Analysts pointed out that the United States plans to establish a military base in Greenland and expand defense deployment, which is like erecting a "keep out" warning sign against potential military cooperation between China and Russia in the Arctic.
Hong Kong's "South China Morning Post" reported on the 27th that the United States, Denmark and Greenland signed a defense agreement on the 22nd, allowing Washington to build two new military bases on the world's largest island, while reaffirming Denmark's sovereignty over the island.
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The agreement updates and amends the 1951 defense agreement between Denmark and the United States, allowing the expansion and modernization of the Pituffik US Space Force Base in northwest Greenland and the establishment of additional military bases at Narsarsuaq and Mestersvig, but still requires the approval of Greenland and Denmark.
Narsarsuaq is a settlement in southern Greenland. It has a former civilian airport and a US Air Force base that closed in 1958. The local population is only a few dozen people.
The second base is planned to be located in Meistersvi in northeast Greenland, where the Danish special forces "Sirius Dog Sled Patrol" is currently stationed.
The defense agreement also calls for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) to increase its engagement in the Arctic and prohibits non-NATO countries from establishing manned or unmanned military installations in Greenland or maintaining military deployments there. In addition, these countries are prohibited from making any investments in Greenland that may threaten U.S. national security.
Before the signing ceremony, US President Trump said that the United States would "immediately begin" the process of developing large-scale military deployments in appropriate locations.
The melting of sea ice caused by climate change is increasingly increasing the strategic importance of the Arctic; an emerging Northern Sea Route (Northern Sea Route) is expected to become the shortest shipping lane connecting the Asia-Pacific region and Europe.
Greenland is located between the Arctic Ocean and the North Atlantic Ocean. Since the Cold War, Greenland has had important strategic and geopolitical significance for the United States and its NATO allies. It is a key line of defense against missile attacks and submarine operations.
Not only is it located in the center of the Arctic Ocean that separates North America and Russia, it is also adjacent to a narrow strip of the North Atlantic Ocean (with Iceland and the United Kingdom on the other side), the so-called "GIUK Gap" (Greenland-Iceland-UK Gap), which is a potential passage for the Russian Navy to enter the wider Atlantic Ocean.
Marc Lanteigne, a professor of political science at the Arctic University of Norway, pointed out that the new agreement not only allows the United States to expand military deployment in Greenland, but also calls for the expansion of NATO deployment. The provisions prohibiting non-NATO members from establishing any form of military facilities in Greenland, and should be allowed to exercise control over investments deemed to be strategically sensitive, are very targeted at China and Russia.
Landaigne said that while many elements of the agreement had already been written into the 1951 defense agreement, one of the key considerations in the Arctic was the need to monitor strategic waterways off the coast of Greenland. "The two new bases may also have a political role, highlighting that Washington is quite serious about deterring external threats or invasions."
Troy Bouffard, an assistant professor at the University of Alaska Fairbanks, said that the focus of the agreement is to "close the door" before China or Russia enter the Arctic; Narsarsuaq restores the southern airport and logistics node at the western end of the GIUK gap, while Meistersville provides the United States with an eastern stronghold for domain awareness, logistics maintenance and access to the Fram Strait. Strait, "it would be more accurate to think of them as enabling military deployment and surveillance."
Despite having no territory in the region, China positioned itself as a "near-Arctic state" in a 2018 policy report while strengthening ties with Russia in scientific research, resources, shipping routes and infrastructure, which could lead to increased Chinese military activity in the region.
In July 2024, Chinese and Russian bombers were first spotted conducting joint operations in the airspace off the coast of Alaska, prompting U.S. F-16 and F-35 fighter jets and Canadian CF-18 fighter jets to take off to intercept.
In the same month, the U.S. Coast Guard also discovered four Chinese naval vessels in the Bering Sea near the Aleutian Islands. In October 2024, the Chinese Coast Guard conducted joint patrols with Russia in the Arctic for the first time.
Landaigne pointed out that although neither Chinese or Russian armed forces are currently operating near Greenlandic waters, the United States plans to include Greenland in its proposed "Golden Dome" anti-missile defense network and deploy unmanned military facilities.
He said that the current activities of China and Russia in the Arctic are mainly concentrated in the Pacific Arctic, including the joint development of the "Polar Silk Road" connecting Northeast Asia and Northern Europe. However, as the central Arctic becomes more open to maritime traffic due to the melting of the ice, NATO has regarded monitoring military activities in the Arctic as a more urgent need. "The final result is a 'keep away from strangers' warning sign against U.S. adversaries."
Bouffard said that the strategic interests of expanding U.S. military deployment in the region will be to reduce the opportunities for China and Russia to exploit surveillance loopholes, and to buy more warning time and better response options for the United States and its allies, making it more difficult for the increasingly close cooperation between China and Russia to be transformed into military opportunities and advantages in the region.
