According to the ZDF political barometer, the AfD remains the strongest force in Saxony-Anhalt
Quick Look
- Three days before the state elections in Saxony-Anhalt, according to the ZDF political barometer, the AfD is leading with 41 percent, followed by the CDU with 23 percent.
- The Left is at 11.5 percent, the SPD at 8.5 percent and the Greens at 6 percent.
- The BSW and the FDP would miss the five percent hurdle.
AI-generated summary
Why It Matters
The state election in Saxony-Anhalt will take place on Sunday. An alliance of CDU, SPD and FDP currently governs Magdeburg. The State Office for the Protection of the Constitution classifies the AfD as definitely right-wing extremist.
Three days before the state elections in Saxony-Anhalt, the ZDF “Political Barometer” still sees the AfD as the strongest force by a wide margin. According to the survey by the elections research group on behalf of the broadcaster, the AfD with its top candidate Ulrich Siegmund achieved 41 percent - one point more than a week ago. Prime Minister Sven Schulze's ruling CDU remains unchanged at 23 percent.
According to the survey, the Left got 11.5 percent - a minus of one and a half points compared to the previous week. The SPD loses half a point and comes to 8.5 percent, the Greens remain unchanged at 6 percent. With the current survey result of 4 percent (plus 1 point), the BSW would not get over the five percent hurdle; the FDP would also fail with 3 percent. The other parties together achieved 3 percent.
According to the polling institute, with an election result like the one in this survey, the AfD would miss its goal of governing alone. The more parties make it into parliament in Magdeburg, the less likely it is that an absolute majority will be for the AfD, which is classified by the state Office for the Protection of the Constitution in Saxony-Anhalt as definitely right-wing extremist. An alliance of CDU, SPD and FDP currently governs Magdeburg.
Other surveys come to similar results
The Elections Research Group surveyed a total of 1,044 eligible voters from September 1st to 3rd. According to ZDF, the survey is representative. The error range is a good three points in both directions for a share value of 40 percent and a good two points in both directions for a share value of 10 percent, the researchers write.
The AfD's clear lead over the CDU in the survey corresponds to the surveys of other election researchers. Infratest dimap, for example, saw the AfD at 42 percent and the CDU at 22 percent in a survey for ARD at the end of August.
In principle, surveys only reflect the opinion at the time of the survey and are not predictions of the election outcome. The state parliament of Saxony-Anhalt will be re-elected this Sunday.
What to Watch
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
The AfD will be the strongest force, but will not achieve an absolute majority.
Likely · Within days
The BSW and the FDP will miss the five percent hurdle.
Very likely · Within days
Open Questions
- Which coalitions are possible after the election?
- What will the voter turnout be?
- What impact does the classification of the AfD as right-wing extremist have on possible coalitions?
