First ministers (i.e. heads of local governments) of Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland met on Monday in the Welsh capital Cardiff to discuss "closer cooperation", including on constitutional issues. They all want their countries to leave the United Kingdom.
Scotland was represented at the meeting by the leader of the Scottish National Party (SNP) John Swinney, Wales by Rhun ap Iorwerth (leader of Plaid Cymru, the Party of Wales), Northern Ireland by Michelle O'Neill from the Republican Sinn Fein party and the chairman of this party, Mary Lou McDonald.
At the end of the meeting, the leaders signed an agreement stating that no government in Westminster (that is, the British government) has the right to “block democracy.” They also said that "Westminster's time is coming to an end" and that the UK government must "prepare" for constitutional change.
This is the first face-to-face meeting of nationalist party leaders since the election of Rhun ap Iorwerth of the Welsh Nationalist Party to lead the Welsh government in May.
Ahead of the meeting, a Welsh Party spokesman said the "changing political landscape on the islands" showed there was a strong case for "practical political cooperation" in areas such as energy, the economy and engagement with Europe. There are also "broader political and constitutional issues facing our nations, as well as the question of the right to self-determination."
Ap Iorwerth said the May election was a “turning point for Wales” and that “more and more people are recognizing that the Westminster model is no longer working.”
Scottish National Party leader Swinney said: “There is a growing consensus that the Westminster system is simply not fit for purpose and is not working for the benefit of ordinary people. "Prime Minister Andy Burnham himself admitted this - and the people of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland made it clear at the polls."
O'Neill said the interests of the people of the entire island of Ireland "have never been served by those in Westminster".
Mary Lou MacDonald, chairwoman of Sinn Fein, told the BBC: “Of course we have different national histories, but one very important thing unites us - our absolute conviction that it is the people of Ireland who should decide the future of Ireland, the people of Scotland who should decide the future of Scotland, and the people of Wales who should decide the future of Wales.”
However, how exactly the scenarios for countries leaving the United Kingdom will be implemented and whether this will happen at all is difficult to judge now.
None of the leaders can now just arrange a referendum on leaving the United Kingdom, and the conditions in these countries are noticeably different.
Following the signing of the Good Friday Agreement in 1998, which ended thirty years of conflict in Northern Ireland, the country gained its own legislature and government with broad powers, including control over the police and courts.
The situation developed in a similar way in the other two countries of the kingdom: Scotland and Wales received their own parliaments and cabinets relatively independent from Westminster. At first, nationalist parties were in the minority, but pretty soon the SNP managed to wrest power from representatives of traditional British parties and has been leading Scotland for the second decade.
In Wales, the nationalists from Plaid Cymrie first came to power only after the elections in May of this year.
And in Northern Ireland, the terms of the Good Friday Agreement dictate that the First Minister and Deputy First Minister have the same powers and responsibilities, and the post of Deputy First Minister is occupied by Emma Little-Pengelly of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), which advocates keeping the country within the Kingdom.
Although Sinn Fein has the largest faction in the Northern Ireland Assembly, the Unionists have slightly more seats overall than the Nationalists. Therefore, even before bringing up the idea of a referendum on secession from the United Kingdom (and joining Ireland), politicians, and indeed citizens, still have to agree among themselves.
Little-Pengelly, by the way, hastened to note that Michelle O'Neill is taking part in Monday's meeting precisely as a representative of the Sinn Fein party, and not the Northern Ireland Assembly.
In Northern Ireland, there is already an agreed path to reunification, set out in the Good Friday Agreement, British Prime Minister Andy Burnham reminded the other day: the referendum will “be considered by the Northern Ireland Secretary when there is a clear consensus in the country, when public opinion has changed enough that this call needs to be taken into account.”
“I would say it's exactly the same situation in Scotland,” he added. But before the Scottish nationalists could draw their conclusions from this, he explained: the issue of holding another referendum in Scotland is still “not under discussion.”
Scottish nationalists already held a referendum on secession from the United Kingdom in 2014. Then 55% opposed divorce from Britain, and 45% supported independence. However, two years later, the UK voted to leave the EU, and the Scots demanded a new referendum - they wanted to remain in the European Union, as shown by the results of the Brexit vote in the country: 62% versus 38%.
However, Westminster did not agree to a second referendum. And in 2022, the British Supreme Court confirmed that a new referendum is impossible without the consent of London. Nevertheless, Swinney, after his victory in the May election, is insisting on holding a second referendum on independence.
Ap Iorwerth, for his part, is in no hurry to hold a referendum: he previously ruled out holding it during the term of the current parliament, saying that he wants to initiate a “national discussion” of this issue.
His government intends to set up a national commission to "lay the groundwork" for future plans for Welsh independence.
"We are different nations with our own development trajectories and priorities," he told the BBC. “But there is also something that unites us ... this is the desire for a different approach, different from the approach of the UK government. This may be a constitutional issue, or perhaps, more urgently, fair funding.”
It was no coincidence that the Welsh Prime Minister raised the issue of financing. Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland receive funding from the UK Treasury, calculated using the Barnett formula, adopted back in 1978. It does not calculate the entire regional budget, but rather the annual change in funding based on spending in England. Because the formula is tied to regional populations, the more populous Scotland gets more than the less populous Wales and Northern Ireland.
Although the formula for Wales has been adjusted in recent years, Welsh officials are still pushing for changes to the country's funding guidelines, arguing that the current formula puts Wales at a disadvantage. Before becoming prime minister of Great Britain, Burnham supported this idea, but during a recent visit to Wales he spoke vaguely about its prospects.
None of the three leaders today can probably guarantee a positive outcome of a referendum on secession in their country, even if we assume that London will not object to its holding.
