DAX hardly changed before Xi-Trump meeting – oil prices and returns weigh on

Dusseldorf. Investors are initially holding back before the meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump. The Dax was barely changed at 25,354 points on Thursday morning. On Wednesday it ended trading around 0.7 percent in the red at 25,410 points.

Xi's first trip to the US in nearly three years will focus on tensions between the superpowers over trade and technology. A state banquet is planned for the evening, which will also be attended by the heads of US companies such as Apple, Nvidia, OpenAI and JPMorgan. Before that, the first statements from the heads of state are expected in the afternoon German time.

In the run-up to the three-day state visit, the US government recently extended the tariff break in the trade conflict with China. According to US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, the agreement has been extended until January 10th.

The high oil price continues to have a negative impact. At the start of the stock exchange in Frankfurt, North Sea Brent crude oil for delivery in November rose by 0.5 percent to $103.56 per barrel. On Wednesday, the Brent price temporarily rose by more than four percent.

The reason for this is the ongoing tense situation in the Middle East. The Strait of Hormuz, which is important for oil transport, is still barely navigable. On Wednesday, Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, Mohsen Rezaei, said the Strait of Hormuz would not be reopened until Iran's conditions were met.

Yields on government bonds have also recently risen again after strong US economic data led to rising interest rate expectations in the markets. For example, the yield on ten-year US government bonds rose to 5.13 percent on Wednesday - reaching its highest level in almost 20 years. Yields on European bonds also rose.

“This brings together a number of negative factors: high energy prices, rising returns and geopolitical uncertainty,” says Andreas Lipkow, chief market analyst at CMC Markets. As long as there are no clear signs of easing on any of these three issues, a comprehensive upward trend in the DAX is unlikely.

Investors are meanwhile looking at the Ifo business climate index, which will be published this morning. Experts polled by Reuters expect the barometer to improve for the fifth consecutive time in September.

The leading economic research institutes also present their autumn forecasts. As Handelsblatt previously reported, they are raising their growth forecast for gross domestic product (GDP) to 1.3 percent this year and to 1.1 percent for 2027.