The 20th "Fifth Plenary Session" of the Communist Party of China came to an end recently. The Safe Taiwan Institute held a symposium today (31st) to analyze the internal situation of the Communist Party of China and its impact on Taiwan. Scholars who participated in the talks pointed out that the top leadership of the Communist Party of China and the military and aerospace system have been purged in a "one-stop" manner, which will inevitably delay the centenary goal of establishing the military in 2027. In the next one to four years, the focus will be on internal rectification, and the probability of short-term infringement of Taiwan will decrease. However, due to the internal "preferring to the left rather than the right" and speculation, and Zhang Shengmin, who takes over the daily business of the Central Military Commission, is a political worker with a background in discipline inspection and does not understand military command, once a sudden crisis occurs in the Taiwan Strait, it is very easy to misjudge the situation and misjudge the situation.
Jie Zhong, an appointed associate researcher at the Institute of Strategy and Resources of the National Defense Academy, pointed out that the current CCP Central Committee members and alternate Central Committee members were attrited due to discipline and other "unnatural factors" as high as 96 people, accounting for 26% of the total, which is 2.23 times the 43 attrition in the 18th CPC Central Committee during the anti-corruption campaign. Since those being purged have been charged with corruption and moral defects, the successors will not dare to accept all the existing plans. In addition, the military and aerospace system has become the hardest hit area. More than 28 senior officials including Ma Xingrui, Jin Zhuanglong, Zhao Xiaozhe, Lei Fanpei, etc. have been dismissed. Weapons research and development and military plans have been forced to re-examine, and the centenary goal of establishing the army in 2027 is bound to be significantly delayed.
Jie Zhong's research shows that after Xi Jinping's military reform, he deliberately did not allow theaters to have the ability to operate independently. Large-scale deployment of troops must rely on cross-departmental coordination such as joint logistics, aerospace and national defense mobilization. Under the purge of high-level personnel, the Communist Army's ability to deal with unanticipated major events and the use of external troops will decline in the next 3 to 4 years. However, the leadership of political movements and political studies in the military will make generals speculate and dare not tell the truth. When encountering a sudden crisis, they "would rather be tough than gentle", leading to misjudgment of the situation and difficulty in cooling down the situation.
Chen Shimin, associate professor of the Department of Political Science at National Taiwan University, also analyzed that among the 33 Central Committee members and alternate Central Committee members who were expelled from the party this time, 16 senior generals and 7 senior military and industrial officials accounted for 70%. Currently, there are only 6 generals left among the nearly 40 vacancies in the Communist Army. It has been nine months since the arrest of former Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission Zhang Youxia. Important military positions are still on the bench, "just like the deputy chief of staff who has been vacant for nine months." The high-level combat command system is in a vacuum, and military morale is bound to be disorganized. Xi Jinping will not dare to take major military actions against Taiwan in the short term.
Ma Zhenkun, a professor at the Institute of Chinese Military Affairs at the National Defense University, said that in the next one to two years, the focus of the People's Liberation Army will be on internal rectification rather than external rectification. He pointed out that the Fifth Plenary Session of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China did not add members to the Military Commission. Only Zhang Shengmin, Vice Chairman of the General Committee, was elected as a member of the Politburo. Zhang is expected to remain in office at the 21st Party Congress next year and will be in charge of military combat training as a senior Vice Chairman.
However, both Chen Shimin and Ma Zhenkun also warned that Zhang Shengmin had a background in political work and military discipline during his military career and had no expertise in combat command. The political worker directly commanded the military, breaking the long-term balance of military and political dual leadership of the Communist Army. "Red over expert" will make military operations more politically charged and increase the risk of crisis management.
