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Donald Trump has met with Xi Jinping more often over the past year than any American president has met with a Chinese president before him. But now the next summit is over, and not a single problem in relations between the two main powers of the planet has been resolved. Why?
Because despite the apparent warm relations and Trump’s desire to be on friendly terms with the powerful ruler of communist China, the two countries remain irreconcilable rivals for leadership in the world - military, economic and technological.
However, now neither side has the ability to defeat the other, so they are maintaining a fragile truce until they gain strength for a decisive battle, experts say.
In addition, they still have more important concerns: Trump has a war with Iran and elections to Congress, Xi has strengthening the vertical of power before the next extension of powers and economic problems at home.
Therefore, Xi’s visit to America this week, as expected, turned into a ceremonial event with minimal fuss.
Xi lent two pandas to an American zoo, Trump boasted of a new helipad, but in the end everyone stood their ground - and the only important agreement was a two-month extension of the trade war truce reached almost a year ago at Xi's first meeting with Trump since his return to the White House for a second term.
Since then, Trump and Xi have visited each other frequently. The American president traveled to Beijing in May, has now received the Chinese chairman in Washington, and in November they will see each other again at the APEC forum in Shenzhen, after which Xi will return to the US for the G20 summit, where Trump has also invited Vladimir Putin to the outrage of Europeans and other allies of Ukraine.
The truce is temporary, problems lie ahead
The summit did not live up to even the most modest expectations, says sinologist Scott Kennedy of the US Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
“Trump wants stability, pomp, close personal relationships. The Chinese also want stability, they received a truce on favorable terms and want to maintain it, Kennedy said. “But this is a very fragile truce.” It was extended for only two months. Why not for six months or a year? That’s the main question.”
“Neither Trump nor Xi are clearly in a hurry to make concessions. It remains to be hoped that the third and fourth acts of this diplomatic play in Shenzhen and Miami will bring more tangible results.”
Don't count on it, warns Columbia University professor Thomas Christensen, one of America's leading experts on China.
“Many people believe that we have détente, a serious turnaround in US-China relations,” he said. — For me, this truce is temporary and very fragile. We will face serious problems within a year.”
Firstly, because of Taiwan. Taking advantage of Trump's pliability, China is trying to move the flags and passing off his free thinking about Taiwan in communications with the press after his May visit to Beijing as Washington's official position. Now China is actually demanding that the United States oppose the independence of the island and not sell weapons to it.
Neither Congress nor the White House are going to do anything like this, and this is the first and main reason for the likely future aggravation, says Thomas Christensen, who previously oversaw relations with China and Taiwan at the US State Department.
Another reason is Iran. China is not going to sever economic ties with the Islamic Republic and is helping it fight America. At some point, Trump's patience may run out. And just then a new law on sanctions against Russia and Iran arrived, which expanded his powers to punish those who help them wage war.
But for now - peace, friendship, chewing gum. The summit did not reveal any tension. This is because the goals of the meeting were minimally ambitious and expectations were extremely low, Kennedy says. The main goal was not to quarrel in public, and not to solve long-standing problems.
“The agenda of the previous visit 11 years ago was much broader,” he notes. — The contrast is very strong. Which once again proves that the relationship is much more fragile now.”
"Tense Calm"
The last time Xi Jinping was hosted in Washington was Barack Obama.
Not only the agenda, but also the choreography of the two state visits are strikingly different, notes Obama adviser Ryan Hass, who personally prepared the previous meeting.
“No private dinner before the summit, no lunch, no press conference. It seems that the only purpose of the visit is protocol,” shares his observations Ryan Hass, now director of the China Center at the American Brookings Institution.
“The whole morning is devoted to ceremonies and protocol events. For a meeting behind closed doors in the Oval Office - that is, for discussing the most complex and sensitive issues - only half an hour was allocated, and with consecutive translation, which further reduces the time for a meaningful conversation.”
And only businessmen loyal to Trump, his entourage and relatives were invited to dinner. Last time, under Obama, Xi had to dine in a less comfortable company of journalists, cultural figures, and even the head of the China department of the human rights organization Human Rights Watch, which is hated by Beijing.
Therefore, the Chinese are much more pleasant to deal with Trump, says Ryan Hass. Trump is the dream of the Chinese regime; he does not emphasize human rights and does not demand political and economic reforms from China.
“Trump always respects both Xi and China as equals in public,” Hass said.
This is enough for China for now, and it is also beneficial for the Americans to maintain the status quo, since neither side has a margin of safety for escalation.
“Right now there is a tense lull in US-China relations. The real problems have not gone away and are only getting worse - from trade and economics to geopolitics, including Iran, writes Hass. “Yet both sides see more risks than benefits in abandoning the fragile stability that both leaders have maintained since a truce was agreed upon in person last fall.”
Time is on their side
Both the US and China are confident that time is on their side, they just have to wait. Therefore, they are avoiding escalation now, when no one is ready for it.
The Americans believed in victory from the very beginning, and leadership in AI technologies gave them even more confidence. The Chinese were first encouraged by the victory over Trump in his own trade war, then by the Iranian conflict, in which they unexpectedly emerged as the main stabilizing force in the global energy market.
Upon returning to power, Trump promised to crack down on China, but, having received rebuff, he eventually lowered the initially prohibitive duties on Chinese goods and agreed to a truce.
The Chinese are going to support him for two reasons, says Ryan Hass.
First, they are confident that America is weakening and China is growing stronger. At each of his last two meetings with Trump, Xi Jinping spoke of the need to avoid the “Thucydides Trap,” which promises war at a turning point in history when a rising power challenges a dominant power and it begins to fire back. However, for now, China recognizes that the United States is the leading economic, financial and military power on the planet, and Trump has not yet managed to destroy all Western alliances.
Therefore, China can still conduct a conversation on equal terms, but from a position of strength, not yet. Right now, the US and China are too dependent on each other to fight.
And secondly, because the Chinese are not ready to negotiate a new order with Trump, because they know the value of his word, and are also aware that the ruling circles in the United States view China as a rival for dominance in the world and are potentially capable of escalation as soon as Trump retires.
Any attempts to resolve the eternal problems between the two leading powers of the planet are fraught with friction and conflict. Therefore, for now, they prefer to put them on the back burner and focus on form rather than content: shaking hands, rolling out carpets and praising their wisdom and foresight. This is what has been happening for the last three days in Washington.
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