
Secours catholique publishes its annual report on poverty a few months before the presidential election, while Christine Lagarde is tested for the first time in voting intentions.
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Secours catholique publishes its annual report on poverty a few months before the presidential election. The association supported a million people in 2025. At the same time, several surveys are testing candidacy scenarios for the presidential election, notably Christine Lagarde, Édouard Philippe, Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon.
More than eight out of ten French people consider social minimums essential, but almost two thirds think that solidarity should be reserved for the “most deserving”, according to an OpinionWay survey presented Thursday by Secours catholique in its annual report on poverty. A few months before the presidential election, the association wanted to confront the French view of poverty with the realities experienced by the million people it supported in 2025.
Among Catholic Relief beneficiaries, nearly 95% lived below the poverty line last year (60% of the median income, or 1,350 euros for a single person in 2025), or +3.2 points compared to 2015. Three quarters lived below the extreme poverty line (40% of the median income, or 899 euros in 2025), or +10.6 points. 27.3% do not even have any resources, up 60% since 2015.
Their median income has fallen by more than 100 euros over the last ten years: it stood at 568 euros per month in 2025, compared to 670 euros in 2015, according to its annual report. A large majority of respondents paint a picture similar to the findings of Secours catholique, estimating that poverty has increased over the past ten years (80%), but their view of social assistance appears “ambivalent”, notes the report.
If 82% consider social minimums essential and 63% believe that they do not allow them to live with dignity, 63% also think that they “discourage people from working” and 81% consider them to be “poorly distributed”. Thus, 63% believe that “society should only show solidarity with the most deserving people”, notes the association, which highlights the absence of a precise definition of this “merit”.
Christine Lagarde, who will leave the presidency of the European Central Bank (ECB), collects 14% of voting intentions and thus overtakes Édouard Philippe if she enters the race for the Élysée, according to a poll published Wednesday. The resigning president of the ECB, who will leave office at the beginning of February, had until now never been tested by a polling institute.
In a scenario where she replaced Horizons candidate Édouard Philippe, she would receive 14% of voting intentions against the same opponents, compared to 13.5% for the mayor of Le Havre, according to a Cluster 17 poll for Politico. “It is rather well received by central voters,” notes Jean-Yves Dormagen, president of the Cluster 17 institute. But “all this confirms the very strong liquidity of the central space,” he adds.
In this hypothesis, Jean-Luc Mélenchon exceeds 20% for the first time (20.5%), still far behind Marine Le Pen (30.5%). At the end of September, Christine Lagarde assured in an interview with the newspaper La Croix that a presidential candidacy would “not be a good idea at all”. “First there is a question of vitality, energy, strength. There is also a sense of inevitable sacrifice in this type of commitment. And I'm 70 years old..."
Project yourself into a presidential stature. On the occasion of November 11, the two candidates given the lead in voting intentions for the presidential election in all polls, Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon, participated in the Armistice commemorations.
The day was heavy with symbols. Emmanuel Macron rekindled the flame for the last time as President of the Republic under the Arc de Triomphe in Paris. Marine Le Pen went to her stronghold of Pas-de-Calais, in Hénin-Beaumont, while Jean-Luc Mélenchon was in the Creuse in Gentioux-Pigerolles. The two candidates for the Élysée spoke in mirror images, one paying tribute to the patriots who died for France, the other pleading for pacifism.
Also read Le Pen in Hénin-Beaumont, Mélenchon in Creuse: the remote match against a backdrop of commemorations
To move forward, the campaign directors of Gabriel Attal, Bruno Retailleau and David Lisnard will meet on November 17, the entourage of the Renaissance candidate announced on Wednesday evening. With a seat for Édouard Philippe if he changes his mind.
“I know that Édouard Philippe has the interests of France at heart. I do not imagine that he will defend a candidacy outside of a process of assembly,” commented Gabriel Attal in an interview with Sud-Ouest, also insisting that a primary “is necessary” to avoid a Mélenchon-Le Pen second round. This is “the only way to achieve a rally, since all the candidates (from the right and the center, Editor's note) are between 5 and 10% in the polls,” he insisted.
The president of the Republicans, Bruno Retailleau, wrote on Tuesday to Édouard Philippe (Horizons), Gabriel Attal (Renaissance) and David Lisnard (Nouvelle Énergie) to propose the organization of a right and center primary on January 31 and February 7. “None of us is today in a position, alone, to create a dynamic to convince the French in the first round and to prevent a brutal clash between the National Rally and France Insoumise,” writes the former Minister of the Interior, rallied to the idea of organizing a primary, to which only Édouard Philippe, among the four contenders, is opposed.
“Time is against us. Because, the more the campaign advances, the more Jean-Luc Mélenchon's influence strengthens and with it the chaos that would threaten our country if he reached the second round,” he says with alarm. “Denial is therefore no longer possible” and “we must act quickly”, he insists, proposing that this primary take place “as soon as possible”, that is, according to him, on Sundays January 31 and February 7.
Watch the video “A primary in January under the leadership of Gérard Larcher”: Hervé Morin calls on the candidates from the right and the center to come together
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
A right and center primary will be organized on January 31 and February 7 if Édouard Philippe changes his mind.
Possible · Within weeks
Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon will remain at the top of voting intentions for the presidential election.
Likely · Within months

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