The US Navy is erecting a "shield" in Hormuz, protecting oil tankers against threats from Iran, helping to reverse the situation in the Strait.
Data from Kpler, an organization that tracks ships using identification signals and satellites, shows that more than 80% of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz in the past two weeks used the southern route, a maritime corridor recognized by the International Maritime Organization that passes through Oman's territorial waters.
That is in contrast to what happened a month ago, when almost no ships used this route due to concerns about the risk of being attacked by Iran with missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). Homayoun Falakshahi, head of crude oil industry analysis at Kpler, said that ship owners seem to have more confidence in the protective umbrella of the US navy when choosing this route.
The US Navy began implementing a campaign to escort oil ships through the strait in May. By July, oil ships following routes protected by the US were transporting about 5 million barrels per day out of the Persian Gulf, according to analysts.
US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said last week that the amount of oil shipped through the Strait combined with the amount of oil diverted around the region reached about 15 million barrels per day, approaching the pre-war average of 20 million barrels per day.
"This is an unexpected success. They have maintained operations in the southern corridor extremely effectively, despite Iran's attacks," said Michelle Wiese Bockmann, shipping analyst at maritime analysis company Windward.
To protect oil tankers passing through this corridor, the US Central Command (CENTCOM) has deployed many warships, helicopters, aircraft and weapon systems to intercept Iranian UAVs and missiles.
The US Navy is deploying about 20 warships in the Gulf of Oman, including two aircraft carriers Abraham Lincoln and George H.W. Bush, escorting destroyers and many other destroyers participated in the blockade of Iranian seaports under orders from President Donald Trump.
US forces also coordinate with Gulf partners to carry out ship protection campaigns. Every day, they make a list of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz to the Arabian Sea and vice versa, from there making a security plan.
When night falls, the tankers are arranged to move in a large convoy in the outbound direction within a certain time frame, followed by a large convoy moving in the inward direction in a separate time frame. These convoys will move along the southern corridor according to the instructions of the US military and often proactively turn off the navigation system (AIS) to avoid detection by Iran.
This plan helps about 15-20 oil tankers enter and exit the strait every night. CENTCOM said it has so far assisted more than 1,000 ships to safely pass through the strait.
Joshua Tallis, an analyst at the Center for Naval Analysis (CNA), said that under normal conditions, protecting and maintaining such a maritime corridor requires a lot of manpower and equipment, while the risk level is very high, because if Iran detects and hits a cargo ship, the flow of goods will certainly be paralyzed.
However, CENTCOM recently conducted a two-week intensive air campaign that significantly degraded Iran's radar and maritime surveillance capabilities near Hormuz, making the escort operation easier and less risky.
Due to a serious decline in surveillance capabilities, Iran was forced to "blindly" launch UAVs and missiles into areas where ships were suspected to be passing through without knowing the exact target, Axios quoted a US official source.
This led to a serious decrease in Iran's target hit rate. In June, at least 15 ships traveling along the southern corridor were attacked, leaving 16 sailors injured and two dead. But in August, just one ship was hit while sailing near Oman, killing one person, according to UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) data.
"Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) may be a nuisance, but they do not control this strait. We are the ones in control," a US official said.
Meanwhile, the IRGC claims it is still in control of the Strait of Hormuz and threatens to increase attacks on ships using the southern corridor. Iran requires ships passing through Hormuz to use the northern route and be under the control of its security forces.
Iranian National Assembly Chairman Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf announced on August 18 that the Strait of Hormuz "remains closed until the US implements the commitments" made in the June memorandum, including lifting the seaport blockade and releasing Iran's frozen assets.
Risks have not been eliminated
Although the maritime channel through Hormuz has become busier thanks to the US protection campaign, many major shipping companies still choose not to take risks until the parties reach a long-term ceasefire agreement. That makes ship traffic through this sea route still much lower than before the war.
This concern is not unfounded. Dynacom, a Greek company, is one of the few transport units that accepts the use of the southern corridor under assurances from the US navy. However, two Dynacom tankers were hit by an attack on July 19, of which one ship was abandoned.
A number of ships of the United Arab Emirates National Oil Corporation (ADNOC) were also continuously attacked while moving through the southern corridor. ADNOC said last week that 18 of its ships were attacked during the fighting, leaving one crew member dead and 20 injured.
Analysts do not rule out the possibility of Iran escalating raids on maritime activities in the region, as well as oil and gas facilities in Gulf countries.
"The threat from Iran to this strait will remain great in the near future," said Mona Yacoubian, Director of the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
In addition, the US Navy is also facing many difficulties in providing supplies for the oil tanker protection campaign. Because the main US logistics base in Manama, the capital of Bahrain, was almost completely destroyed by Iranian raids from the early days of the conflict, US warships had to travel more than 5 days to Diego Garcia island in the Indian Ocean for resupply.
Despite the above difficulties, Colonel Tim Hawkins, CENTCOM spokesman, affirmed that the US campaign is still effective. "Overall, the number of ships passing through is still higher than before," he said.
President Trump also told Axios on August 19 that a large amount of oil is moving through the Strait of Hormuz. "The Iranians still have some ability to fight back, but overall they are very weakened," he said.
Mr. Trump previously posted a map of the Strait of Hormuz with the caption "new US territory" on the social network Truth Social. However, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi rejected the US President's statement.
"The Strait of Hormuz cannot be captured with a social media post, an aircraft carrier, a decree or an election speech. Iran is not afraid of threats and does not yield to shows of strength," Mr. Gharibabadi said.
