According to the IEA, diesel will remain in short supply until 2027

According to estimates by the International Energy Agency (IEA), diesel will remain a scarce commodity well into next year. The reasons for this include delivery failures from the Middle East and declining exports from Russia and parts of Asia. Higher exports from the USA and China have not recently compensated for this, writes the IEA in its oil market report.

Not only does production remain limited, stocks have also shrunk unusually before winter. In addition, tensions on the crude oil freight market have increased. According to the IEA, the prices for diesel delivered in the most important import markets – Europe, Africa and Latin America – could rise again in the coming weeks.

In September, exports from the Middle East and Russia fell by a combined 1.3 million barrels per day, according to the agency. Refiners' profit margins on diesel rose to a record high of nearly $95 a barrel in the same month. In order to curb prices, the G7 countries want, among other things, to release a total of 100 million barrels of oil and diesel from strategic reserves.

US President Donald Trump recently announced that Russia would provide diesel for the global market. His government then temporarily suspended sanctions against Russian fuel shipments.

According to the IEA, this is unlikely to change the situation on the global oil market: The reason why Russia exports so little diesel is rather a lack of refinery capacity due to drone attacks in Ukraine, according to the agency.