AfD could become the strongest force in Saxony-Anhalt – government formation uncertain

The initial situation

The surveys have been pointing in one direction for months: the AfD could become the strongest force in Saxony-Anhalt. In the pre-election survey, the party is at 42 percent, which would double its 2021 result and achieve its best result in state elections nationwide.

Prime Minister Sven Schulze's CDU is at 22 percent - after 37.1 percent in the election five years ago, that would be a significant loss. Unlike his long-standing and popular predecessor Reiner Haseloff (CDU), Schulze does not bring any official bonus with him. The 47-year-old former Economics Minister only took over the State Chancellery at the end of January - and has been in election campaign mode ever since. But not only dissatisfaction with the economic situation, but also deep dissatisfaction with the federal government and the established parties seems to be falling on the state CDU's feet.

The AfD with its top candidate Ulrich Siegmund is confident of victory and wants to “make history”. Whether it can actually grab power and govern alone also depends on the performance of the other parties.

The Greens are currently at six percent in the pre-election survey and, like the BSW, have to worry about entering parliament at four percent; the FDP has even lower poll numbers. The SPD, which currently forms a fairly harmonious coalition with the CDU and FDP, was recently at eight percent and is in danger of undercutting its historically poor result of 8.4 percent in 2021. The Left Party is at eleven percent.

Why could forming a government be difficult?

The AfD is aiming for an election result of “45 plus X” and wants to make Siegmund the first AfD Prime Minister. The survey results so far do not indicate an absolute majority of votes for the AfD. However, the more of the other parties fail to meet the five percent hurdle, the higher the AfD's chances of a majority of seats in parliament. A second vote share of 50 percent would not necessarily be necessary for this.

In the event of a sole government, the AfD announced, among other things, a "deportation and remigration offensive", the termination of the State Broadcasting Treaty, a baby welcome allowance for children with at least one parent with a German passport, a ban on rainbow flags in public schools and the cancellation of funding, for example for clubs involved in democracy work.

If the election results were anything like the polls, the AfD would miss its goal. If both the SPD and the Greens manage to re-enter the Magdeburg state parliament, it is unlikely that the AfD will get a majority of the seats. A coalition is also highly unlikely, as all other parties have ruled out working with the AfD.

How would a government be possible without the AfD?

A coalition of CDU, SPD and FDP currently governs Magdeburg. A continuation of the alliance seems unlikely. The FDP is below the mandate threshold in the surveys. The CDU and SPD together achieved just 30 percent in the pre-election survey.

Looking at the polls, Black-Red-Green would also be far away from a majority. The Greens are at six percent in the pre-election poll. One option would be a minority government, which would then be dependent on the left - as in Saxony and Thuringia.

What does the CDU say about the Left's tolerance?

There are reservations about this model in the CDU, which has an incompatibility decision for cooperation with the AfD and the Left. Two former CDU state leaders warned in July against tolerance by the left. Karl-Heinz Daehre and Gerd Gies wrote an open letter to Schulze. They warned that the CDU would "sink into insignificance" if it allowed itself to be tolerated by the left.

Schulze himself emphasizes that he “will not make himself dependent on the left or the AfD.” So far, however, he has been vague about working with the left. Personally, he gets along well with the top staff in the competition: SPD top candidate Armin Willingmann is already part of his cabinet, Green party top candidate Susan Sziborra-Seidlitz he sometimes calls "Suse" on podiums, and the exchange with Left party leader Eva von Angern is respectful.

Some members of the state parliament can imagine acting with changing majorities - including the AfD. In addition, the state leader of the Junge Union, Nico Elsner, was open to a majority with AfD votes. He rejects a government coalition with the party. But: "A right thing does not become wrong just because the wrong people agree." In the parliamentary process you have to work with the AfD because their representatives are elected, said Elsner.

Would the left even be willing to do that?

The left-wing top candidate from Angern signals a willingness to talk. She told MDR that she “doesn’t expect a love letter” from Schulze, but that he “will also talk to us if in doubt.” “As the left, we are prepared to do everything we can to keep the AfD away from the levers of power.”

Left-wing parliamentary group leader Sören Pellmann formulated conditions. "We won't help a CDU prime minister into office at any price. Then we want to have a say in terms of content - for example in domestic policy, in education policy or in health care in rural areas," he told the Rheinische Post.

What if there is no agreement between the parties for the time being?

There is no deadline in the state constitution for when a prime minister must be elected. Since parliamentary reform was passed in 2020, the parliamentary groups have more time to form a government. It could be that Schulze's government will remain in office for a while until a new model is in place.

The basic rule for the election of the Prime Minister is: whoever has the majority of all MPs is elected. In the third round, however, the majority of votes cast is sufficient.

What role could the BSW play?

The BSW leadership around party founder Sahra Wagenknecht considers the so-called firewall to have failed. The BSW, should it make it into parliament, wants to vote out Schulze and is campaigning for a "non-partisan prime minister" who governs with changing majorities with the involvement of the AfD. If the other parties do not support this, the BSW wants to abstain from electing a prime minister in the third round, which could pave the way for the AfD candidate.

Should Siegmund not be elected with a simple majority because he is aiming for a “stable team for five years”. But as a scenario it is possible.

Are minority governments a novelty?

No, probably the best-known example of a longer minority government is the “Magdeburg model” in Saxony-Anhalt. In 1994, the SPD and its Prime Minister Reinhard Höppner formed a red-green minority government, which was tolerated by the then PDS. When the Greens were thrown out of the state parliament in 1998, the model was continued with a purely SPD minority government. This lasted until the state elections in 2002.

There were also temporary minority governments in Lower Saxony, Saarland, Hesse and Berlin. They are currently available in Thuringia and Saxony. There are also examples in the federal government. Most recently with the departure of the FDP from the traffic light coalition. However, the term of office of previous minority governments in the federal government was often limited.

Bochum political scientist Oliver Lembcke told the Reuters news agency: "The more fragmented parliaments become, the more necessary compromises become." At the same time, part of the electorate sees these compromises as an expression of a political system that no longer functions. “Therein lies a fundamental paradox of the current state elections.”