Taiwan New Century Cultural and Educational Foundation discussion focuses on the impact of the Sichuan-Xi meeting and US-China relations on Taiwan

The Taiwan New Century Cultural and Educational Foundation held a symposium this morning, focusing on the just-concluded Sichuan-Xi session and the impact of future US-China relations on Taiwan. Guo Yuren, director of the Institute of China and Asia-Pacific Studies at Sun Yat-Sen University, pointed out that Chinese President Xi Jinping had already made three major concessions to the United States before the second session of the Trump-Xi meeting in exchange for the high-level reception from the U.S. president. However, this was a short-lived period for both sides to get what they needed. He also pointed out that in terms of the amount of arms purchases, Trump has sold Taiwan US$18.6 billion in arms during his first term, and his second term target is to sell Taiwan US$31.1 billion. In fact, Trump is very supportive of Taiwan.

The Taiwan New Century Cultural and Educational Foundation held a series of talks this morning on "The 250 Years of the Founding of the United States: International Order, Constitutional Democracy, and Taiwan's Future." The first session was themed "U.S. Global Strategy, U.S.-China Competition, and Taiwan's Future Choices." Qiu Zhaolin, adjunct researcher at the Institute of European and American Studies at Academia Sinica, served as the speaker. Lai Yi-chung, advisory committee member of Taiwan think tank, Guo Yuren, director of the Institute of China and Asia-Pacific Studies at Sun Yat-sen University, Su Yantu, researcher at the Institute of Law, Academia Sinica, and others.

Guo Yuren said that this time Trump received Xi Jinping with a high standard and picked him up at Joint Base Andrews. However, many people did not realize that in fact, before the second meeting between Trump and Xi, China had already made substantial concessions to the United States, including exporting 27 tons of heavy rare earths to the United States, conducting a joint investigation with the FBI on fentanyl, and purchasing large quantities of American agricultural products.

Guo Yuren explained that for Xi Jinping, this year’s Fifth Plenary Session of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China is very important. Until the 21st Congress of the Communist Party of China in October next year, it is like entering a one-year period of martial law. Xi Jinping will never allow any accidents to happen to his regime during this year, so he will stabilize relations with the United States as soon as possible; for As far as Trump is concerned, November 3 is the midterm election in the United States. The gubernatorial elections in Alaska and Georgia are still swinging, as are the House and Senate. All parties predict that the Republican election will be relatively unfavorable. Therefore, Xi Jinping's three concessions are necessary for Trump's midterm election.

In addition, Guo Yuren also pointed out that in fact, Trump was very disciplined in the two Trump-Xi meetings on May 14 and September 24 this year and did not mention Taiwan at all. Trump also confirmed that Xi Jinping mentioned Taiwan several times during the meeting, but he did not make any response. He believes that Taiwan-U.S. relations have entered a delicate period. Trump does not want Taiwan to affect the game between the United States and China. The U.S. government has also reduced public mentions of Taiwan to prevent issues caused by Taiwan, such as President Lai Ching-te's transit. However, Taiwan-U.S. security cooperation is still increasing substantive actions, including gradually opening up maritime patrol cooperation, regular drills, and joint patrols.

Guo Yuren analyzed that from a strategic perspective, in the face of the rapid modernization of China's military, the United States has returned to the "First Island Chain" as its strategic focus, and has abandoned the "Indo-Pacific Strategy" that was too large and too time-consuming. For example, in the latest "National Security Strategy" and "National Defense Strategy," the United States has repeatedly emphasized the importance of the First Island Chain and Taiwan's defense, and restored the "Indo-Pacific Command" to its old name of "Pacific Command."

In terms of division of labor, in the past, the Korean Peninsula, East China Sea, Taiwan Strait, and South China Sea were independent theaters, but now they are "horizontally integrated" into a single theater. As for "vertical integration," Xavier T. Brunson, commander of the U.S. Forces in Korea, also proposed the concept of "Kill Web" to integrate the combat capabilities of the countries in the first island chain, including land, sea, air, space, network, electronic warfare, etc.

Guo Yuren continued to point out that former US President Biden publicly stated four times during his term that if China invaded Taiwan, the United States would come to help defend Taiwan. However, during his term, he sold arms to Taiwan 19 times, with a total amount of only more than 5 billion US dollars. On the other hand, Trump has sold US$18.6 billion in arms to Taiwan during his first term, and his second term goal is to sell US$31.1 billion, for a total of about US$50 billion in arms sales to Taiwan. Taiwan was not even mentioned in the Trump-Xi meeting. "You said this is not enough to support Taiwan? Otherwise, how can it be enough?"