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Back德媒评论:习近平如何利用特朗普的个人外交策略
德媒评论:习近平如何利用特朗普的个人外交策略
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德国之声2 hours agoPolitics6 min readChinaView translation

德媒评论:习近平如何利用特朗普的个人外交策略

《法兰克福汇报》与《商报》分析中美领导人会晤背后的权力博弈与地缘政治影响

Quick Look

德国媒体分析称,习近平在华盛顿峰会中通过个人外交成功应对特朗普,利用其对威权领导人的崇敬及中期选举压力,为中国争取战略时间。评论指出,中美争霸实质未变,特朗普的对华软弱削弱了美国盟友信任。

AI-generated summary

Why It Matters

中美两国正处于贸易摩擦与地缘政治竞争的复杂阶段。特朗普政府面临中期选举压力,而中国则致力于经济稳定与政治连任。

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(德国之声中文网)《法兰克福汇报》写道,此次习近平的访美行程中,特朗普对这位威权统治者表现出了极高的的崇敬,并坚信他已同习近平建立起了深厚的个人友谊。而北京则认为,特朗普坐镇白宫是中国崛起的难得机遇。这篇题为《习近平将特朗普玩弄于股掌之间》的评论写道:

“几周后即将举行的中期选举,情势对共和党似乎并不有利。在此关键时刻,特朗普显然不希望让贸易战再度升级。而对习近平来说,尽管中国的出口数据非常强劲,但总体经济形势却并不乐观。此外,今年十月即将举行的五中全会上将为明年的党代会定下基调。习近平的重中之重是届时能够再度连任。

在此背景下,对于来自特朗普的各类阿谀奉承,习近平全盘笑纳,却并没有做出任何实质性的回报。这位中国领导人宁愿让特朗普继续相信,他们两人之间已经建立起了个人友谊。特朗普发起关税战后,习近平实施的反关税以及出口管制,显然已经彻底驯服了特朗普。

但这一切都并没有改变中美争霸的实质:美国禁止进口中国产的无人机和机器人,并发出威胁称,如果中国继续购买伊朗石油就将实施更多的制裁。而中国也没有完全兑现去年十一月出口稀土的承诺,并继续向伊朗提供卫星资料和军备物资。中美之间的不信任此次在华盛顿也有所体现:美国只将贸易停火期延长了两个月。也就是说,仅仅延期至美国中期选举过后。而此次中期选举后,特朗普有可能会变成‘跛脚鸭’总统,他对对华政策的管控力也可能会大打折扣。另一方面,这也是为了向习近平施压,迫使他12月再度访美出席G20峰会。”

《法兰克福汇报》评论写道,习近平显然是这次华盛顿峰会的赢家,因为特朗普只字未提北京对日本和台湾构成的威胁。这无疑会削弱亚洲盟友对美国的信任,而这也正是习近平所求之不得的:

“有鉴于此,当前的相持局面并没有带给中美关系的真正缓解,反而为北京争取到了更充裕的时间,以加强从供应链到军事领域的主导地位。中美领导人似乎既无意愿、也无能力迈出建设性的步骤。两个权力中心之间的猜疑过于深重,而习近平又对自己政治决策的正确性坚信不疑。现在的问题仅仅是,中美双方将如何应对冲突,以避免引爆军事升级。对欧洲来说,这也就意味着:我们要不要参与贸易战?早已不再是个问题,我们已经置身于这场制度之争。现在的关键是,我们应如何去应对,以及应如何减少损失。面对当下的世界以及如此的世界领袖,我们已别无选择。”

”特朗普似乎对威权统治者羡慕不已“

《商报》评论写道,习近平在华盛顿逗留了44个小时,但特朗普安排的政治会谈却只有区区两个小时:

“这位美国总统显然不愿花费时间去思考对华关系的复杂细节。他这样做有两个原因。首先他似乎对威权统治者羡慕不已。此前特朗普也曾以最高礼遇在阿拉斯加欢迎俄罗斯总统普京到访,现在更是向普京发出了迈阿密G20峰会的邀请。

普京和习近平等威权统治者管控民众的能力,显然给特朗普留下了深刻的印象。而威权统治者不受约束的权力恰恰是因为民主监督的缺失。特朗普高调欢迎习近平来访的另一个原因是,特朗普似乎认为,同中国的竞争中,美国目前处于劣势。他深知,一旦中国叫停稀土出口,美国将蒙受巨大的冲击。因此,他不希望在中期选举前让美中贸易战再度升级。

特朗普发动的伊朗战争已经使美国的军火库存大幅减少。此外,美国还不得不大量集结兵力,以随时再度对伊朗发动攻击。因此,派驻印太地区的兵力也就出现了空缺。但特朗普显然忽视了一点:中国的经济现在非常疲软,而中国的军力仍同美国有很大差距。这种局面下,本应加强同盟友的军事合作,但特朗普却宁肯选择辱骂和贬损盟友。

民调显示,美国民众已经看出了特朗普在外交政策上显露出的软弱。而特朗普的所作所为,不仅会危害他本人的连任前景,也在危害美国乃至整个民主世界的安全。对特朗普来说,人权和新闻自由根本不值一提。与此同时,他还在削弱联合国和国际刑事法庭等国际机构。”

What to Watch

AI outlook — possibilities, not facts

  • 特朗普可能在12月G20峰会前继续对华施压。

    Likely · Within months

Open Questions

  • 中期选举后特朗普的对华政策是否会发生根本性转变?
  • 欧洲如何在美中制度之争中减少经济损失?

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This article was originally published by 德国之声.

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