In the past 10 years, the total population of the country has decreased by approximately 240,700 people, but the number of people under the age of 64 has lost as much as 1,807,700 people. On the other hand, the number of people over the age of 65 has increased by approximately 1,567,000 people, indicating that the top-heavy population pyramid pattern has become quite obvious. (Photo by reporter Xu Yiping)
[Reporter Xu Yiping/Taipei Report] In the past 10 years, the total population of the country has decreased by approximately 240,700 people, but the number of people under the age of 64 has lost as much as 1.8077 million people. On the other hand, the number of people over the age of 65 has increased by approximately 1.567 million people, showing that the top-heavy population pyramid pattern has become quite obvious. As Taiwan ages at an accelerated pace, the liquidity of large-square-foot residential properties will freeze in the future. Those most affected, such as suburban areas, remote rezoning areas, old apartments, and large-square-foot residences, especially under loan restrictions, will fall into the quadruple dilemma of "cannot sell, cannot rent, cannot live in, and cannot afford to repair."
He Shichang, CEO of Xinchuan Real Estate Think Tank, pointed out that the continued rise in the elderly support ratio means that the social and economic burdens of elderly people’s pensions are increasingly shared by young and middle-aged groups. When policies maintain or increase benefits for the elderly, more government resources will be used. The most obvious problems often appear in health insurance and labor insurance; if the old-age support ratio continues to rise in the future, labor and health insurance reform will have to be faced, and those who bear more costs and enjoy the least benefits are often the young and middle-aged groups.
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According to the Department of Household Affairs of the Ministry of Interior, the national population in 2025 will be approximately 23.2991 million people, a decrease of approximately 240,700 people compared to 23.5398 million people in 2016. However, at the same time point, the number of people under the age of 64 has increased from 20.4337 million in 2016. It will decrease to 18.626 million people in 2025, a decrease of 1.8077 million people in 10 years. On the other hand, the number of people over 65 years old will increase from 3.1061 million people in 2016 to 4.6732 million people in 2025, an increase of 1.567 million people in 10 years. In particular, the ratio of supporting young children decreased by 1.35 in 10 years, while the ratio of supporting old people increased by 11.35 in 2010.
Zeng Jingde, project manager of Xinyi Housing Real Estate Enterprise Research Office, said that Taiwan has entered a super-aged population era, and the number of elderly people has increased rapidly, which has also brought about many conditions and structural changes. Related to real estate is inheritance and the transfer of assets from generation to generation. The population forecast released by the government can also be found. This trend is difficult to reverse and has signs of intensification.
Real estate industry players believe that the most direct impact of the trend of losing young people and increasing old people is the sharp decline in the labor force population, which will inevitably lead to rising wages. This will be followed by changes in housing demand, which will then evolve into the current situation of "small housing".
Huang Shuwei, director of Colliers International Real Estate Owner Representative Services Department, said that the population pyramid is in the shape of an inverted triangle, which directly disrupts the driving force behind the price and volume growth of the housing market that relied on demographic dividends and inflation in the past thousands of years. At a time when the total demand is shrinking, if public resources and corporate investment are not in place, the chances of turning over will be low, and it will be difficult to avoid the high ratio of empty houses and abandoned houses.
Therefore, it can be further inferred that the two-way trend of frozen large-square-meter housing liquidity and preference for small elevator houses and silver-haired houses will gradually be amplified. Those most affected, such as suburban areas, remote rezonings, old apartments, large-square-foot residences, etc., especially under loan restrictions, will fall into the quadruple dilemma of "cannot sell, cannot rent, cannot live in, cannot afford to repair" and become "negative" financial assets for families in the future.
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