Independent researcher Dr. Mustafa Işık wrote about the results of the presidential elections in Bulgaria for AA Analysis within the framework of the country's internal political dynamics and geopolitical developments in the Black Sea.
When discussing the developments in the Balkans, it is not possible to evaluate them independently of Eastern Europe and the Black Sea. Viktor Orban's loss of elections in Hungary and a more innovative group coming to power with Peter Magyar, the election of pro-European Nicusor Dan as President in Romania, and finally the end of Aleksandar Vucic's rule in Serbia show that the politics of change is generally dominant in the Balkans. On the other hand, internal dynamics and developments in the Black Sea reveal the search for stability in Bulgarian politics.
Political alliances and division
Apart from all these examples, Bulgaria follows a different path. Eight parliamentary elections in the last five years and ongoing domestic political turmoil have brought the political leadership of former Air Force Commander Rumen Radev to the fore. Coming from a nationalist and socialist base, Radev resigned from the presidency last year by founding the "Progresivna Bulgariya" (Progressive Bulgaria) movement, and his deputy, Iliyana Yotova, took over. Radev, who served as president for two terms from 2017 to 2026, pursued a multidimensional approach that prioritized national interests in foreign policy, while pursuing a policy against oligarchy and corruption in domestic politics. On the other hand, while the Russia-Ukraine War, which started in February 2022, strengthened the Russophile, Euro-Atlanticist divide in Bulgaria, Radev and Yotova opposed the sending of military supplies to Ukraine.
Iliyana Yotova, the first female president in Bulgarian political history, started her career at Bulgarian State Television. He later continued as the director of the Press and Publication Center within the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP). Then he became a BSP MP. With Bulgaria's membership in the European Union (EU), he served as a member of the European Parliament (2007-2017) representing the Socialist Party in Brussels, and eventually became the vice president of Rumen Radev. Yotova, who spent most of her political career within the BSP, continued her politics along a nationalist and socialist line. Arguing that Bulgaria should have its own foreign policy within the EU, Yotova emphasized strong national policies rather than common EU policies.
His opponent in the last presidential election, Andrey Gyurov, came to the fore with a foreign policy approach that is more compatible with the EU and NATO. The Euro-Atlantic wing in the country tried to create a new bloc against Radev and pro-Russian politics, based on Gyurov's performance during the interim prime ministership. The leading actors of pro-Western politics in the country supported Gyurov by creating an independent platform, and Euro-Atlanticist groups, which were scattered against the socialist cadres coming to power again, united around Gyurov.
A democracy declaration was published by the Democratic Action Forum a few days before the election. In the declaration supported by former presidents Petar Stoyanov, Rosen Plevneliev and GERB Party leader Boyko Borisov, various democratic political groups and former ministers, supporting Andrey Gyurov was described as a "civilizational choice".
Korman Ismailov and his team are among the important politicians who support Gyurov from the Turkish and Muslim minority by displaying a democratic attitude. After the election went to the second round, the Peevski group of the Movement for Rights and Freedoms (HÖH) supported Gyurov, while Ahmed Doğan's Alliance for Rights and Freedoms (APS) movement supported Yotova.
The ballot box results of this critical election, in which the voter participation rate remained at 28.67 percent, clearly revealed the political and geographical separation in the country.
• Iliyana Yotova – Kiril Valchev: 1,093,852 votes (57.56 percent)
• Andrey Gyurov – Georgi Kandev: 750,251 votes (39.48 percent)
• Those who do not support any candidate: 56,080 votes (2.95 percent)
What do the results say?
Looking at the political map, Yotova gained the upper hand in 28 of 31 electoral districts. Gyurov came first in two constituencies in Sofia and in Kardzhali, where the Turkish/Muslim population is dense. The Euro-Atlanticist trend was decisive in the polls abroad, and according to 99 percent of the protocols counted, Gyurov received 56.23 percent (59,705) votes abroad, while Yotova received 41.55 percent (44,125) votes. This table shows that the Radev and Yotova line maintains its power over the nationalist-socialist base within the country, while the Euro-Atlantic tendency is still strong in the votes abroad.
It is observed that the votes from abroad have generally decreased in this last election. Although there were periods when more than 90 thousand votes were cast in the ballot boxes in Türkiye in previous elections, 10 thousand 261 votes were cast in this election. While 57.44 percent of these votes were cast for Gyurov, 40.9 percent were cast for Yotova. The election participation rate went down in history as the lowest level of all time in both Bulgaria and Türkiye.
Yotova thanked the post-election Progressive Bulgaria movement, as well as the BSP, far-right Internal Macedonian Revolutionary Organization-Bulgarian National Movement (VMRO-BND) leader Krasimir Karakachanov, and the Second Simeon National Movement (NDSV). The support of the Vızrajdane Party in the second round, which helped Yotova win the election by a wide margin, should not be forgotten. Vizrajdane Party, which has anti-European and Russophile tendencies, draws attention as the political formation closest to the Radev-Yotova line regarding the Russia-Ukraine War and the issues in the Black Sea. We can say that Yotova managed to win the election by creating a nationalist and securityist front along the lines of Radev.
While Yotova is expected to continue Radev's cautious and diplomacy-oriented approach in foreign policy, the emphasis on "dialogue" will be at the forefront in the Russia-Ukraine War. At the same time, Yotova, who is not expected to ignore the Russian factor in regional issues, will have a more balanced discourse between the EU and Russia. On the issue of North Macedonia, it is predicted that the nationalist line followed during the Radev period will be preserved.
On the other hand, the fact that the prime minister and the president come from similar political understandings indicates that the differences in discourse that were frequently encountered in the past may be replaced by a more coordinated foreign policy approach. Yotova's victory in the presidency cannot be explained solely by the nationalist-socialist base; this result should also be read as a security-oriented orientation. On the other hand, the fact that voter turnout remains at a low level, below 30 percent, compared to other countries in the region, confirms the existence of a disgruntled and apolitical electorate in the context of internal dynamics.
The latest developments in the Black Sea will highlight the importance and strategic position of Bulgaria. The continuation of the Russia-Ukraine War will make security-oriented foreign policy a priority in the region. In this process, President Yotova and Radev's government is expected to cooperate more with Türkiye and Romania regarding the security of commercial ships in the Black Sea. On the other hand, the Russian factor maintains its presence in Bulgarian politics as a historical reality. On the other hand, it is eagerly awaited whether Bulgaria, a member of the EU and NATO, will show a more autonomous political tendency in foreign policy.
