EU to face worst winter gas shortage in 15 years — Politico

BRUSSELS, October 9. /TASS/. European Union countries are bracing for their most severe winter gas shortfall in 15 years, the European edition of Politico reported.

The shortage is projected to reach up to 14 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas, representing roughly 7% of the bloc's total demand - an amount equivalent to the energy consumption of 10 to 12 million European households.

EU gas reserves have dwindled to their lowest levels for this time of year since record-keeping began in 2011. Concurrently, a report by the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) notes that European gas prices have surged to four-year highs.

The tightening crunch will force European nations to buy gas at high prices on increasingly volatile global markets or require consumers to curb energy demand. According to an IEEFA expert, even if the EU avoids depleting its storage entirely this winter, it will face a massive and costlier refilling challenge next year, locking the bloc into a vicious cycle of low inventories and elevated prices.

Analysts attribute the crisis to mounting tensions in the Middle East and the EU's impending ban on long-term contracts for Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG). While US LNG exports offer an alternative, the cost of these shipments has jumped 12% compared to last year.

Under European Commission regulations, EU member states must fill their gas storage to 90% between October 1 and December 1 annually. However, a 10% flexibility margin is allowed under adverse market conditions. Consequently, net injections into European storage must hit at least 68 bcm to meet the target for the 2026-2027 winter season. Nevertheless, hoping for a mild winter, Brussels is prepared to lower the mandatory storage threshold to 80% for the current year.