Shipping to Roraima could increase by up to 50% between the end of 2026 and the beginning of 2027 due to El Niño

A study by the Industry Observatory of the Federation of Industries of the State of Roraima (FIER) also points out that deliveries that previously took 15 to 20 days can exceed 45 days.

Freight to Roraima could increase by up to 50% between the end of 2026 and the beginning of 2027. The estimate is contained in a FIER study released in August.

Due to the drought in the Amazon rivers, cargo will need to be transferred to ferries. This will cause delays in supply, which could range from 15 to 45 days.

The end of the rainy season must be anticipated by the phenomenon. As a result, the state's vulnerability will increase from the last 3 months of 2026.

The report divides the state into 5 groups of municipalities according to the expected impacts. They include water shortages, drying up of streams and the risk of fires.

Roraima could see an increase of up to 50% in freight prices at the end of 2026 and beginning of 2027 due to El Niño, according to research by the Industry Observatory of the Federation of Industries of the State of Roraima (FIER) released in August this year.

El Niño is a climate phenomenon caused by the abnormal warming of the waters of the Pacific Ocean. It can alter the circulation of the atmosphere and change rainfall, temperature and wind patterns in different parts of the world.

The phenomenon, in addition to increasing freight costs, can delay supply. Roraima receives products imported via BR-174 from Manaus, but the merchandise that previously arrived by ship has to be transferred to ferries in shallower sections due to the drought.

Understand: the effects of the El Niño phenomenon established in 2026 are expected to last until the first quarter of 2027, contributing to a more intense drought peak in the Amazon rivers next year. The information was released by the Brazilian Geological Survey (SGB).

According to the FIER report, the need to transfer cargo increases operation costs and can lead to the charging of the so-called "Dry Tax". As a result, road and river freight destined for Roraima can be 25% to 50% more expensive.

The supply period, normally 15 to 20 days, can exceed 45 days during this period.

Roraima recorded intense rains in the first half of 2026, which led the Rio Branco to reach the flood alert level in June. However, the study predicts that the transition to El Niño should bring forward the end of the rainy season and increase the state's vulnerability from the last three months of the year onwards.

Impacts of El Nino in the municipalities of Roraima

The report divides Roraima into five groups of municipalities, according to the main impacts expected during the period.

In Rorainópolis, São Luiz do Anauá, São João da Baliza and Caroebe, the report highlights problems in water availability and indicates the need for long-term adaptation measures.

In Boa Vista and Cantá, rising temperatures could put pressure on water resources and affect water supply and family livestock farming.

In Amajari, Alto Alegre and Pacaraima, the report predicts that streams could dry up and fires could advance through the mountainous regions. The scenario can make access to communities difficult and harm indigenous and family agriculture and livestock farming.

In Mucajaí, Iracema and Caracaraí, areas that have already been deforested may become more vulnerable to fires during the drought associated with El Niño. According to the report, the fire can affect pastures and cause weight loss in the herd.

In Bonfim, Normandia and Uiramutã, the loss of soil moisture and the disappearance of water sources can force cattle to travel greater distances under high temperatures. According to the report, the situation increases the risk of animal deaths due to thermal exhaustion.