Djibouti found itself under the weight of an influx of thousands fleeing the hell of conflicts amid escalating crises in neighboring countries, especially in Ethiopia and Yemen.
Djibouti is located in East Africa on the western shore of the Bab al-Mandab Strait. It is bordered by Eritrea to the north, Ethiopia to the west and south, and Somalia to the southeast, while it overlooks the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden to the east. On the opposite side, across the Red Sea, is Yemen, whose coast is about 20 kilometers away.
Amid this turbulent environment, an expert in African affairs who spoke to Asharq Al-Awsat believes that Djibouti will face increasing pressures in terms of cost and stability, unless the international community responds to its appeals, expecting it to play a mediation role due to its balanced relations with neighboring countries.
International appeal
The Minister of Foreign Affairs of Djibouti, Abdelkader Omar, revealed that thousands of people fled to his country as a result of the violence in Yemen. This places great pressure on the host communities in the Obock region, as well as on the capacity of the refugee camp known as Markazi, which, according to United Nations estimates, has reached 10,000 people.
In his speech before the United Nations General Assembly in New York, on Saturday evening, Omar said that Djibouti alone cannot meet the growing needs for shelter, food, and basic services, calling on the international community to intensify its support so that his country’s government can adequately respond to this influx.
Fleeing Yemen, which has been witnessing escalating armed confrontations for weeks, is not the only prominent challenge facing Djibouti. There is also the return of conflict in neighboring Ethiopia, with the “Tigray forces” seizing 3 airports in the region and launching attacks in the Afar and Amhara regions in cooperation with their allies, in the most dangerous escalation since the devastating war that took place between 2020 and 2022 against government forces.
The Chadian political analyst specializing in African affairs, Salih Ishak Issa, believes that Djibouti will remain under the pressure of turmoil in neighboring countries during the next stage, especially with the continuation of the war in Yemen and the increasing tensions in Ethiopia, due to its sensitive geographical location and its direct connection to the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab.
A humanitarian and security burden
Djibouti is dealing with the influx of fleeing people as an increasing humanitarian and security burden, at a time when its economic and infrastructure capabilities remain limited compared to the extent of the risks surrounding it.
Issa says that the importance of Djibouti's strategic location does not necessarily mean that it will automatically receive the level of support it needs to confront the humanitarian, economic and security repercussions of regional crises. He warned that the continuation of these pressures for a long period may raise the cost of stability, especially if the number of people fleeing increases, the conflict expands in Ethiopia, the costs of services and shelter rise, and the repercussions of disruption to trade and navigation in the Red Sea widen.
It is likely that if international and regional support begins at a level commensurate with the scale of these challenges, Djibouti will have a greater ability to maintain its stability and continue to play its pivotal role in the security of the Red Sea and the Horn of Africa.
Mediation is possible
Amid these crises surrounding it, Djibouti, in a Foreign Ministry statement carried by the official news agency on Sunday, called for reducing the escalation in Ethiopia and settling disputes through dialogue.
Issa believes that Djibouti could move to expand its diplomatic presence by playing the role of mediator or facilitator in some of the region's crises, especially as it has experience in communicating with multiple parties and enjoys relatively balanced relations with various regional and international powers.
According to Issa, the Yemeni file seems more susceptible to this move, while the Ethiopian file remains more sensitive. What prompts Djibouti to adopt a gradual approach based on consultation and confidence-building; This reduces its internal crises.
About 30 people suspected of being pirates, who were arrested during the rescue operation of a seized oil tanker, escaped while being taken to prison, amid suspicions that the police had helped them escape, according to what four security sources reported to Agence France-Presse today (Sunday).
Piracy operations off the coast of Somalia have witnessed a noticeable escalation since April, with at least 15 attacks recorded this year, the highest number since 2013, according to the International Maritime Organization of the United Nations.
The oil tanker "Cebu 1", also known as "Sea Mall", was rescued after the marine police intercepted it on Friday, arrested 41 people suspected of being pirates, and took them to the coastal town of Garacad.
This was considered a victory for the authorities of the semi-autonomous state of Puntland, which has been criticized for failing to take action against the pirates who are believed to be protected by the local community.
The escape of 28 pirates while being transported by land from Garakad to the state capital, Garuy, on Friday night, is likely to lead to more criticism.
The four local security sources told Agence France-Presse that the decision to transfer the suspects at night was unusual.
The sources added that the truck they were transporting suffered a tire explosion on the road, and the suspects discovered that its door was unlocked, which allowed them to escape.
The police succeeded in re-arresting only 13 people from the group, including one who was shot dead.
Yemeni government forces intensified their air and artillery strikes against the Houthi group in Taiz Governorate, coinciding with the continuation of confrontations along the western, southern and eastern fronts of the governorate, without recording a major field change in the map of control during the last hours, according to government military and media sources.
On Sunday, government forces fighters targeted Houthi sites, gatherings and reinforcements in various areas of Taiz, while the forces participating in the battles said that they thwarted Houthi infiltration attempts on a number of fronts, while the strikes extended to other sites in Lahj near Bab al-Mandab.
Military and local sources reported that the air strikes targeted Houthi sites and gatherings in the eastern city of Taiz, after the arrival of human and military reinforcements for the group. The raids also targeted - according to the same sources - a Houthi camp and vehicles at the Mawiyah Junction, and sites on the Al-Akbush front in the southeast, as well as a column of reinforcements on 60th Street, north of the city of Taiz.
Government forces had announced that their raids during the past hours targeted a supply convoy on 60th Street in Taiz, reinforcements in the Henna area of the Al-Waziyah District in the west of the governorate, and sites and stores of weapons, ammunition and missiles in the Mawiyah and Al-Dhakra junctions in the east, in addition to a Houthi gathering in the Suwayda area in the Haifan District in the south.
The military sources said that the raids resulted in the destruction of vehicles and deaths and injuries among the Houthis, including field commanders, without providing independent, verifiable figures regarding the extent of the losses.
In parallel with military aviation, government forces used drones to target Houthi hideouts, vehicles, and gatherings on a number of battle fronts, an indication of the intensification of the use of air strikes to confront the group’s military movements and reinforcements.
Infiltration attempts
On the ground, the Taiz Axis Command said that government forces thwarted a Houthi infiltration attempt on the Al-Ahtoub front in the Jabal Habashi District, west of Taiz, and targeted the group’s members as they attempted to approach its positions in the Hathran area.
Government forces also bombed a Houthi vehicle with a mortar shell on the Al-Kadha front, and targeted gatherings of the group on the Al-Aqroud front, southeast of the city.
These developments come at a time when the Taiz, Lahj, and Bab al-Mandab fronts remain on high alert, with attacks and counterattacks continuing around the heights and advanced positions. Especially in the areas of Jabal Numan, Kahboub, Al-Alqama and Rasin.
There were no indications - according to available field data - of new Houthi advances. The confrontations remained concentrated in the front areas and the highlands surrounding Jabal Numan, while Houthi attempts continued to regain parts of the positions they lost in this axis.
In Kahboub, on the road leading to Bab al-Mandab, the Southern Giants forces said that they targeted Houthi gatherings and vehicles, and destroyed an armored vehicle, killing those on board, while confrontations continued on the Al-Waziyah and Mudaraba fronts.
Expansion of the confrontation
The nature of the strikes during the last two days reveals the extension of the confrontation from the front lines to supply sites, gatherings, camps and weapons depots, at a time when Yemeni government forces are trying to limit the Houthis’ ability to push new reinforcements to the Taiz and Lahj fronts.
The targeting areas include the Mawiyah Junction and Al-Dhakra junction east of Taiz, Al-Hawban, and 60th Street in the north of the city, Haifan in the south, and Al-Waziyah in the west, in addition to sites in the neighboring Ibb governorate.
Thus, battles are no longer limited to direct clashes on the heights. Indeed, Houthi supply lines and military movements have become frequent targets of air strikes.
On the other hand, the Houthis continued their attempts to put pressure on a number of fronts. Especially in the western axes, which are gaining importance due to their proximity to the road leading to the coastal areas and Bab al-Mandab. Where they seek to secure their gains.
The intensity of military operations comes in light of indications of an increase in Houthi human losses. The group acknowledged the killing of Majd al-Din Hamid al-Hamzi, who military sources said was head of operations for the 3rd Missile Brigade, along with a number of his companions, after battles on the West Coast fronts.
In the latest indicators of losses, Yemeni monitoring data reported that Houthi media and platforms announced during this September the funeral of 422 members of the group, including officers and military leaders.
The sources that prepared the monitoring indicated that the number does not represent the total actual losses, due to the Houthis not regularly announcing all of their dead, in addition to the delay in the funeral or burial of some of the dead away from media coverage, and the failure to include bodies found in hospitals or combat areas in the monitoring lists.
In one day (last Friday), sources spoke of the funeral of 60 of the group’s dead on various fronts, at a time when losses were particularly concentrated on the Taiz and Lahj fronts, according to local reports.
These battles were accompanied by reports of the bodies of fighters remaining in some combat areas, amid local appeals to the Red Cross and Red Crescent to intervene and recover them, for fear of humanitarian and environmental repercussions.
