US President Donald Trump recently returned to using harsh language again, saying: “If Oman wants to control the Strait of Hormuz in cooperation with Iran, the United States will launch a military strike against this country located at the southern tip of the Arabian Peninsula.”
Fox News correspondent Trey Yingst quoted Trump as saying, during a phone interview on Monday (August 17, 2026), that if “Oman stands in our way, we will bomb them mercilessly.”
Trump's threat came in response to the diplomatic efforts made by Oman, in cooperation with Iran, to reach arrangements regulating navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. For many years, the Sultanate has played the role of mediator between the United States and Iran, and in this context, it seeks to find a diplomatic solution aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz to international shipping traffic.
Shortly before that, Iranian representatives announced that they were close to reaching an agreement with Oman regarding maritime navigation. The basis of these negotiations was the memorandum of understanding signed between the United States and Iran on June 17, which stipulated that Iran would work for sixty days to ensure safe and free passage for commercial ships. However, this memorandum later collapsed.
Iran and Oman were then scheduled to determine future management mechanisms and maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz. This point constitutes the basic background to the negotiations currently underway.
According to an analysis issued by the British research center Chatham House, this point in particular represents one of the most prominent points of disagreement. Iran may have understood the reference to the “sovereign rights of coastal states” as American acceptance of its demands aimed at strengthening its control over the strait. However, the Center believes that this interpretation is not based on an international legal basis, because these sovereign rights do not include restricting international traffic or imposing transit fees. The center says: “There can be no Iranian control over transit traffic and no Iranian fees on traffic.”
However, it may be possible to reach a face-saving settlement that includes limited fees based on the actual costs necessary to ensure maritime security, protection from environmental damage and other reasonable expenses.
But the form of this potential settlement is still controversial. Chatham House experts believe that one possible compromise solution is joint Iranian-Omani management of some maritime services.
On the other hand, the Institute for the Study of War warns that Iran will try to consolidate the influence it gained by disrupting shipping traffic and transform it into permanent influence in managing this waterway.
Controlling shipping traffic also constitutes an important pressure card for Trump against Iran. This is why he refuses to extend the memorandum of understanding. According to the BBC, Trump answered “no” when asked if he was seeking to extend the agreement.
Thus, Trump repeated the threats he made last May. At the end of that month, he had threatened that the United States would launch a military strike against Oman if the Sultanate, in cooperation with Iran, attempted to control the Strait of Hormuz.
This threat came after a report broadcast on Iranian state television that talked about an unofficial draft of an agreement under which Iran and Oman are supposed to jointly regulate navigation. “Oman will act like everyone else, or we will have to blow it up,” Trump said at the time.
These unusually severe threats target a country that has maintained open diplomatic channels in the Middle East for decades. "Oman has traditionally played the role of mediator between the Gulf Arab states and Iran," Markus Schneider, director of the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung's Middle East Peace and Security Project in Beirut, said in an interview with DW. The Sultanate has always maintained the closest relations with Tehran among other Gulf countries.
Stefan Lucas, founder of the analysis company Middle East Minds, believes that this is what distinguishes the country. He added in an interview with DW that "Oman is one of the few remaining countries in the region that still enjoys a relatively stable relationship with almost all parties to the conflict."
In this context, Dr. Aqeel Abbas, a researcher at the Washington Institute for Middle East Studies, says, “Oman is the American ally that is most worried about Iran because of its need for Iran. It is trying to reconcile two things: the attempt that Qatar made and failed on the one hand, and the attempt to be a mediator and ally of the United States on the other hand.”
He added in an interview with the Hadath Studio program, “The American pressure on Oman says do not give Iran a deal, even a nominal or partial one, to control the strait. If this happens, it will take many things from the United States because it depends on Oman to sign an agreement that respects international law.” What Washington expects from Oman is “an agreement that respects not paying fees and not preventing military ships from passing through the strait. The Iranians want to pass an agreement with Oman that does not allow military ships to pass except with the approval of one of the two parties, which is against international law,” says Dr. Aqeel.
Oman occupies a key role thanks to its location on the southern side of the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, the Sultanate maintains good relations with both Washington and Tehran, which is why it has repeatedly been a place for secret talks. At the beginning of this year, negotiations took place between the United States and Iran, but they ultimately failed due to a deep lack of trust between the two sides.
The situation is critical for Oman. As the country tries to maintain its role as a neutral mediator, it increasingly finds itself caught between fronts.
In this context, Schneider said, "Since the beginning of the war, Oman has been among the Gulf countries that has been pressing hard to reduce tensions." As is the case with the rest of the countries in the region, Oman fears being drawn into the conflict.
Lucas talks about a “worst-case scenario” for Muscat, as Oman depends on stable trade relations with China, India, Europe and neighboring countries. At the same time, Washington is increasing political pressure while its proximity to war threatens the country's security.
However, there is no indication that Oman is actually seeking joint control of the Strait of Hormuz with Iran. “Iran increasingly portrays the strait as shared Iranian-Omani waters,” Schneider says.
But in Oman itself this idea is viewed with suspicion as active participation in such measures conflicts with the interests of other Gulf states.
Lucas also considers the relevant reports unreliable. He says that this project is “to a large extent unrealistic. The government in Muscat has absolutely no interest in joint control with Iran. Rather, what is crucial is ensuring a safe and unobstructed shipping lane through the strait.”
For years, Saudi Arabia and the UAE have viewed Oman's special role with mixed feelings. On the one hand, they benefit from dialogue channels with Tehran, and on the other hand, they view the independent path taken by Muscat with suspicion.
At the same time, the realization is growing in the Gulf states that permanent stability cannot be achieved against Iran, but only in cooperation with it. “Iran is here to stay,” quotes the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a popular phrase among politicians in the region.
The Institute argues that economic interdependence can, in the long term, represent the most effective form of deterrence. Against this background, Oman's dialogue policy now appears in the eyes of many observers to be less than a special path, but rather a potential path towards the future.
This development is of particular importance for Oman, as the country benefits more than any other country in the region from stable relations with the largest possible number of actors.
“Oman in particular is particularly vulnerable due to its geographic location on the Strait of Hormuz,” Schneider says. Therefore, Muscat pays great attention to preventing any further escalation.
Trump's threats against Oman simultaneously highlight the situation in the United States. Schneider said, "Donald Trump's recent threats are receiving very negative reactions in the region."
He added that many observers have become more realistic towards American policy. Aggressive rhetoric harms Washington's credibility.
Lucas also sees this above all as a sign of growing uncertainty, saying: “Trump’s reaction to the reports allows conclusions to be drawn about the situation in the White House.
He added that at the same time, the recent Iranian attacks reinforced doubts about American security guarantees to the Gulf states.
However, a US attack on Oman is considered highly unlikely. Schneider refers to conversations he held with Omani experts who believe that these threats are an expression of the frustration prevailing in Washington. Launching a military strike against a partner and mediator for many years would further weaken US influence in the region.
Lucas also believes that launching a US military attack on Oman is unlikely, pointing out that the political and strategic importance of the Sultanate as a channel of dialogue between the parties to the conflict is too great to allow this. In his estimation, any attack would not only harm Oman, but would also significantly limit US diplomatic options in the entire region.
Thus, Oman faces a difficult task: it is trying to preserve its sovereignty, keep channels of dialogue open, and prevent further escalation. But in a region where the risk of misjudgment is increasing, this mediating role may be more important than ever.
