Cycling tourists instead of company cars - it is still quiet in front of the Reichstag building in Berlin. But that will soon change: the first week of meetings after the summer break begins in the second week of September.
A dense political autumn awaits the MPs. The election in Saxony-Anhalt could cause disillusionment - one day before the end of the parliamentary summer break.
In the most recent surveys, the AfD is clearly ahead. If the party classified as right-wing extremist in the state wins the election on September 6th. win, this will also have consequences for the federal government. Chancellor Friedrich Merz came into office with the intention of halving the AfD's poll numbers. But the party is currently achieving record results. An election victory would also be a personal defeat for Merz.
If the SPD were to be thrown out of the state parliament in the election in the eastern German state, it would endanger the stability of the entire government coalition in Berlin. In addition to unrest and growing pressure for reform, the majority situation in the Federal Council could also become more difficult. What is crucial is the influence the AfD gains on future state governments.
In addition, elections will also take place in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin in September. The AfD is also ahead in the northern German state, and in Berlin the CDU is threatening to lose power. This means that the debate about the “firewall” between the CDU/CSU and the AfD is likely to flare up again.
Unrest after cabinet reshuffle
There was no calm within the Union during the summer break either. The controversial cabinet restructuring has not yet been completely completed - and leaves open personnel details. It is unclear, for example, the successor to Minister of State for Sports Christiane Schenderlein and Steffen Bilger as First Parliamentary Managing Director. The position of CDU treasurer is also vacant following Franziska Hoppermann's move to the general secretariat.
Grumbling in the SPD
The Social Democrats are starting the fall with their own internal conflicts. The Spiegel spoke of “trends that threaten the existence of the federal government”. The migration and diversity working group in the SPD is even calling for a special party conference in the fall to reorganize the party leadership, the magazine reports.
The focus is particularly on SPD leader Lars Klingbeil: As Vice Chancellor and Finance Minister, he has to hold the government together and keep an eye on the financial scope. At an SPD event in Haßloch, Rhineland-Palatinate over the weekend, Klingbeil demanded a willingness to compromise from the comrades: It's not about special party conferences. "It's about the question that we will all have to answer in five or ten years: What were we actually doing back when the right-wing extremists wanted to take power in Germany?"
Klingbeil argued: "We have to make compromises, dear people." It is important to fight hard when it comes to health, pensions and taxes, for example. “Sticking to the status quo is not an option,” emphasized the SPD leader.
He and Labor Minister Bärbel Bas are accused by some Social Democrats of giving in too often to the demands of their coalition partner and weakening the profile of their own party.
Pension Commission proposals are met with resistance
The federal government has several major draft laws in front of it. One of them is pension reform. The coalition actually agreed to fully implement the Pension Commission's recommendations as a "total work of art".
Criticism comes from both camps: Several CDU prime ministers such as Michael Kretschmer, Sven Schulze and Mario Voigt are questioning the planned abolition of the pension without deductions after 45 years of contributions (the so-called pension at 63). The SPD heads of government Anke Rehlinger and Andreas Bovenschulte also criticize the step. Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania's Prime Minister Manuela Schwesig rejected the move from the start.
The critics point to questions of justice and that East German employment histories are not sufficiently taken into account. Proponents, in turn, warn that without the reform the success of the entire pension package would be at risk.
Debate about pension reform is more than “just noise”
The debate is more than just "noise before the state elections in the fall," says political scientist Wolfgang Schroeder in an interview with the ARD capital studio. However, it is the normal process for commissions to only make suggestions. "The proposals can be very coherent and good, but that doesn't mean they are law. What we will now experience in the fall is a hard struggle for a compromise."
Even if the Prime Minister cannot block the pension reform in the Federal Council, there are still difficult negotiation processes on the subject of pensions ahead.
Further conflicts regarding tax and care reform
In view of the expected billion-dollar deficit, the care reform is under time pressure. But the current draft is causing criticism even from the Chancellor. In the future, caring relatives should be able to have fewer pension points credited towards their care. The CSU also rejects this.
The coalition is also under deadline pressure when it comes to income tax, as it is due to apply from 2027. The cabinet has fundamentally agreed on relief for low and middle incomes. The Union and SPD announced that the relief volume should be around ten billion euros annually.
A bill shows that citizens will be relieved of around three billion in 2027 in a first step, with another around seven billion to follow in 2028. Politicians also criticize that the relief in the coming year will be significantly less than promised. The Ministry of Finance, however, counters that the coalition agreement will be strictly adhered to: "The relief for citizens will total around 10 billion euros in 2028 compared to 2026."
Fight for every euro
The focus of the first week of the meeting is traditionally on the budget for the coming year. Finance Minister Klingbeil's draft envisages a record new debt of 118.7 billion euros for 2027. With the loan-financed special funds for the Bundeswehr as well as for infrastructure and climate neutrality, it even amounts to a good 200 billion euros.
In view of planned cuts, for example in parental and housing benefits, in advance maintenance payments and in the climate fund, the fight for every euro is likely to be even harder than usual in the budget discussions.
And even beyond the 2027 budget, the financial leeway remains limited. According to the cabinet proposal, there will already be a shortfall of 22 billion euros in 2028, around 38 billion euros in 2029 and even 47 billion euros in 2030.
