Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula lead rejection in Datafolha survey, with Augusto Cury on the rise

The two leaders in the race for this year's Planalto are also ahead in the rejection dispute. According to Datafolha, 47% of voters say they will not vote at all for Flávio Bolsonaro (PL), while 45% say the same about Lula (PT).

New in this new round of the institute's surveys, Augusto Cury (Avante) records a rejection of 9%. It is 16% for Romeu Zema (Novo), 15% for Renan Santos (Missão) and 13% for Ronaldo Caiado (PSD). The margin of error is plus or minus two points.

Next, Samara Martins (UP) and Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO) appear, both with 9% rejection each — the same rate as Cury. Edmilson Costa (PCB) and Clariana Barão (DC) scored 8% each, followed by Hertz Dias (PSTU), with 7%, and Wilson Grassi (Democrat), with 6%.

They say they wouldn't vote for any candidate or that they reject all 1% of those heard. Those who say they don't know are 3%.

Datafolha interviewed 2,002 people over the age of 16 in 125 cities this Tuesday (1st) and Wednesday (2nd). The research, registered with the Superior Electoral Court under code BR-03669/2026, was commissioned by TV Globo and Folha.

Two weeks ago, researchers had determined that Flávio's rejection was at 46% and Lula's was at 45%, maintaining with some variations what has been seen since former president Jair Bolsonaro released his son from jail as his candidate for this year's election.

Cury, at the time, was discarded by 8% of voters, but he was also little known. A strategy to publicize his name on the networks increased his number of followers on Instagram by 2.5 million people, and he has just 35 seconds per block during free election hours.

His campaign denies that the promotion through influencers was something paid or using robots, as his opponents suspect.

Of the main candidates, former governors Romeu Zema (16%) and Ronaldo Caiado (14%) were technically tied in the previous round, in addition to the name of Missão, Renan Santos (14%).

The scenario crystallizes the notion that this is a contest of rejections and leaves a narrow margin in the dispute for undecided votes between Lula and Flávio, in addition to raising doubts about the growth space for Cury and other candidates.

In general, marketers see a rejection rate above 40% as fatal for candidates. The risk increases when it is combined with weak voting intentions, especially in second rounds against less rejected candidates.