The rise of General Roberto Vannacci and his new party shakes Italian politics

The retired Italian general Roberto Vannacci, 57, who burst into public life in 2023 with a book titled The World Upside Down, a best-seller full of racist, sexist and homophobic slogans, has ceased to be an emerging exotic element: he has already emerged. In February he stood up to the League, which signed him in 2024 for the European elections in the hope of assimilating him, and founded his own party, Futuro Nacional (FN). It already had eight deputies who turned away from government parties - they call themselves “futurists”, one of many nods to the 1920s. In June it held its first congress and in recent weeks it has published a long program in two installments that have been its last fireworks and have caused a great stir. His model of society is something he calls “Mediterranean patriarchy”, which he explains as follows: “It is aimed at emphasizing specificities and the formation of strong men, capable of dominating emotions and passions, protecting women and offering themselves for the construction and defense of society.”

It is the cover letter for other controversial proposals. For example, prohibiting the presence of gays and LGTBI people on television (between six in the morning and eleven at night), to keep minors away from “gender and homosexual” content; eliminate the crime of femicide and also civil unions; a 22-point “remigration” plan, in which a foreigner will be expelled when their employment contract ends, they do not have access to any social assistance and the doctors who examine immigrants will be military, because they are not subject “to ideological suggestions contrary to repatriations.” Abortion is not considered a right; the morning after pill will not be prescribed in the outpatient clinic; proposes that each child entitle their parents to an equal number of ballots in elections. The age of criminal accusation of a minor would drop from 14 to 12 years. It intends to review the current regulations on torture because “it presents interpretive ambiguities that generate uncertainty and risk of operational paralysis for personnel who act in contexts of urgency and danger.”

All with declared nostalgic, military rhetoric and with echoes of the fascist regime ("ardor, virtue and sacrifice"), claiming "an identity-based right, pure and vital, rooted in the Roman and Christian tradition, determined to return Italy to its roots (...), which puts the natural family, identity, security, merit and tradition at the center." Vannacci, former commander of the elite Italian parachute unit and veteran of Iraq and Afghanistan, dreams of a militarized society, with “military education in schools and an expansion of the role of the armed forces in the territory.” In higher schools, “defense and national security education” courses, and also military training camps to attract “the best young people with the appropriate character” to the Army.

The program proposes that citizenship be obtained only after 20 years of residence, an Italian exam and signing “a declaration of assimilation into Greek, Roman and Christian civilization.” In entry permits to the country, preference will be given to those who come from countries "with a Christian majority, whose data show a low inclination towards crime." The reason is that these foreigners “do not undermine the cultural unity of our country, which today is threatened by a mass Mohammedan invasion” (in reality the Muslim population in Italy is 4%). In a dig at Giorgia Meloni, he proposes dialogue with the United States “in an upright position.”

With all this, the polls already place FN with a minimum of 8% of the votes, and up to 12%, above the League (4.4%) and Forza Italia (7.1%), Meloni's two coalition partners. That is, it would be the second party on the right. This Friday, the far-right leader celebrated the record duration of her Government, but there are nerves in her coalition and she is constantly looking at Vannacci in the rearview mirror. It is already one of its main problems.

“Russian Trojan Horse in Italy”

The retired general is beginning to be the object of special attention. The Financial Times has defined him this week as “Russia's Trojan horse in Italy”, recalling that he was military attaché at the Italian Embassy in Moscow from 2020 to 2022, opposes the shipment of weapons to Ukraine and is committed to reestablishing relations with Vladimir Putin. The truth is that in his program he mentions Russia up to 13 times, more than pensions (seven) or salaries (three).

On the other hand, a military union has recently filed two complaints against FN, which are being examined by two different prosecutors' offices. One is that of Rome, for an alleged attempt to recompose the fascist party, a crime established by a law of 1952, but difficult to apply and used on rare occasions. The second, in the military jurisdiction, due to the presence of active members of the army among its leaders, although FN's lawyers assure that there is no incompatibility and if anything it is a disciplinary issue. Vannacci uses all of this to show that the system is turning against him because it is afraid of him. He made a video wearing a Russian hat and toasting with vodka.

Until now, Meloni thought he had him under control by simply trying from time to time to say things that were more extreme right-wing than him. She and especially the leader of the League, Matteo Salvini, who sees a real danger of being reduced to nothing, have tried these months to compete with the former general in high-sounding statements and approving impact measures on security and immigration. But it's hard to top Vannacci in outbursts. He is in the opposition and is not afraid to use Mussolini's slogans and even the glorious past of the Roman Empire. When the League presented him to the 2024 European elections, not without internal tensions, he was able to verify his potential, since there were open lists and each candidate was voted on: he alone obtained 555,980 votes. Now their new party is eating up the League.

Vannacci's main effect has been to disrupt the electoral calculations for the next elections, scheduled for April or May 2027, if they are brought forward as is likely, or in the fall if the legislature runs out. Meloni was already preparing a change in the electoral system, which began processing in the summer, to avoid defeat or a tie. The current one, which gave him victory in 2022 because he rewarded coalitions and the left was divided, no longer guarantees him victory. But Vannacci's rise has to make us fear that his numbers will no longer work out. She doesn't know what could be better: fighting him, with the problem of having to distance herself from the extreme right-wing world from which she comes, or incorporating him into her coalition, with the danger of having him inside. But there is a third option that is being explored these days, neutralizing it in the design of the new electoral system.

The idea of ​​a final amendment is to establish a double-shift system for the two coalitions with the most votes, which would leave out FN, and with the advantage that its followers would converge on Meloni in the second round. But the risk is that for that very reason, in the first vote, it will monopolize a large number of votes punishing the Government and the gap it opens on the right will be even greater.

Vannacci has proven himself skilled in social media and in making Trump-style videos with artificial intelligence: in one released in July he appeared as a Roman emperor in the Colosseum, condemning opposition leaders to death, bound in the sand. He sells himself as a new politician, something that in Italian politics, which burns acronyms and candidates, has always worked. He brags about being strong, he has spent the summer appearing in a swimsuit and T-shirt saying that he swims three nautical miles.

While Meloni does everything possible to distance himself from his past as a militant in post-fascism and to please his most radical audience, he sometimes says things with a small mouth, Vannacci speaks without complexes, with continuous slogans from the fascist past and provocative winks. For example, he plays with the symbol of the Although he later denied that it was that: he claimed that it is also the symbol of Crete and he bought it as a souvenir on the Greek island.