AfD Wins Saxony-Anhalt Election, Doubling Support and Pressuring Chancellor Merz

Only 1.6 million eligible voters were called to choose a new state parliament in Saxony-Anhalt on Sunday, September 6. The region between the Elbe River and Harz Mountains in eastern Germany is outnumbered in population by 10 of Germany's total 16 federal states.

For weeks it was clear that the vote had become a major challenge for the federal government coalition of the conservative Union — of the Christian Democrats and their Bavarian sister party the Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) — and the center-left Social Democrats (SPD). In the last few months, there were even rumors in Berlin that German Chancellor Friedrich Merz of the CDU could step down following this vote — or that he would be forced to by his own party.

The in-part right-wing extremist Alternative for Germany (AfD) party won the election, doubling its percentage compared to the last election five years ago, while the ruling CDU lost half of its support. If the AfD now manages to form a government, the election would have serious consequences for the federal government in Berlin.

How the AfD win puts pressure on Chancellor Friedrich Merz

Political scientist Carsten Koschmieder from the Free University in Berlin does not believe Merz will give up.

"I do not have the impression that he is a person who would resign," Koschmieder told DW before the election. "Rather, he is very glad to be chancellor and has long worked toward that." In addition, there is currently no ready successor to Merz in the CDU and CSU, he added.

Koschmieder also predicted that a strong showing by the AfD would intensify pressure regarding the correct way to deal with the AfD, which is in parts right-wing extremist. The CDU has categorically ruled out working with the AfD, as have all other established German political parties.

Most analysts believe that engaging with the right-wing populists would massively damage the CDU/CSU. "There are many conservative democrats in the CDU who say: We have nothing to do with the AfD. They want to abolish our democracy; they support Russia's President Putin and oppose Western integration and European unity," Koschmieder explained.

Before he was elected chancellor in May 2025, Merz set the goal of halving support for the AfD, in part by adopting a tough migration policy. The fact that this has not succeeded, and instead the CDU has lost support, has yielded him much criticism within his party.

Could a CDU government get support from the Left Party?

It's also possible that the CDU in Saxony-Anhalt ends up forming a minority government with the SPD and the environmentalist Greens. But even such a three-way coalition is unlikely to have a majority in parliament.

This would mean it has to be tolerated, ironically, by the socialist Left Party. Ironic, because the CDU also wants to avoid any cooperation with the Left, as the chancellor reiterated in an interview with regional newspaper the Mitteldeutsche Zeitung: "Both the AfD and Left Party have such fundamental differences with the Union that cooperation is out of the question," Merz said on Tuesday.

Here, Koschmieder said, a double problem arises for Merz: Many local-level CDU politicians, especially in eastern Germany, consider cooperation with the AfD quite possible, and have categorically rejected working with the Left Party.

Merz's determined to press ahead with controversial pension reform plans

The chancellor seems resolved to carry on with his government, even amid growing dissatisfaction and rising pressure. This year, he still plans to bring his controversial reforms of the old age pension system through parliament, which have been heavily criticized by members of his own party on the campaign trail in Saxony-Anhalt.

But that hasn't discouraged Merz. "The pension system is no longer sustainable because of demographics, and we have known this for years," he said.

SPD hopes for success in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania

What about the Social Democrats? They have remained at around 8% of the vote in Saxony-Anhalt. This is a great improvement on what was being predicted six months ago.

In addition, the Social Democrat premier of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, Manuela Schwesig, has good odds of a renewed mandate in state parliament elections there on September 20. The SPD has made a strong comeback in the polls in the coastal state since last year; with around 30% of the vote, they could form a government with the Left Party, the CDU or potentially both.

This article was originally written in German. It was first published on September 3, and updated and republished to include the Saxony-Anhalt election results on September 6.