Analysis by colleagues Mustafa Salem and Aida Karimi from CNN
(CNN) - With Washington abandoning negotiations with Iran in favor of an aggressive economic pressure campaign, a currently beleaguered Tehran is threatening military escalation and a broader war to force negotiators back to the negotiating table.
US President Donald Trump rejected diplomacy with the Islamic Republic, describing the ceasefire agreement reached in June as “worthless.” Before his administration intensified pressure on Iran through a campaign of global sanctions, military strikes, and a naval blockade that prevented goods from entering or leaving the country.
This multi-front campaign has put Iran under unprecedented pressure, forcing its exhausted people to endure further suffering. Meanwhile, Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei remains noticeably absent.
Tuesday marks six months since he disappeared in an attempt to avoid the fate of his father and predecessor, Ali Khamenei, who was killed in an air strike at the beginning of the US-Israeli war against Iran in late February.
Iranian military officials are increasingly promoting new tactics in response to the pressure, threatening to target countries participating in the blockade and warning of the possibility of expanding the scope of the conflict.
The head of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, Mohsen Rezaei, said in an interview with Iranian media on Sunday: "We concluded the necessity of adopting new strategies in war, in negotiations, and in confronting the siege."
He also indicated the possibility of Iran expanding its blockade to include areas outside the Strait of Hormuz, by imposing a new “exclusion zone” in the Gulf and the Gulf of Oman.
Over the past few weeks, Iran and Oman have been conducting slow negotiations over the management of the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Ismail Baghaei said on Monday that a “temporary safe passage” through the strait is likely to be registered with the International Maritime Organization in the “coming days.” It remains unclear whether the United States will recognize the agreement being negotiated by Tehran and Muscat.
While the spokesman for the Qatari Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Majed Al-Ansari, explained to CNN correspondent Becky Anderson that the mediators have so far identified two main obstacles to resolving the conflict: political will and technical solutions.
He added: "Political will depends on the narrative, meaning we are seeking to find the appropriate narrative for the parties to the conflict to get out of this crisis. This requires a double effort in an attempt to find all the necessary solutions."
Despite the diplomatic stalemate, senior Iranian officials, including President Masoud Pezeshkian, have repeatedly indicated their desire to return to the June agreement, which observers widely consider an agreement in Tehran's interests.
On the internal level, hard-line conservatives still criticize any agreement with the United States, accusing the Iranian president and his negotiators of undermining Iran’s gains during the war.
“Tehran is trying to reconcile two pressures: a war-weary people who need economic support, and an ideological base that does not want to give up,” Hamid Reza Azizi, senior Iran analyst at the International Crisis Group, told CNN.
He added: "For this reason, the desired outcome is diplomacy, but diplomacy that can be presented locally as a product of Iranian power and not a retreat."
Backed into a corner, Iran currently faces a real dilemma. Without concessions on its demands for control of the Strait of Hormuz and its nuclear program or relief from sanctions, Washington is unlikely to ease the pressure, while any concession with Washington would make senior Iranian officials subject to pressure from hard-line factions within the regime led by ideological orientations.
The head of the hardline Basij militia, Hussein Taeb, said on Monday: “The Iranian people do not accept threats, coercion, or negotiations that will lead to weakening the country’s rights.” He added: "The negotiations aim to guarantee the nation's rights, not give them up."
"Facing the inevitable"
Despite statements by Iranian and Qatari officials about their efforts to restore diplomacy, Trump stresses that his tactics do not seek to "force" Iran to return to the negotiating table, but rather indicate Washington's comfort with the status quo.
“I much prefer our current situation, where we have almost complete control of the Strait of Hormuz, while their economy is completely collapsing,” Trump wrote on Truth Social last week.
He added: "They are facing the inevitable," before calling on the Iranian people to "rise up and fight" the regime.
The memorandum of understanding established a roadmap for further negotiations on Iran's nuclear program and relief from sanctions, while paving the way for a future in which Tehran plays a role in managing the Strait of Hormuz, which is a vital artery for transporting a fifth of the world's oil supplies.
In the weeks following the signing of the agreement, Iran sought to control shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, while the United States launched an intense series of strikes on Iranian targets along the coast.
The US Navy also began escorting ships carrying crude oil exiting the Strait of Hormuz, gradually ramping up oil transit to ease pressure on markets, while regional countries such as the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia shifted their sources from the Strait of Hormuz to exporting oil to their customers.
Advisor to the Emirati President, Anwar Gargash, said at the Haley Forum in Abu Dhabi on Monday: “Our energy exports will not be a hostage, and neither will our commercial and economic activity.”
He added: “We are actively expanding port capabilities along our eastern coast, along with developing pipelines, railway networks and the commercial infrastructure needed to connect them, and alternative corridors for freight traffic are being developed and strengthened.”
Red lines
Washington has not eased military pressure, ordering strikes on Iranian targets, including an attack last week that killed 18 people.
The victims included four people at a wedding, including a child, after shrapnel from a US raid hit a house in a village along the Strait of Hormuz, according to Iranian officials.
In response, Iran targeted regional countries and ships crossing the Strait, while its proxies in Yemen attacked Saudi oil facilities.
But the ferocity of these raids is nothing compared to the first days of the war, when Iran launched hundreds of missiles and drones at regional targets, including Israel, severely disrupting livelihoods and causing severe damage to stable countries.
“The logic is that Tehran will simply not stand by as the United States gradually weakens its military and economic influence,” said Azizi, of the International Crisis Group.
He continued: "This does not necessarily mean that Iran wants another large-scale war. It is likely to be a deliberate escalation in the sense of increasing pressure on maritime navigation, expanding the scope of attacks on US bases or targeting its naval assets, or perhaps some goals related to regional energy infrastructure."
Amid mounting pressure, Iranian lawmakers are sending messages of deterrence, warning the region of new weapons and tactics, including attacks on warships and bases, while Iranian military commanders claim that the armed forces have updated their equipment and systems “in line with new threats.”
The goal, Azizi said, is to make “the status quo costly enough” for the United States so that diplomacy becomes a “preferred option” again.
However, this strategy carries risks.
Azizi added: "Once both sides begin to test the other's red lines, the risk of miscalculation increases dramatically. An Iranian attack that causes heavy American casualties, or an American response that crosses one of Tehran's red lines, could quickly push the confrontation beyond calculated escalation, and return it to all-out war."
