Armed confrontations are returning to northern Ethiopia in an intense manner, less than four years after an agreement that ended one of the country's bloodiest wars in its modern history, while new confrontations are expanding and interfering with the calculations of neighboring countries and regional powers.
In media statements published this week, the Chief of Staff of the Ethiopian Army, Field Marshal Berhanu Jula, accused Egypt and Sudan of supporting a new coalition of armed and political groups seeking to overthrow the government of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, saying that these groups cannot confront the government without external support. He also accused Eritrea of acting as a link between external powers and these groups.
Jula did not provide public evidence for these accusations, and this is not the first time that Ethiopian officials have accused Egypt and Sudan of supporting the opposition during armed conflicts. The Sudanese army, in turn, denied supporting the coalition, described the accusations as "baseless", and accused Ethiopia of allowing the Rapid Support Forces to use its territory and provide training and supplies to them, accusations that Addis Ababa denies.
The Sudanese army spokesman said in a statement that the army is committed to the principles of international law and good neighborliness and does not interfere in the affairs of states, but will not allow its sovereignty or national security to be compromised.
An Egyptian diplomatic source also denied to the BBC the Ethiopian accusations, and said that Cairo does not interfere in the Ethiopian internal crisis, and that Addis Ababa must address its internal crises instead of shifting its responsibility to external parties.
From the Tigray war to the new alliance
Tigray is a region located in the far north of Ethiopia, on the border with Eritrea and Sudan, and is inhabited by a majority of the Tigray nationality.
The region has been a center of political influence in Ethiopia for years, as the Tigray People's Liberation Front dominated the ruling coalition in Addis Ababa for decades, before Abiy Ahmed came to power in 2018.
After assuming the prime ministership, Abiy Ahmed reshaped the ruling coalition, dissolved the front that included the main ethnic parties, and founded the Prosperity Party. Tigray leaders rejected this step, escalating disputes between the federal government and the regional leadership.
The war broke out in November 2020, after the Ethiopian government accused Tigray forces of attacking a federal army base in the region, while the Tigray leadership said that its move came in response to what it considered a threat from the central government.
Eritrea joined the Ethiopian army, forces from the Amhara region also participated in the fighting, while Tigray forces fought the war alongside local allies.
After nearly two years of fighting and violations that various parties were accused of committing, the Ethiopian government and the Tigray People's Liberation Front reached the Pretoria Agreement in November 2022.
The agreement stopped the war, but it did not resolve all the differences between the federal government and the Tigray leadership, and political, security, and regional issues remained outstanding.
In September 2026, seven armed groups announced the formation of the "Ethiopian People's Forces for Survival Alliance", including the Tigray People's Liberation Front, the Oromo Liberation Army, and the Fano Amharic Forces. The groups said they seek to remove Abiy Ahmed's government and form a transitional administration. The coalition includes groups from different regions and ethnicities, including parties that were previously on both sides of the conflict.
Horn of Africa affairs expert Jamal Ibrahim says that recent developments herald further escalation in Tigray, noting that the new alliance includes various ethnic and military groups, including forces from the Amhara region.
Ibrahim points out that some members of the coalition have experience in combat, as well as training, organization, and weapons, but he says that it is difficult to verify Ethiopian accusations about their obtaining Egyptian or Sudanese support, in the absence of public evidence of this.
Why do Egypt and Sudan appear in the accusations?
The Ethiopian accusations against Egypt and Sudan come in the context of a long history of tensions and mutual suspicions, although their motives are different for each country.
For Egypt, the matter is firstly related to the ongoing dispute over the Nile waters and the Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, the operation of which has not been reached with a sustainable solution. Tensions have escalated between the two countries since Ethiopia began building the dam on the Blue Nile, one of the main tributaries of the Nile River.
Egypt and Sudan are demanding a binding legal agreement that regulates the operation of the dam, especially during periods of drought, in addition to a clear mechanism for exchanging data. On the other hand, Ethiopia considers the dam an essential national project for producing electricity and supporting development, and says that its operation does not aim to harm the two downstream countries.
Political developments indicate that the dispute over the Renaissance Dam and regional issues remains a major element in the ongoing tensions between the three countries in the Horn of Africa.
