China News Service, Beijing, October 9 (Reporter Shao Meng) The reporter learned from the National Climate Center on the 9th that a super strong El Niño event has officially formed in September 2026. The type is the eastern type, that is, the sea warm center is located in the equatorial eastern Pacific.
What does a super El Niño mean? What impact does it have on our country’s climate?
The strongest El Niño event since systematic monitoring began
According to the National Climate Center, sea surface temperatures in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific Ocean will continue to rise in the next three months, reaching a peak in late autumn and early winter. This El Niño event will become the strongest El Niño event since systematic monitoring.
El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon, typically characterized by abnormally high sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. It usually occurs every 2 to 7 years and lasts for about 9 to 12 months. The National Climate Center monitors the sea temperature index in a specific area. When the absolute value of the three-month moving average of the index reaches or exceeds 0.5°C and lasts for at least 5 months, it is determined to be an El Niño event.
According to monitoring by the National Climate Center, since May 2026, the equatorial central and eastern Pacific Ocean has entered an El Niño state, and the sea temperature index in key areas from May to September has shown a continuous trend of rapid warming.
It is reported that since monitoring records began, there have been three super strong El Niño events, which occurred from 1982 to 1983, 1997 to 1998 and 2014 to 2016.
It is expected that the temperature in my country will fluctuate greatly this winter.
What impact does super El Niño have on my country’s climate?
Monitoring by the National Climate Center shows that this summer's climate anomalies are largely affected by the rapid development of El Niño: the east is divided into two rainy belts, north and south, with heavy rains covering a wide area and strong points, overlapping falling areas, and causing multiple disasters; typhoons are active and strong, and the impact of wind and rain is long-lasting.
Chao Qingchen, director of the National Climate Center, previously introduced at a press conference of the China Meteorological Administration that it is expected that this autumn (October to November), most of the central and eastern parts of my country will have excessive rainfall, with most of Jiangnan and the eastern part of southwest China experiencing 50 to 80% excess rainfall, with extreme rainfall Risks of water and flash floods, landslides, debris flows, etc. are high; autumn rains in West China are generally more abundant, with a spatial distribution of "more in the south and less in the north"; precipitation in southwestern Inner Mongolia and northeastern Northwest China is more than 20 to 50% less, and the risks of meteorological drought and forest and grassland fires are high.
It is expected that in the winter (December 2026 to February 2027), my country's temperatures will be generally higher, the frequency of cold waves will be slightly more frequent, and the temperature will fluctuate greatly. Precipitation will be generally high, and it is necessary to focus on preventing periodic strong cold waves and the impact of low-temperature rain and snow in the south.
Next summer’s high temperature and heat wave may be stronger
Chao Qingchen pointed out that a typical strong El Niño will cause continuous cross-season disturbances to my country's climate, and its impact has a significant lag, which is often most prominent in the following year.
It is expected that El Niño will rapidly decay and end in the spring and summer of 2027, but its impact on my country's climate will still be significant. Extreme weather and climate events will increase, temperatures will be significantly higher, and summer high-temperature heat waves will be stronger and wider in scope.
She also said that my country's climate is jointly affected by sea temperature, polar ice, land snow cover and internal variability of atmospheric circulation. Super El Niño events are not the single factor affecting climate.
Li Xiang, a senior engineer at the National Climate Center, pointed out that the rapid development of El Niño affects the global ocean and atmosphere system through air-sea interactions, teleconnections and other channels, and further affects the Asian monsoon system and my country's weather and climate. Key industries such as agriculture, electric power, infrastructure, and transportation are greatly affected.
For example, in terms of agriculture, in the spring and summer of 2027 when El Niño weakens and ends, major grain-producing areas such as Northeast my country and North China need to pay attention to the impact on grain production caused by excessive rainfall and prone to flooding. Most of the northwest region, Xinjiang and other places need to prepare for drought in response to the meteorological drought risks brought about by high temperatures and lack of rainfall.
