(Central News Agency reporter Dai Yazhen, Tokyo, 16th) Professor Eto Nayasuko of the Gakushuin University School of Law said today that the schedule of U.S. arms sales to Taiwan may be delayed due to the impact of high-level interactions between the U.S. and China, but it is unlikely that the U.S. will fully accept China’s claims on Taiwan. On the other hand, this year’s APEC summit in China will become an important indicator for observing the development of Sino-Japanese relations.
The Foreign Press Center of Japan (FPCJ) invited Nayasuko Eto to give a lecture in the afternoon on the topic of "China's foreign strategy and the direction of Japan-China relations."
Eto pointed out that China has continued to use "new militarism" to describe changes in Japan's security and defense policies in recent years, and related discussions have become an important part of China's policy toward Japan. She believes that such statements are not simply diplomatic criticism, but are closely related to China's domestic politics and ideology.
She said that since 2013, China has gradually emphasized the establishment of its own international narrative, hoping to enhance its influence in the international community through concepts such as "discourse power" and "discourse system." In this context, "new militarism" is not necessarily an objective description of Japan's reality, but more like a set of narrative tools that serve China's political and diplomatic needs.
However, Eto also pointed out that when China uses this kind of discourse to shape Japan's image for a long time, it may in turn limit its own foreign policy space. Because once the Japanese threat theory continues to be emphasized to the outside world, if we hope to improve relations with Japan in the future, we will inevitably face pressure from domestic public opinion.
On the other hand, China is also trying to introduce its own narrative on the Taiwan issue to the Trump administration in the United States. For example, it hopes that the United States will accept that "the Taiwan issue is China's internal affairs." However, she believes that the U.S. government system may not accept such a view.
As for arms sales to Taiwan, her personal judgment is that the United States may not announce a new major arms sale before the U.S.-China leaders’ summit in September this year, and may not even rule out delaying it until after the U.S. midterm elections. However, China’s demands cannot be fully accepted by the United States. A complete cessation of arms sales to Taiwan would significantly change the balance of power in East Asia, so the likelihood of this happening is low. However, the biggest feature of the Trump administration is still highly unpredictable, and it still needs to be continuously observed.
Talking about the prospects of Sino-Japanese relations that the outside world is concerned about, Eto believes that if the so-called improvement refers to restoring mutual trust or significantly improving bilateral relations, I am afraid that there are no clear signs yet. However, multilateral occasions, including the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), may become important opportunities for China and Japan to maintain communication.
She said that as the host country of APEC this year, China will definitely hope that the summit will be successful, so the possibility of not inviting Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi to attend is extremely low. She expects that China may even arrange a high-level reception, and the outside world will have the opportunity to see the leaders of China and Japan interacting and shaking hands in public.
However, Eto pointed out that there is still considerable uncertainty as to whether China and Japan can take this opportunity to hold formal leaders' talks. While China is pursuing the diplomatic outcomes of the summit, it will also carefully evaluate how to handle its relations with Japan in order to obtain the greatest diplomatic benefits for China.
Nonetheless, Eto believes that Sino-Japanese relations are not entirely pessimistic. She pointed out that economic exchanges between the two sides are still very close, many Japanese companies continue to delve into the Chinese market, and cooperation between companies also remains active. The more important issue for China and Japan at this stage is to establish an effective crisis management and communication mechanism, properly control frictions in the security and economic fields, and avoid further escalation of disputes. (Editor: Chen Chenggong) 1150616
