One Month Before the US Congressional Midterm Elections, Democrats Have an Advantage in the House of Representatives

About a month before the Congressional midterm elections to be held in the USA on November 3, it seems that the Democrats have an advantage in the election race, especially in the House of Representatives.

In the USA, elections will be held on November 3 in the entire 435-seat House of Representatives and 33 seats in the 100-seat Senate.

According to the current map of Real Clear Politics (RCP), which compiles nationwide and state-level surveys regarding the elections, Democrats are in a position to make gains in both the Senate and the House of Representatives compared to their current number of seats.

In RCP's October 5 map, 46 Senate seats for Democrats and 45 for Republicans are shown in a safe or advantageous position, while 9 seats are classified as "toss-up", that is, neck and neck.

In the House of Representatives, Democrats are shown to be in a safe or advantageous position in 226 seats and Republicans in 185 seats. 24 seats are in the head-to-head race category between the two parties.

9 SEATS TOP IN THE SENATE

51 seats must be reached for a majority in the Senate.

The 9 seats RCP has in the neck-and-neck category are in Alaska (C), Iowa (C), Kansas (C), Maine (C), Michigan (D), Minnesota (D), Ohio (C), Texas (C), and Nebraska (C).

7 of these states are held by Republicans and 2 are seats held by Democrats. On RCP's map, Republican-held races in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio and Texas are in the neck-and-neck category, while Michigan, Minnesota and Nebraska are also shown in the same category.

DEMOCRATS ARE AHEAD IN THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES

218 seats are required for a majority in the House of Representatives.

In the RCP's current map, Democrats are shown in a safe or advantageous position in 226 seats, Republicans in 185 seats, while 24 seats are in the "head to head" category. 18 of these regions are in the hands of Republicans, 5 are in the hands of Democrats, and the current seat distribution in one region varies.

RCP puts forward a picture in which Democrats can gain a net 23 seats in the House of Representatives compared to the current number of seats. For the Senate, Democrats are expected to gain a net gain of 4 seats.

House districts that RCP classifies as neck-and-neck include Minnesota, Iowa, Nebraska, Kansas, Texas, Alaska, Michigan, Ohio and Maine.

The fact that 18 of these 24 districts are in the hands of Republicans shows that a significant part of the race in the House of Representatives is shaped by the struggle of Republicans to maintain their current seats.

WHAT IS THE CURRENT TABLE?

In the US, Republicans currently have 53 seats in the Senate and Democrats have 45 seats. The two independent senators generally act together with the Democrats.

In the House of Representatives, Republicans have 218 seats, Democrats have 214 seats, independents have 1 seat, and 2 seats are vacant. Thus, Republicans hold the majority in the House with a difference of only 4 seats.

The table published by RCP as of October 5 reveals that, one month before the midterm elections, the race is quite competitive, especially in the House of Representatives, and many Republican seats are in the neck-and-neck race category.