Geopolitics and tariff pressure: India’s Andhra Pradesh shrimp industry faces existential challenges

India is the world's second largest shrimp producer after Ecuador. However, the U.S. tariff policy has come one after another. The shrimp industry in Andhra Pradesh, India, has just recovered from the impact of the last round of tariffs and may now face a new trade storm. Andhra Pradesh is India's important shrimp export base. Hundreds of thousands of local farmers and millions of related employees rely on this industry for their livelihoods. However, in the past year, from US tariffs and Russian oil disputes to shrimp diseases and feed price increases, successive shocks have put Indian shrimp farmers under unprecedented pressure.

According to Indian media reports, it is pointed out that geopolitics is killing Andhra shrimp. The U.S. House of Representatives recently passed a bill related to sanctions against Russia, which will impose tariffs of up to 100% on countries that purchase Russian oil and natural gas. Countries such as India and China that purchase large quantities of Russian fuel may face a huge impact.

The report pointed out that although this does not mean that the United States has imposed 100% tariffs on Indian goods. Even if the relevant bill becomes law, it will only give the US president the power to take action. It does not mean that Indian goods will automatically face 100% tariffs. However, for Andhra Pradesh's shrimp industry, which has just experienced a major export crisis, any further restrictions on the US market may once again set off a huge impact.

What really worries Andhra Pradesh is that they have already suffered once. In 2025, the United States first imposed a 25% tariff on Indian goods, and then imposed an additional 25% tariff on India's purchase of Russian oil. Together with the existing countervailing duties and anti-dumping duties, the actual tariff burden on Indian shrimp is as high as approximately 59.72%. In the past, India was the largest supplier of frozen shrimp to the United States, and the United States was also India's largest market. 50 to 60% of Indian shrimp was exported to the United States.

The Andhra Pradesh government estimates that as of September 2025, US tariffs have caused losses of approximately 250 billion rupees to the local shrimp export industry, with approximately 50% of export orders cancelled, and approximately 2,000 containers facing a tariff burden of nearly 60 billion rupees.

The impact of tariffs has also been transmitted all the way to farmers. In order to reduce costs, exporters have lowered the price of shrimp purchased from farmers, which has dropped by nearly 20% in August 2025. However, costs such as loans, feed and electricity have not dropped simultaneously, and some farmers have even considered stopping shrimp farming.

It was not until February 2026 that the situation showed a slight turn for the better. The US-India trade framework has reduced the broad reciprocal tariffs on Indian goods to 18% and canceled the 25% tariff previously imposed due to India's purchase of Russian oil, giving the Indian shrimp industry a temporary sigh of relief. However, the market did not recover immediately as its main competitor Ecuador has taken away some of the US market while India's exports have been blocked. At that time, Indian exporters stated that there had been almost no new orders in the U.S. market since October 2025, and it would take time to re-establish customers and market share.

The export market has not yet fully recovered, and breeding costs have begun to rise again. In June 2026, the price of shrimp feed increased by 12 to 16 rupees per kilogram, and feed accounted for about half of the breeding cost. After the intervention of the Andhra Pradesh government, the price was reduced by 4 rupees per kilogram, and the maximum retail price dropped from 112 rupees to 108 rupees.

There are currently about 216,000 aquaculture farmers in Andhra Pradesh, with a farming area of ​​579,000 acres. The Indian government is actively expanding into markets such as China, Japan, Europe and Australia to reduce its dependence on the United States, but the United States is still an important export market; the U.S. Department of Commerce also imposed anti-dumping duties of 4.04% to 7.01% on Indian frozen warm-water shrimp on September 4.

The movements in the U.S. Congress in September cannot be directly interpreted as "Indian shrimp will face 100% tariffs." The real key lies in whether the U.S. government will use relevant authorizations in the future. For Andhra Pradesh, tariffs, diseases, feed costs and market prices have put pressure on it one after another. How to diversify the export market has become the key to whether the industry can survive the next wave of shocks.