Many Ukrainians and Europeans took the news from Washington over the past weekend as a stab in the back by their ally, the United States. US President Donald Trump announced that an agreement had been reached with Russia regarding the purchase of Russian diesel fuel and a temporary easing of US sanctions imposed on Moscow. When Kiev issued sharp criticism in response, Trump again accused President Volodymyr Zelensky of not being willing to negotiate with Russian President Vladimir Putin about ending the war. That's why, according to Trump, it's time "for Ukraine to get a new leader who can make a deal."
Trump later announced an "energy truce" allegedly agreed upon between Ukraine and Russia. Kiev explained that this idea had not been discussed with Ukraine at all, but that it was ready to stop attacks on Russian energy infrastructure provided that Moscow did the same. “We are grateful to the United States and support the idea of an energy truce,” Zelensky stressed on October 12 during a video call with the Warsaw Security Forum. “Now Russia must also prove its approval of this truce.”
“Trump is not interested in supporting Ukraine”
Security expert Carlo Massala from the German Armed Forces University in Munich (UniBw M) believes that reports from the United States show that “Trump is not at all interested in supporting Ukraine, and in fact, American domestic policy and the relationship with Russia are more important to him than supporting Ukraine.” According to the expert, the American President is trying, through an agreement with Russia, to influence the course of the midterm elections in the United States scheduled to be held on November 3.
In the midterm elections, new elections are held for all seats in the House of Representatives and part of the seats in the Senate. Opinion polls indicate that Trump's Republican Party may lose its majority in the House of Representatives. It is also not ruled out that Republicans will lose their majority in the Senate as well. According to reports, American voters are dissatisfied with the rise in fuel prices, and it seems that the American President hopes to influence prices by importing diesel from Russia.
However, observers consider Donald Trump's hopes that Russian diesel shipments will affect prices in the United States are merely an illusion. “The quantity is so small that it will not affect prices at all,” says Thomas Jaeger of the University of Cologne, speaking to Channel 1 of German public television (ARD). According to this political science expert, the shipments scheduled before the midterm elections are not enough for even one day to cover the United States’ diesel needs. He stresses, "Even what will be shipped afterward, if it arrives at all, will not have any impact on prices." He adds that Trump only cares about “media image,” that is, showing voters that he wants to solve a problem that concerns them.
Will Russia benefit from the deal on the battlefield?
The main point that Kiev and EU countries criticize is that Russia will use revenues from the sale of diesel to finance its war against Ukraine. News of the agreement between Washington and Moscow came in a week that saw more than 150 civilians killed as a result of Russian attacks in Ukraine, including the bombing of a residential building in the city of Priluki and passenger buses in Kramatorsk.
However, Carlo Masala does not expect the agreement with the United States to have “any tangible positive effects at the military level” for Russia. It is noteworthy that Washington had temporarily suspended the sanctions imposed on the export of Russian oil immediately after the attacks by the United States and Israel on Iran in March of this year. “Despite the money Russia has and has received, it does not have a military strategy outlining how to achieve its advance in Donbass, for example. It is about the political impact and symbolism of the Americans making separate deals with the Russians at the expense of the Ukrainians,” the expert said.
US threats to halt intelligence sharing with Ukraine and obstruct the Priority Requirements List for Ukraine (PURL) program may provide additional cause for concern for Kiev if Ukraine does not stop its attacks on Russian oil refineries. At least reports in this regard are circulating in the media, citing high-ranking American officials. Through the “Priority Requirements List for Ukraine” (PURL) program, European countries obtain American weapons for Ukraine. The cessation of Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil facilities during the past 48 hours may be an indication that the Ukrainian leadership takes American threats seriously.
European alternatives to US poll data
However, Carlo Masala advises not to rush to conclusions. “Just because there are no strikes in one day does not necessarily mean that Kiev will comply,” he says. As for the possibility of the United States refraining from providing Ukraine with the reconnaissance data necessary to launch attacks on Russian territory, the consequences for Kiev will be “tragic,” but they can be mitigated by relying on European data, especially French. Although this data is “not as comprehensive as the US data,” the Ukrainian military is already using it to launch attacks on Russia.
Regarding the weapons that the Europeans obtain from the Americans for Ukraine within the framework of the “Priority Requirements List for Ukraine” (PURL) program, Masala mentions that their most important components, air defense interceptor missiles, have been no longer available to the Ukrainians almost since the beginning of the war with Iran.
Support for Ukraine comes from both American parties
In light of the midterm elections for the US Congress, experts draw attention to the fact that Ukraine enjoys broad support not only from Democrats, but also from Republicans. This is evident, among other things, in the adoption in the summer of this year of a joint law to tighten US sanctions on Russia, known as the “Graham Law,” named after its successor, the late Republican Representative Lindsey Graham.
This law, which Trump signed in September, gives the president a wide range of tools. It could impose sanctions on Russian officials, business oligarchs, financial institutions, and a secret Russian fleet used to circumvent oil export restrictions. It could also impose punitive tariffs on energy buyers from Russia.
Former American diplomat Daniel Freed said in an interview with DW: "Trump may hesitate to do so, but political forces, especially after the midterm elections, may put pressure on the government to work to end the war using available means." According to his opinion, the Graham Act and the 2022 law are effective tools against Russia.
In a joint statement, several bipartisan senators described the diesel agreement with Russia as illegal and called on the US government to "immediately correct its decision."
Prepared in Arabic by: M.A.M
