Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's remarks in November last year that "whatever happens to Taiwan means something will happen to Japan" caused a sharp deterioration in relations between Japan and China. China subsequently called on the public to avoid traveling to Japan. A recent report from Australia's Lowy Institute shows that China's economic bargaining chips may not be effective. Taiwan, Palau and South Korea, which have also suffered economic retaliation from China, can follow Japan's example and offset China's economic coercion.
The report pointed out that although China is still an important market source, Japan has changed its exposure to China and has the ability to absorb the decline of the Chinese market while still maintaining strong overall tourism consumption.
Data from the Japan National Tourism Administration shows that in the first half of this year, foreign tourists contributed 4.9 trillion yen (NT$987.98 billion) to Japan’s economy. In July this year, there were 3.4 million tourists to Japan, of which only 428,000 were Chinese tourists, a sharp drop of 56.1% from the same period last year. Despite this, "from the data point of view, the decline of Chinese tourists has not had much impact on Japan's broader tourism industry."
Voice of America reported that the author of the article, Mansfield Research Fellow and Navy Lieutenant Colonel Andrew Orchard, pointed out that China’s economic bargaining chip with Japan was due to the fact that Chinese tourists accounted for the majority of foreign tourists in Japan in the past. In 2019, there were 9.6 million Chinese tourists, accounting for nearly one-third of foreign tourists. In the first seven months of this year, this proportion dropped to 10.2%.
Orchard said, "However, Japan does not need to make up for every Chinese tourist gap. What it needs to do is to fill the consumption of about 2 trillion yen (NT$403.3 billion) contributed by Chinese tourists last year, and the answer lies in long-distance tourists who usually spend higher per capita per trip."
He pointed out that data showed that Chinese tourists spent per capita 246,000 yen (NT$49,600) in Japan last year, which was far lower than the 341,000 yen (NT$68,800) of American tourists and the 393,000 yen (NT$79,300) of German tourists.
He said that despite the massive decline in Chinese tourists, Japan's tourism economy has remained quite resilient, showing that Japan has become less dependent on revenue generated from China as its main source of tourists.
Japan's latest data supports the view that Japan's tourism industry is still resilient. According to data from the Japan National Tourism Administration, international tourists fell by 9.6% year-on-year in August. However, tourists from remote markets such as France, the United States, and Mexico increased, and their per capita consumption was higher than that of Chinese tourists. Among them, France increased by 8.4% year-on-year to more than 40,000 people, and per capita consumption in the second quarter was 423,000 yen (NT$85,300). In contrast, China decreased by 59% year-on-year, with per capita consumption of 266,000 yen (NT$53,600) during the same period.
