HDE consumer barometer: German consumers doubt the upswing

Dusseldorf. Despite the positive economic reports in recent weeks, German consumers do not believe in a self-sustaining upswing. This is what the HDE consumer barometer signals for September.

The index rose by 0.52 points to 94.7 points, but this only made up for the decline from the previous month. The barometer is now around one point lower than in September 2025 and two points below the level in September 2024. The indicator is calculated monthly by the Handelsblatt Research Institute for the HDE trade association. It is based on a representative survey of around 1,600 households.

Recently there have been increasingly better economic signals. According to revised data from the Federal Statistical Office, the German economy has already grown for three quarters in a row. The series of four increases in the Ifo business climate index suggests further recovery. Several economic research institutes significantly increased their growth forecast for Germany - and the economic expectations of the consumers surveyed also rose compared to the previous month.

But consumers are very worried about rising prices. According to initial calculations, the cost of living rose by 2.9 percent in August. Detailed nationwide data is not yet available. However, data from North Rhine-Westphalia shows that energy prices developed in the opposite direction: while electricity and gas became cheaper by 5.6 and 1.2 percent over the year, heating oil rose significantly by 33.6 percent. Drivers had to pay 26.5 percent more for fuel than in the same month last year.