After the recent stabilization in the morning, the DAX struggled to find direction. In early trading, the leading German index was unchanged at 26,065 points. On Friday it rose to 26,167 points, but then turned away before the 21-day line, which is considered a short-term trend indicator. The week-and-a-half-old record high of 26,618 points remains out of reach for now.
Among the individual stocks, the consumer goods group Henkel, which is planning further acquisitions, could be worth a look today. “In the past few months we have agreed or completed company acquisitions worth a total of around five billion euros,” said Henkel boss Carsten Knobel to the “Rheinische Post”. In this way, Henkel is strengthening its two areas, Adhesive Technologies and Consumer Brands.
At the start of the week, the results of the state elections in Saxony-Anhalt are likely to be a topic of conversation. The AfD won the election by a large margin, but according to the provisional official final result, fell short of an absolute majority.
Employers are now warning about the economic consequences of the election results. "A climate of isolation is poison for the location," said Steffen Kampeter, General Manager of the Confederation of German Employers' Associations: "This result must be an incentive to regain trust and prove that politics can solve problems." Carsten Brzeski, chief economist at ING, also emphasizes that one should not overestimate the election result: "Sure, there could be a symbolic effect on foreign investors. But let's not forget that Saxony-Anhalt is not the entire German economy."
In the short term, another development is more relevant for investors: the situation on the energy market. Fears of a long-term interruption in oil supplies from the Middle East pushed the price of oil further towards the $100 mark at the start of the week. North Sea oil Brent and US oil WTI rose by 1.3 percent to $97.53 and $92.71 per barrel, respectively. One reason is Tehran's announcement that it will set up an exclusion zone outside the Strait of Hormuz in the coming days.
Shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz had already fallen to its lowest level since May. In the past ten days, an average of only ten cargo ships per day have passed through the strait, according to data from analysis company Kpler.
"In an upside scenario where attacks on ships expand and intensify, we see Brent potentially at $120," said Daan Struyven, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs, in an interview with Bloomberg TV.
The high energy prices are also putting a strain on production in Germany: In energy-intensive industries, production fell by 1.7 percent in July compared to the previous month. And overall production also fell significantly: German companies surprisingly cut back their production more in July than they had in almost a year. Industry, construction and energy suppliers together produced 1.1 percent less than in the previous month, as the Federal Statistical Office announced.
This is the biggest loss since August 2025, which was contributed by a dip in the auto industry during the summer holidays and problems with shipping on the Rhine. Nevertheless, Jens-Oliver Niklasch from LBBW is optimistic: "There was a small increase in the three-month comparison. This fits with our story of the small upward trend reversal. The coming months should support this assessment."
The inflationary impulses resulting from high oil prices are fueling market expectations that central banks could raise interest rates further. The highlight of the week is likely to be the European Central Bank's interest rate meeting on Thursday. “There is now broad consensus that the ECB will raise interest rates by 0.25 percentage points to 2.5 percent,” said Edgar Walk, chief economist at Metzler Asset Management. The more exciting question is what comes next.
What is even more interesting for investors is the US Federal Reserve's next interest rate decision next week. A first indicator of this is likely to be the US inflation data due on Friday. They will become a decisive guide for the further development of interest rates in the USA, emphasized capital market strategist Jürgen Molnar from the broker Robomarkets.
Today, however, investors cannot hope for guidelines from the USA; there will be no trading in the USA on Monday due to Labor Day, a public holiday. The US standard value index Dow Jones closed trading on Friday with a loss of 0.5 percent at 53,414 points.
