President Trump has threatened "tremendous economic consequences" for any country doing business with Iran, but did not specify specific measures. The threat appears to be his latest move to further isolate Iran from the global economy and pressure Iran's leadership to negotiate an end to the war.
The United States has imposed tough sanctions on Iran's economy and its leadership, and the Trump administration has previously sanctioned certain foreign companies and organizations that trade with Tehran. Trump's vaguely worded social media posts on Wednesday seemed to suggest he might target countries that buy Iranian oil, without naming specific countries.
President Trump has walked back such threats before. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi dismissed his latest warning as a "red herring" to cover up the crisis facing the United States itself.
If Trump does take action, here are some of the countries that could be most affected:
China
China is Iran’s largest trading partner and its main buyer of oil, according to the latest analysis from the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, a body established by Congress to study U.S. bilateral relations with China.
For many years, China has been almost the only country willing to ignore Western sanctions on Iranian oil, and its purchases of Iranian oil once accounted for 90% of Tehran's oil exports. However, in recent months, Iran’s ability to export oil by sea has been almost completely cut off due to the U.S. naval blockade.
Last year, China estimated bilateral trade with Iran at nearly $10 billion, a figure that did not include oil.
But William Figueroa, an expert on China-Iran relations at the University of Groningen in the Netherlands, said that from China's perspective, this is just a drop in the bucket compared to the size of its overall economy. "If China's trade with Iran, or its ability to import Iranian oil, is affected, it won't be catastrophic for China," he said.
Andrea Ghiselli, a political scientist specializing in China studies at the University of Exeter in the United Kingdom, said that the biggest benefit Beijing derives from this trade relationship is geopolitical. He said that Beijing has the motivation to retain the Iranian regime as a "thorn in the side" of the United States.
Li Anfeng believes that China’s oil imports from Iran account for a negligible amount and “can easily be replaced by other sources in the global market.”
Asked on Thursday about the possible impact of U.S. coercive economic measures, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian called on all parties to resolve differences through diplomatic channels.
"Sanctions and pressure will not help solve the problem," he said.
India
Iran was once India's most important energy supplier. But U.S. sanctions have prompted New Delhi to reduce bilateral ties, with trade between the two countries shrinking sharply in recent years, according to official data from the Indian Embassy in Iran.
Data show that in the 2025-2026 fiscal year, the total bilateral trade volume was US$1.63 billion, far lower than the more than US$17 billion in the 2018-2019 fiscal year.
In 2019, under pressure from the Trump administration, India stopped buying Iranian oil entirely. Indian officials said that in the last fiscal year, India's main imports from Iran were apples, pistachios, dates and kiwis.
UAE, Iraq, Türkiye and Pakistan
Esfandiyar Batmanglij, chief executive of the London-based Bourse & Bazaar Foundation, a think tank specializing in the Iranian economy, said the four Iranian trading partners also appeared vulnerable to Trump's threats.
On Wednesday, the United Arab Emirates seemed to respond in advance to Trump's remarks, announcing that it would cease all trade and financial transactions with Iran. According to data from the World Trade Organization, the trade volume between Iran and the UAE in 2024 is approximately US$28 billion. Batmanglij said the UAE's decision may affect the ability of Iranian importers to pay because a large number of related financial services are provided through the UAE.
Batmanglij said that although Pakistan and Turkey have maintained sizable overland trade with Iran, the two countries have so far been relatively limited by the impact of U.S. economic measures against Tehran.
According to the latest data available from the World Trade Organization, Iran imported more than $11 billion worth of goods from Türkiye in 2022, making the latter its third largest source of imports.
