A former Egyptian minister warns of ongoing Ethiopian attempts to control the waters of the Blue Nile

Allam said, “Ethiopia’s story with Egypt is long,” noting that attempts to obstruct the flow of Blue Nile waters to Egypt, according to his vision, are not new, but go back decades and are renewed in different forms.

The former Egyptian minister explained that the first modern studies based on the cadastral survey of the Blue Nile Basin were conducted by the American Bureau of Land Reclamation during the 1960s, considering that the study came in the context of a political conflict with Egypt and the High Dam project during the era of the late President Gamal Abdel Nasser.

He added that the study, which was officially published at that time, included a vision for establishing a number of major dams and small facilities on the Blue Nile, with two main goals, the first of which was to transfer part of the water reserves associated with the High Dam to the Ethiopian Plateau, which would weaken the role of the High Dam and give Ethiopia greater ability to control the waters of the Blue Nile.

The second goal, according to Allam, was related to generating electricity through these dams, to meet Ethiopia’s internal needs and provide the possibility of exporting electricity to neighboring countries.

He pointed out that the first dam mentioned in the American plan was the dam currently known as the “Renaissance Dam,” which in the old plan was called the “Border Dam,” due to its location close to the Ethiopian-Sudanese border, pointing out that its proposed capacity at that time was much less than the current capacity.

According to Allam, the other three dams that Ethiopia announced in recent years also have their roots in the perceptions contained in the plan of the 1960s, but the capacities that are currently being talked about exceed what was proposed in the old plan.

According to the former minister, attempts to pass these projects did not stop at the stage of old studies, as he said that Ethiopia tried to obtain the approval of Egypt and Sudan to establish these dams during the period of the Nile Basin Initiative by assigning an international consulting company to prepare preliminary feasibility studies that dealt with the capacities of the dams, the method of their operation, and the potential effects on the two downstream countries.

He explained that a copy of these studies was presented to Egypt and Sudan in 2010, and that a team of Egyptian experts studied them and prepared numerical models to evaluate the impact of the proposed projects on Egypt.

Allam said that the results of the Egyptian assessment concluded that the potential effects of these dams were “destructive to Egyptian water security and the High Dam project,” which prompted Cairo to officially reject the projects.

He added that Egypt sent its rejectionist position to Ethiopia and the Nile Basin Initiative, and also sent a copy of the Egyptian study to international donors, with the aim of preventing the financing of any of these projects.

Allam's statements come at a time when the Renaissance Dam file still represents one of the most sensitive water files between Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan, in light of the ongoing disputes regarding the rules for filling and operating the dam and its potential effects on the two downstream countries.

Allam believes that the current scene represents an extension of previous attempts to reshape the system of control of the Blue Nile’s waters, accusing Israel and the United States of supporting Ethiopian moves, and considering that Addis Ababa’s announcement of new dam projects is taking place without sufficient consideration, from his point of view, of the water rights of Egypt and Sudan.

The former minister also warned that the dispute over the Nile waters might go beyond the water dimension to broader political and security dimensions, accusing parties he did not name of seeking to “stir up unrest” within Egypt and the region, and linking this to attempts that he said aimed to repeat the scenario of the events of January 2011.

The issue of the Blue Nile and the Renaissance Dam remains at the heart of Egyptian national security, as Egypt relies mainly on the waters of the Nile to meet its water needs, while Ethiopia adheres to its right to exploit its water resources, generate electricity, and develop, which has made reaching binding understandings regarding operating the dam and managing periods of extended drought one of the most prominent controversial files between the two countries.