The attack on Saudi Arabia's main oil pipeline and the Yemeni Houthis' takeover of the Red Sea trade coast threaten to take away 4% of global oil supplies. The situation worsens the energy and inflationary crisis resulting from the war in the Middle East.
On Friday (10), drones hit the pipeline that connects Saudi oil fields in the west of the country to the port of Yanbu, on the Red Sea. Due to the restriction of transit through the Strait of Hormuz by Iran in conflict with the United States, the route has become vital for Riyadh's exports.
The second largest producer in the world, the kingdom began to flow up to 70% of its oil through the Red Sea. Friday's attack was launched from Iraq by allies of Iran and the Houthis according to the Saudis, but no one claimed responsibility.
According to news agencies, the oil stock in Yanbu lasts at most another week, and it is uncertain when the pipeline will be reactivated because the operator Aramco does not disclose the extent of the damage — which, based on satellite images, appeared extensive.
To worsen the situation for the Saudis, the Houthi rebels, supported by Iran, continue to consolidate their position on the Yemeni coast of the Red Sea.
They already control the access and islands of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which connects the region to the Indian Ocean, and this Sunday (13) they were preparing the assault on the last city in the north of the coast still dominated by the government of the internationally recognized country.
The rebels promise to allow the transit of any ships that do not have a destination or origin in Saudi ports, and are now better positioned to do so.
The blockade they had announced in July was not as effective as the Iranian one in Hormuz, where commercial traffic fell to about 10% of its pre-war level. 20% of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas production passed through the Persian Gulf before Donald Trump attacked Iran in February.
Fighting continued in the region this Sunday. According to the rebels, a Saudi military base was hit by the group's missiles, and Riyadh responded with 123 air strikes in 24 hours.
The Saudis have not commented on the military situation. The crisis in the Middle East has already caused the International Energy Agency to predict a 6% drop in global oil flows this year, and this could worsen with the escalation in the Red Sea.
The actions favor Iran's position in negotiations to reach peace with the US, which was pressured by a naval blockade and new sanctions. Trump, somewhat surprisingly and which may hint at some diplomatic move, refused to attack the Houthis as he has done in the past — even with requests from Riyadh's allies.
In this new round of attacks, the price of a Brent barrel, a reference in futures contracts, reached US$107, having stabilized at around US$105. Immediately before the start of the war, it was at US$70, and reached US$114 in May, at the height of tensions.
On the other side of the Arabian peninsula, in Hormuz, an explosion hit an oil tanker near the island of Qeshm. Tehran attributed the attack to the Americans, who are also blocking its ports, but the US has not yet commented.
In a move to accommodate, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said the crisis with the United Arab Emirates was "behind us" after meeting Abu Dhabi's Crown Prince Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed.
Both were at the Brics summit, a group made up of Brazil, which ended this Sunday in India. The two countries were integrated into the bloc in 2023 at the initiative of China, which wanted to give the association more political weight.
The result was not cohesive, and the war soured things. The UAE has received nearly 3,000 retaliatory strikes from Iran in the conflict, more than any other US-allied Persian Gulf country. The prince did not speak.
