The increase in costs will be felt especially in the large metropolitan areas of the country. At the top of the ranking is Rome, where the highest estimated expenditure reaches 68.5 million euros, followed by Milan with 49.5 million, Naples with 39.6 million, Brescia with 31.2 million, Turin with 27.8 million and Bari with 25.6 million. The CGIA's calculations compare the average prices of petrol and diesel for transport recorded in 2025 with those estimated for 2026, assuming unchanged consumption compared to last year.
According to the association, the temporary discounts introduced by the main companies are not sufficient to stem the effects of the price increases accumulated in recent months. In fact, since the beginning of the conflict in the Middle East, the average price of petrol has increased by 29.1%, while that of diesel fuel has risen by 36.6%. For the CGIA, "until the conflict in the Middle East ends, it is difficult to imagine that prices at the pump will return to pre-crisis levels. Tensions on supplies, uncertainty about crude oil routes and the volatility of energy markets continue to be reflected in the price of petrol and diesel".
Those who pay the greatest consequences are above all commuters who live in areas poorly served by public transport and who depend on the car to get to work. For many families, fuel has become an increasingly significant expense item, capable of reducing purchasing power and forcing them to give up other items. Economic activities that base their work on mobility and transport are even more exposed. Truckers, farmers, fishermen, taxi drivers and small service businesses are facing increasing operating costs, which are often difficult to pass on to customers.
While waiting for a solution on an international level, the CGIA identifies some possible ways to support families and businesses. The first consists of "mitigating prices by cutting expenditure". According to the association, "in 2026, net of interest, our country's public spending will reach a record level of almost 1,090 billion euros: a contraction of even just 1 percent would free up almost 11 billion euros, resources that could be used to contain increases in the prices of petrol, diesel and, in view of next winter, also electricity and gas". The CGIA underlines that it would not be a question of intervening on welfare, but rather of acting on waste, inefficiencies and expenditure items considered less priority.
Among the possible sources of coverage, a review of tax breaks is also indicated: "Italians benefit from as many as 130 billion euros in tax breaks between deductions and deductions every year. We ask ourselves: given the emergency situation we are going through, wouldn't it be possible, through a careful rationalization of these benefits, to recover around ten billion euros to be allocated to combating high fuel prices?", we read in the CGIA analysis.
An alternative, according to the Association, would be the use of greater debt, subject to authorization by the European institutions. "With three months to go before the end of the year, reducing budget expenditure appears to be a technically difficult operation to carry out." The CGIA criticizes the attitude of the European Union which, unlike what happened in 2022 after the outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, did not grant member countries the possibility of overcoming budget constraints to at least partially offset the price increases.
According to the CGIA, this choice risks fueling protests especially among the categories most affected by the increase in fuel costs. Hauliers, fishermen and farmers are already in a state of agitation in several European countries. While recognizing that an increase in debt would transfer the problem to future generations without solving the structural causes, the association highlights how such a measure could offer support to motorists and businesses, "which could recover some liquidity to be able to get by".
