ARD Capital Studio: In the past few days, the BSW leadership has received very different news. In Thuringia, the state parliamentary group almost completely left the party on Friday. And yesterday the entry into the state parliament of Saxony-Anhalt. Which course has now been set: a long-term BSW party or will it remain a temporary protest phenomenon?
Aiko Wagner: It's very difficult to predict at the moment. A few days ago I would have bet that the BSW would be heading towards its end after the aforementioned divisive behavior was seen in Thuringia. And I think many people didn't expect the BSW to reach the five percent hurdle in Saxony-Anhalt.
Now things look completely different, the BSW is now in an incredibly strong position. It is the kingmaker who can decide which direction Saxony-Anhalt wants to go. A very exciting development.
ARD Capital Studio: Infratest dimap's so-called voter migration showed that the BSW won votes from both the Left and the CDU, as well as from non-voters. What exactly motivates the typical BSW voter?
Wagner: A typical BSW voter is characterized by the fact that he represents rather conservative socio-political positions and cannot do much with too much environmental protection, too much gender equality, too much migration-friendliness and international openness. Secondly, he may be a little more skeptical about support for Ukraine, may have a greater understanding of Russia and would much prefer an agreement with Russia. In terms of distribution policy, he tends to represent center to left-wing positions and is also in favor of welfare state benefits.
Voters like BSW founder Sahra Wagenknecht as a person, which is a unifying element among most BSW supporters. And they are people who have a problem with the functioning of democracy and who have a slight populist attitude complex, i.e. who are very skeptical about the integrity of political elites, but also of economic, media and other elites and who believe that with common sense the preferences of the population could actually be implemented well.
This mix is what defines the BSW voter, and here we also see some overlaps with some of the existing parties, but also with the AfD. That's why I would place the BSW between the established parties and the AfD on many issues.
ARD-Hauptstadtstudio: If the BSW now finds itself in this situation, which the party founder specifically wanted, to be the tip of the scales when the next government is formed: What do you think is the likely path? The AfD prime minister could be confirmed by abstaining in the third round of voting. You could support the other parties. And there is our own idea of appointing a non-partisan prime minister. Which direction will it go?
Wagner: I can't imagine that anyone would take part in this third proposal from a non-partisan Prime Minister. As far as I know, not many names have been discussed so far. In general, this is a model that hasn't been tested in Germany at all, and I can't imagine how it's supposed to work, and who should actually support this government? Why should the AfD refrain from taking over the government after the election results? That doesn't really make sense to me.
Otherwise, the BSW has sent different signals: no coalition with the AfD, perhaps selective cooperation - the AfD doesn't want that. That means you have to see which of the two parties is moving a little more or whether anyone is moving at all.
And the third alternative, that the BSW joins the established parties and supports a government that is probably very complicated, is very unlikely in my opinion - especially after the split in Thuringia, where exactly this path led to the break, that they support a government that then also has to organize complicated majority relationships in parliament. However, the BSW currently has the comfortable situation of being able to wait and see what the other parties have to offer. I think we'll have to savor it for now.
ARD-Hauptstadtstudio: But can a scenario work of abstaining in the third round of the prime minister election and thereby supporting the AfD prime minister and the AfD in a minority government?
Wagner: We know this "one-foot-in, one-foot-out" strategy from other populist parties from other countries, which means that you tolerate a government and don't really hold yourself responsible, including for the results of the government's policies, but simply say that we support where we want, but don't want to be held responsible for the policy results or for the situation in the country.
I rather wonder whether the AfD has an interest in forming such a difficult government. The AfD has no experience of governing, which means it would be a double challenge for them.
ARD Capital Studio: Despite yesterday's election success, the BSW's internal problems remain, the accusation that - as in Thuringia - the party founder and also the federal level interfere in the decisions of the party structures in the states. Can this be changed at all or is this not the basic problem of the BSW?
Wagner: This is already a structural feature of the BSW. This is a party that is much more tailored to the federal leadership than other parties that are organized in a much more decentralized manner. This means that there will always be a strong influence that regional associations strongly resist. We saw that in Brandenburg and, as I said, also in Thuringia. The question will rather be how willing the BSW in Saxony-Anhalt is to follow the federal leadership. And if that is the case, then there will be good cooperation between the state and federal BSW.
ARD Capital Studio: After yesterday's election, there are two next ones in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin: Can the BSW hope to be noticed and move in there, or does it not matter there because the alliance is not actually needed there?
Wagner: Election successes obviously bring a bit of tailwind, on the one hand for the people running the election campaign and on the other hand, of course, for the voters. They see that this is a party that can get into parliament, that it also plays a role and that is not unimportant.
ARD-Hauptstadtstudio: What do you think in terms of strategic direction: Will we try to establish ourselves as a kind of Eastern party or will there also be an attempt to gain an even stronger foothold in the West?
Wagner: With regard to national or European political successes, you simply need successes, also in the West, because the population proportions of the Federal Republic are such that the East is so much smaller than the West, so that you definitely also need votes in the West for a long-term establishment.
But it is also true that the breeding ground for the BSW lies in the East, with content such as Ukraine and Russia policy, but also socio-political questions and tax and economic policy. There is a greater fit with the BSW in the east. And we also know that satisfaction with democracy is lower in East Germany than in West Germany, which would of course address the protest nature of the BSW. So the chances in the east will continue to be stronger for the BSW than in the west, at least in the short term.
ARD Capital Studio: Do you see a future for the BSW?
Wagner: After yesterday evening, I would say that I actually see a future for the BSW in the sense that it is an alternative not only to the established parties, but perhaps also an alternative to the AfD. For people who are very dissatisfied with the existence and functioning of democracy, with the current range of parties offered by the large or established parties on the one hand, but who feel repelled by the increasingly clear right-wing extremism of the AfD. People who want to express their displeasure in some way, but not with the AfD.
The interview was conducted by Frank Aischmann, ARD Capital Studio. It has been slightly adapted for the written version.
