危害，提前做好转移准备；

橙色预警——可能性大，对人身安全和基础设施有较大威胁，听从安排有序转移；

红色预警——可能性很大，必须立即撤离，危险区内所有人员马上转移。

收到预警后，不要犹豫，不要贪恋财物。山洪留给你的时间可能只有几分钟。

遭遇山洪，该如何逃生？

野外遇到山洪时

要方向对、跑得快

当机立断、毫不迟疑向沟道两侧高地转移

切不可顺着沟道方向逃生

如果已被洪水包围

要设法尽快与消防

公安等救援部门取得联系

报告自己的方位和险情

在等待外界救援的过程中

也要主动积极地发出求救信号

如火光、浓烟、旗语或大声呼喊等

如果洪水继续上涨

暂避的地方难以自保

要充分利用现有的器材或门板

木床、大块泡沫等能漂浮的材料逃生

如果已被卷入洪水中

一定要尽可能抓住固定的

或能漂浮的东西寻求机会逃生

发现高压线铁塔倾斜

或者电线杆断头垂下时

一定要迅速远避

防止触电

一定要记住哦

看看他们如何“跑赢”山洪

·陕西汉中镇巴县

5月24日，陕西汉中镇巴县遭遇极端暴雨，两小时内平均面雨量达45.3毫米，最大小时雨强74.2毫米。陕西省水利厅的测雨雷达提前捕捉到强回波云团，17时许发出告警，18时30分，风险等级紧急升级为黄色临近预警，第一波高危群众开始转移。20时10分，预警升级为橙色。省、市、县三级同步叫应、提级响应。镇巴县接到预警信息后，迅速应对，督促基层防汛责任人立即转移渔渡镇、观音镇、三元镇、长岭镇等地危险区群众，先后累计转移857户1876人。23时，镇巴县境内尹家河、渔水河等河流洪峰到达时，危险区人员已全部撤离，无人员伤亡。

·四川乐山马边县

7月10日16时，水利测雨雷达捕捉到强降雨云团持续向马边县移动，马边县第一时间向相关乡镇发布风险提醒。19时，雷达回波在荣丁镇境内持续增强。马边县再次将相关预报信息推送基层一线，要求做好避险转移准备。11日6时至7时，马边县累计向13个山洪灾害危险区发布预警转移信息120条。11日7时10分，水利部向马边县发布黄色山洪灾害短临预报预警，省水利厅再次对马边县进行喊醒叫应，累计转移1412户4814人。7时30分许，马边县多个乡镇相继暴发山洪，无一伤亡。

·云南文山马关县、河口县

5月17日20时至18日8时，大梁子河上游文山州马关县遭遇极端强降雨，1小时降雨量达130毫米，6小时降雨量达316毫米，均突破马关县有水文资料记录以来最大值。当晚23时5分，“四预”系统率先捕捉到极端雨情风险，第一时间向马关县、河口县发出暴雨山洪预警提醒。23时20分，“四预”系统自动触发立即转移预警，同步向马关县、河口县147名责任人发出预警并完成自动“叫应”。组织马关县转移114户289人，河口县转移56户150人。

间隔不到两天时间，5月19日22时至20日1时，马关县再次遭遇强降雨。5月19日22时55分，“四预”系统向马关县发出暴雨山洪预警提醒；23时40分，“四预”系统向马关县、河口县发出准备转移预警，10分钟后递进发出立即转移预警，自动“叫应”115名责任人；20日0时1分，河口县桥头乡政府立即组织群众撤离至安全区域，所有群众均安全安置。

“建设安全韧性家园"

不仅是一句口号

而是实实在在的行动

面对史上最强厄尔尼诺

水利人已经严阵以待

守土有责

守土尽责

在这个国际减灾日

让我们一起关注山洪灾害防御

学会读懂预警

掌握避险技能

共同建设属于我们每一个人的

安全韧性家园

(来源：中国水利微信公众号)

What to Watch

AI outlook — possibilities, not facts

  • 未来三个月，我国中东部、江南和西南地区东部将继续出现偏多降水，极端降水及山洪、滑坡、泥石流等风险将保持在高位。

    Very likely · Within months

  • 随着预警叫应机制的持续优化和公众防灾意识提升，类似陕西镇巴县、四川马边县、云南马关县和河口县的成功转移案例将在更多地区复制，山洪灾害造成的人员伤亡有望进一步下降。

    Likely · Within months

Open Questions

  • 此次厄尔尼诺事件将持续多久，对明年乃至更长时期的气候有何影响？
  • 除了山洪，厄尔尼诺是否还会增加其他类型地质灾害（如滑坡、泥石流）的发生频率？
  • 当前的预警叫应机制在偏远山区或通信条件较差地区的覆盖率和有效性如何？
  • 长期来看，提升山区韧性需要哪些基础设施和制度性投入？

Related Topics

国际减灾日
Organizations国家气候中心水利部门陕西省水利厅水利部
Places中国中东部江南西南地区
Topics厄尔尼诺山洪灾害预警信号避险转移应急响应韧性家园
This article was originally published by 中国新闻网.

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