The end of the Lula era in Brazil, or rather its last chapter? The Brazilian leader, who narrowly beat outgoing far-right president Jair Bolsonaro in the fall of 2022, returns to the running for the supreme office on Sunday October 4, in the first round of the presidential election. At almost 81 years old, he faces the son of his predecessor, Flavio Bolsonaro, and 11 other much less favorite contenders. “I don’t see how we could lose this election,” the head of state recently said, according to The Guardian. The outcome of the vote, however, promises to be close.
The first president from the working world, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva received around 40% of voting intentions in the first round at the end of September, according to a Datafolha poll. His main opponent, far-right senator Flavio Bolsonaro, came slightly behind at 36%. In the event of a second round between them, on October 25, the gap narrows: Lula receives 47% of voting intentions, compared to 45% for his Bolsonarist opponent, according to this same study.
Franceinfo returns to the challenges of this presidential election, which is accompanied by a major parliamentary vote. On Sunday, Brazilian voters will also choose their deputies, as well as a majority of senators.
A new standoff between the left and the Bolsonaro clan
Lula is seeking to win a fourth term, after leading the country from 2003 to 2011 and then since 2023. The co-founder of the Workers' Party (PT), a former metalworker born in poverty, experienced a real political resurrection in 2022, shortly after 19 months of incarceration. “In 2022, he had three major objectives: restoring democracy, rebuilding Brazil's image on the international scene and relaunching economic activity” after the Bolsonaro presidency, explains Frédéric Louault, specialist in Brazil and professor of political science at the Free University of Brussels (ULB).
"Lula hopes to continue the strategy of rebuilding Brazil. His main project is also to avoid the return of Bolsonarism."
Frédéric Louault, Brazil specialist
at franceinfo
“Flavio Bolsonaro wants to put the Workers' Party back out,” continues the researcher associated with the Center for International Research (Ceri) at Sciences Po. At 45, the senator from Rio de Janeiro since 2019 takes up the torch from his father, sentenced to 27 years in prison for attempted coup d'état. A “more moderate Bolsonaro”, as he likes to define himself? “It’s a watered-down version of his father,” observes Frédéric Louault. "On certain aspects, notably communication, he is a little more moderate. But he intends to continue his father's political project." The researcher anticipates possible amnesties for the former president and the rioters of the assault on places of power in Brasilia, the capital, on January 8, 2023, in the event of victory for Bolsonaro's son. “He is trying to stick to the image of his father to recover the enthusiasm, the enthusiasm aroused by Jair Bolsonaro within part of the electorate,” adds Armelle Enders, historian specializing in Brazil at Paris 8 University.
Favorites in the polls, Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro nevertheless come up against “a ceiling” in voting intentions, notes Frédéric Louault. They are among the politicians "most rejected" by voters, underlines the latest opinion study from Datafolha. Nearly half of those surveyed (45%) promise never to vote for Lula, and as many voters reject any vote in favor of Flavio Bolsonaro.
“It’s an election by default. We will vote against rather than for.”
Frédéric Louault, professor of political science specializing in Brazil
at franceinfo
Eleven candidates remain in the running behind this duel in the lead, but they are struggling to break through. Renan Santos, nicknamed the "Brazilian Javier Milei", named after the Argentine leader, captured barely more than 5% of voting intentions, according to Courrier international.
Fears of greater American influence
If Bolsonarism wins in Brazil, this Sunday or the evening of October 25, Latin America will confirm its turn towards the right and the extreme right. Argentina with Javier Milei, Chile with José Antonio Kast, Colombia with Abelardo de la Espriella... The ultraconservative and far-right movements have gained vast ground in the region, under the satisfied eye of Donald Trump. “A victory for Flavio Bolsonaro would give the Trump administration a new South American government that is favorable to it, in addition to the growing list of leaders aligned with the White House,” says Christopher Sabatini, director of the Latin America program at the Chatham House research center. Even more so if Bolsonaro's Liberal Party (PL), after Sunday, remains in the lead in the Chamber of Deputies.
“If Lula wins, it will be by a narrow margin like in 2022. There will be American pressure. Will the American government recognize this victory?”
Armelle Enders, historian specializing in Brazil
at franceinfo
The specter of attempted American interference has also become a key subject of the campaign, reports Le Monde. “Let’s not let the Americans try to influence our elections,” the president-candidate recently said at a meeting.
The Trump administration, notes the New York Times, denies any plans to interfere in the vote. The Brazilian authorities, however, refused the arrival of American officials this summer, according to the daily. They feared a challenge to the electoral system in Brazil, although it is widely recognized. The State Department rejects these concerns, but confirms a planned visit around "electoral integrity, freedom of religion and expression." “There are well-founded concerns, and Brazilians are very sensitive to their sovereignty,” explains Frédéric Louault.
A campaign polluted by scandals
Beyond fears of interference, the cost of living and security issues, a series of scandals punctuated the campaign. During September, Brazilian voters and media learned that a corruption investigation was targeting Flavio Bolsonaro, in connection with the "financing of the production" of Dark Horse, a biographical film about his father. The senator agreed in the spring that he had requested and received several million euros from banker Daniel Vorcaro for this biopic, as part of “private financing”. However, this businessman arrested last year is at the heart of a huge financial scandal.
The case involving Daniel Vorcaro, in its scope, also affects the Supreme Court. One of its judges, André Mendonça, made public revelations about messages from Daniel Vorcaro to a number attributed to Alexandre de Moraes, another judge of the institution. In these exchanges, the banker asks the magistrate for help, obviously regarding the investigation targeting him. Alexandre de Moraes, who was rapporteur for the trial of Jair Bolsonaro, is the bête noire of the Bolsonarist camp. “The Bolsonarists identify Alexandre de Moraes with Lula’s government,” explains Armelle Enders.
"This scandal risks reinforcing polarization. It could be a pretext to return to old reflexes. The Bolsonarists will say that corruption is Lula, and in the other camp, they will say that corruption is Bolsonaro."
Armelle Enders, historian specializing in Brazil
at franceinfo
In the midst of the Supreme Court crisis, the senatorial elections on Sunday will also be closely followed. In Brazil, senators have the power to approve the appointment of its judges.
A decisive vote on the environment
The climate will not have been at the heart of the debates in this campaign, far from it. The outcome of the vote will, however, have its effects on the environment in Brazil, particularly on the fight against deforestation. Between Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro, two polar opposite visions clash on these subjects.
The former worker can rely on the decline in deforestation over the last four years. According to Carbon Brief, at least 20,000 km2 have been saved since 2022 in the Brazilian Amazon, after several years of increase under Jair Bolsonaro. Lula nevertheless supports oil exploration in the Amazon mouth basin, as noted by Le Monde.
