The effects of El Niño on the European continent are generally less direct and more difficult to delineate than those observed in tropical regions. However, the available simulations indicate a possible season characterized by fewer occasions of snow at lower altitudes, while precipitation could occur in the form of rain due to milder temperatures. The calculations relating to the winter of 2026-2027 suggest in particular an important role of the western and Atlantic currents, capable of transporting relatively temperate air masses. The result could be poorer snow cover in the plains and mid-altitude mountains, especially in central and southern Europe. For the Alps, however, conditions could become favorable for the formation of a substantial snow cover, especially above 1,800-2,000 metres. Further north, where temperatures are usually lower, snow could remain more present.
The projections for December 2026 outline a picture characterized by below-average snowfall quantities in most of the flat areas. The currents coming from the west could bring heavy rainfall, but accompanied by temperature values that are too high to favor the transformation into snow. A similar scenario could arise again in January 2027. The combination of a possible southern anticyclone and the westerly flow would help keep European temperatures relatively mild, further reducing the possibility of snowfall at low altitudes. However, there would be some exceptions: higher-than-normal accumulations could occur in the highest mountainous areas of central-eastern Europe.
The picture could become even more evident in February 2027, traditionally one of the periods in which snow affects a large portion of the continent. The projections indicate the possibility of a reduction in snow cover in much of Europe, linked above all to the persistence of anticyclonic conditions. The anomalies could especially spare the northern and north-eastern regions, where the colder climate could still allow snow episodes.
The contrast with North America could be stark. It is precisely in this part of the world that, during El Niño episodes, the effects on atmospheric circulation can more frequently translate into particularly heavy and intense snowfall. The seasonal forecasts therefore outline an almost mirror-like situation compared to the European one: on the one hand, greater possibilities of exceptional snowfall, on the other, a season potentially characterized by more limited snowfall at low altitudes.
At the root of it all is the anomalous behavior of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. In the first 250 meters of depth, a downward Kelvin wave was identified, associated with the redistribution of warm and cold water masses. The strong currents coming from the west push the warmer surface water towards the east, simultaneously favoring the rise of colder and deeper water masses. This mechanism contributes to the progressive intensification of the thermal anomaly in the Pacific and accompanies the evolution of the phenomenon.
El Niño is one of the planet's main thermal anomalies and occurs when the surface waters of the equatorial Pacific warm beyond normal, changing the regime of trade winds. The consequences can spread on a global scale: torrential rains and floods in some areas, droughts and fires in others.
Ocean warming can also alter marine ecosystems, reducing nutrient availability and putting pressure on fisheries, food chains and harvests.
To talk about Super El Niño, seasonal thermal anomalies must exceed the 2°C threshold and remain at those levels for several months. The episode currently underway presents particularly relevant characteristics: in the latest analyzes of the tropical Pacific, peaks above 6°C compared to usual values have been identified. These are values of exceptional intensity, higher than those observed in numerous episodes of recent decades and such as to fuel the hypothesis that the event could go down in history as one of the strongest ever recorded, if not the most intense ever.
The anomalous warming of the Pacific is not expected to end in the short term. In fact, projections based on previous episodes indicate a continuation of the anomaly in the coming months, with maximum intensity in the Northern Hemisphere between the end of autumn and the beginning of winter, approximately towards December. According to the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), the event that developed between 2026 and 2027 is of considerable size. The most intense effects are expected towards the end of 2026, while the influence of the phenomenon could last until February 2027.
What is especially worrying is the combination of intensity, duration and breadth of the effects. For the WMO, the probability that El Niño will continue in the coming months is "exceptionally high, close to 100%". The phenomenon normally recurs every two to seven years, but the current episode presents unusual characteristics.
Warming of the central-eastern Pacific could change temperatures and precipitation in several areas of the world, locally increasing the risk of floods, droughts and extreme heat. Europe and Italy could also be affected, making the evolution of the next few months crucial to understanding what the winter of 2026-2027 will be like.
