
Iran announced the expansion of the “prohibited zone” for ship movement outside the Strait of Hormuz to include parts of the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea, threatening punitive measures against uncoordinated ships, while it continues to build underground facilities in “Jabal Ax” near Natanz, which Western countries suspect are linked to the nuclear program, amid warnings from the International Atomic Energy Agency about a lack of information and fears of nuclear proliferation, American moves to strike the site, and Western calls to refer the nuclear file to the Security Council.
AI-generated summary
These developments come after an interim agreement between Iran and Oman in August 2024 to resume safe navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, establish a joint temporary shipping lane, and clear the strait of mines, with negotiations continuing for permanent arrangements, while Iran faces American and international pressure due to its nuclear program and its lack of full cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency.
On Wednesday, Iran expanded the scope of the “prohibited zone” that it intends to impose on the movement of ships outside the Strait of Hormuz, to include parts of the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea, threatening punitive measures against ships that enter it without coordination with Tehran.
The spokesman for the Revolutionary Guard, Hussein Mohebi, said that the area begins approximately from the Chabahar side, and extends across part of the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea along the path leading to the Strait of Hormuz, adding that the exact coordinates of the path will be announced later.
He explained that any ship entering this zone without coordination will be subject to punitive measures, and may later be prevented from using the Strait of Hormuz, or from obtaining services related to navigation, including insurance.
Mohebi said that the Strait of Hormuz was until now “the main area of engagement” with military or commercial ships trying to enter or exit without coordination with Iran, but the scope designated by Tehran “has become broader.”
He added that Hormuz has become a “standard for military action” against ships that cross without permission, while the “punitive path” extends to parts of the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea.
Siege line
On Sunday, Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, Mohsen Rezaei, laid out the first framework of the plan, saying that Tehran would declare a new "forbidden zone" extending from the American blockade line to loading ports and areas in the Arabian Gulf.
Rezaei said that any ship moving towards Hormuz without coordination with Iran will be included in the “Iranian sanctions list,” explaining that the measures may include the details of the ship, its owner, and its charterer, and will later affect insurance and its movement.
He added that Tehran no longer views the Strait of Hormuz alone as an arena for confrontation with the blockade, but rather intends to transfer pressure to a broader scope between the blockade lines, ports, and navigation routes leading to the strait.
On Tuesday, Rezaei returned to saying that Iran had conducted a “fundamental review” of its operational approach towards American ships and bases, and that the “economic war” would be confronted by the establishment of a “prohibited maritime zone” extending to the scope of the American blockade.
The Deputy Commander-in-Chief of the Revolutionary Guards, Mustafa Izdi, said on the same day that the Strait of Hormuz has become the “focus” of Iranian operations in the south of the country, and that the armed forces are monitoring and controlling the corridor “completely.”
Ali Mohammadi, Deputy for Political Affairs in the Revolutionary Guard Navy, also warned ships against using the southern corridor near the Omani coast, saying that the Khasab region represents “the limit of immunity,” and called on ships to use the route determined by Iran.
Omani path
Tehran's expansion of the scope of maritime restrictions comes after Iran and the Sultanate of Oman reached, on August 25, a phased framework for resuming safe navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, which includes establishing a joint temporary shipping lane and a project to clear the strait of mines.
The two sides agreed to continue negotiations to reach a permanent corridor and future arrangements for managing the strait, in addition to a mechanism for exchanging information, managing navigation traffic, and providing navigational and security services.
Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi separated these technical understandings from the full reopening of the Strait, linking the reopening to stopping military operations, lifting the American blockade on Iranian ports, and allowing the resumption of oil exports.
The agreement was preceded by weeks of technical negotiations. On August 15, Tehran announced an agreement with Muscat on a map of the transit route for ships, before the joint statement later determined the interim framework for the temporary corridor and negotiations on permanent arrangements.
The Iranian “Jabal Ax” site, close to the Natanz nuclear complex, witnessed a significant increase in construction work during the current year, while the United States continues to study ways to target Iranian nuclear facilities buried at great depths underground.
On Wednesday, Agence France-Presse and CNN reported on a new analysis by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), based on satellite images over a period of six years, that the site witnessed a “clear surge in construction activity,” and that the facility located inside a granite mountain was likely designed to protect activities related to the Iranian nuclear program.
The most recent analysis of the images dates back to August 9, and the center’s experts said that road traffic on “Jabal Ax” during 2026 exceeded what was recorded at any time since the site’s construction began.
The works included fortifying tunnel entrances, paving internal roads, and enhancing access areas. Analysts said that continued construction indicates that the site “is not yet capable of carrying out enrichment work,” if that is its purpose.
“Ax Mountain” is located near the Natanz complex, about 220 kilometers south of Tehran, and has been the subject of monitoring by intelligence services that believe it is a potential site to protect future Iranian nuclear activities.
Western intelligence services suspect that Tehran is constructing an undeclared nuclear facility inside “Axe Mountain” that may be used to enrich uranium. The center's experts reported that they were unable to confirm or refute Israeli intelligence information indicating that Iran had transferred centrifuges to the facility.
Experts said that the facility may be used to assemble centrifuges, for enrichment, or to host other work “related to nuclear weapons,” including converting uranium into metal.
American plans to strike
CNN reported, citing an informed source, that the US Army maintains operational plans to strike Jabal Ax. The site was among a package of targets studied earlier this summer, when President Donald Trump threatened to expand attacks on Iran.
The source said that the plan to target the site included the use of some of the largest bombs in the American arsenal, but it is still unclear whether these munitions can penetrate deep enough to destroy what Iran may have transported into the mountain.
The granite that houses the facility represents a challenge even to the heaviest American non-nuclear bombs, according to the center’s experts.
Three informed sources told the network that American plans to test capabilities to strike deep underground facilities were related to the war with Iran, and to the need to develop a way to target its deepest facilities, and perhaps simulate strikes against specific nuclear facilities.
Four days before the start of Operation Epic Fury, a Defense Threat Reduction Agency official signed a $1.2 million emergency contract to repair an underground test facility in White Sands, New Mexico, to conduct live-fire testing of classified capabilities against emerging threats.
Satellite images reviewed by CNN showed the start of excavation work at the site between February 16 and 18, before the outbreak of war on the 28 of the same month. Like Ax Mountain, the American testing facility is located within granite rocks.
It quoted another informed source as saying that parties within the US Department of Defense recently held an “intensive planning round” regarding ways to direct decisive strikes on deep underground facilities.
Trump brought Ax Mountain back to the forefront of the nuclear confrontation last week, when he told reporters that the United States might target the site “very soon.”
Trump added that Washington is monitoring movements inside, saying: “We know everyone who moves” at the site. “If anything bad happens, we hit them,” he said. "We hit them hard."
Grossi: “Serious concern”
The movements in “Axe Mountain” come as the International Atomic Energy Agency says it lacks the information necessary to determine the status of Iranian nuclear facilities and materials, after field verification operations were unable to resume. The International Atomic Energy Agency had asked Tehran for information regarding “Axe Mountain” and to allow it access to the site. The Center for Strategic and International Studies said that Iran did not respond to these requests, according to reports on which its analysis was based.
The IAEA Director General, Rafael Grossi, said on Monday, during the quarterly meeting of the IAEA Board of Governors in Vienna, that the lack of information and the inability of inspectors to access the facilities represent “a serious concern in terms of nuclear proliferation.”
He added that more than a year had passed since the agency lost “continuity of knowledge” about Iran’s previously declared stockpiles of low-enriched uranium and uranium enriched to 60 percent in facilities affected by the June 2025 attacks.
The last thing recorded by the agency before verification operations stopped was 440.9 kilograms of uranium enriched to the level of 60 percent, in addition to 8,599.6 kilograms of less enriched materials.
Grossi said that Tehran had not submitted a report required under the safeguards agreement on changes that may have occurred in nuclear materials after the attacks, and that the agency needed to know the status of stockpiles and access to affected sites.
He explained that Iran informed the agency that it would not cooperate until progress was made on the political track, adding: “There is no engagement, and there is no information.”
He stressed that Iran is still a party to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, and that its obligations under the safeguards agreement do not disappear due to war or political negotiations.
Move towards the Security Council
Grossi was asked at the same press conference about Trump’s threat to strike “Axe Mountain” and the impact of any new attack on the agency’s work, but he declined to comment on American military plans.
He said: “These are national decisions. “I am a diplomat, and I believe in diplomatic solutions,” he said, adding that recent developments showed the need to return to engagement and reach a solution that provides stability and predictability.
He stressed that the “best and shortest path” to a positive outcome is for Iran to return to cooperation with the agency, saying that the issues raised by Tehran regarding access to facilities, security of inspectors, and protection of military information and data can be addressed.
On the other hand, the Iranian mission to international organizations in Vienna said on Wednesday that its delegation informed the agency’s Board of Governors that violations of confidentiality within the agency had previously led to the disclosure of sensitive information that was later used, according to Tehran, to facilitate acts of sabotage against nuclear facilities subject to safeguards.
The mission said that such violations represent a “source of grave concern” and that they must be dealt with, at a time when Tehran clings to its concerns regarding the protection of nuclear and military information.
The developments coincide with a move by the United States, Britain, France, and Germany to issue a resolution by the IAEA’s Board of Governors referring the Iranian nuclear file to the Security Council for the first time in nearly 20 years.
The draft resolution calls on Iran to urgently address its non-compliance with the safeguards agreement, and allow verification operations to ensure that nuclear materials are not diverted, with an emphasis on supporting a diplomatic solution and calling on the parties to engage in negotiations.
In June 2025, the Board of Governors adopted a resolution concluding that Iran had violated its obligations related to safeguards and non-proliferation, due to its failure to fully cooperate with an investigation into traces of uranium found in undeclared sites.
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Ismail Baghaei said on Monday that Tehran would respond if the Board of Governors adopted a new resolution against it, while the Iranian mission in Vienna described the Western effort as a “desperate attempt.”
Representative Ibrahim Rezaei, a member of the National Security and Foreign Policy Committee in the Iranian Parliament, said on Wednesday that Iran’s membership in the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty “did not achieve any benefit,” claiming that it allowed information about sensitive facilities and “scientists” to reach intelligence services.
He added that Tehran would respond to any possible decision of the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency.
Hard-line MP Kamran Ghazanfari said that some representatives have been calling for months to withdraw from the treaty, and that the possibility of returning the project to the parliament’s agenda still exists.
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
Iran will continue to expand the restricted zone and impose punitive measures on uncoordinated vessels over the coming weeks.
Likely · Within weeks
Military and construction activities will continue in Jabal Ax despite international warnings, with the possibility of an increase in the pace of works in the coming months.
Likely · Within months
Diplomatic pressure on Iran from the International Atomic Energy Agency and Western countries will increase, with the possibility of a resolution being issued by the Agency’s Board of Governors referring the file to the Security Council in the coming months.
Possible · Within months

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